Apolyton Fantasy Football

[Berzerker]

Berz is a constant golfer and heavy fantasy player. It's his busy time of the year.
When's the club championship, Berz? What flight you playing?

1st flight, still a 6 hc. we play aug 20-21

[Al B. Sure!]

I am actually nervous about this, I don't even care if I win or how I place, I am more worried about getting laughed at for my picks!

I've been reading all I can, and looking at various websites (information overload.....the internet can be a hinderance at times).

Anyone care to share their favourite websites for fantasy drafting so I can cull out some of the crap that I have been reading and get it down to a couple sites with reliable information?

/me

If they play for the Eagles, pick them. That's probably the way to go this year.

[-Jrabbit]

Just look at the DST draft to get a sense of how the draft flows, Sparrowhawk.
You've played other fantasy sports, right? You'll be fine.

[Sparrowhawk]

Yes, I have been in several NHL fantasy drafts, so no worries on the mechanics of the draft itself or managing my team. I have also read through both of last years NFL drafts from Apolyton, and been following this years DST draft with interest so I think I get some of the strategy. I'm more worried about my player knowledge failing me more than anything. It seems the first few rounds you can't really go too wrong, but it will quickly get tough from there, but you are right I will be fine....just nervous...but that's just me

/me

[Jaguar]

I changed it to the same time August 27th. Let me know if this is better or worse.

Thank you thank you thank you!

[ColdWizard]

Yes, I have been in several NHL fantasy drafts, so no worries on the mechanics of the draft itself or managing my team. I have also read through both of last years NFL drafts from Apolyton, and been following this years DST draft with interest so I think I get some of the strategy. I'm more worried about my player knowledge failing me more than anything. It seems the first few rounds you can't really go too wrong, but it will quickly get tough from there, but you are right I will be fine....just nervous...but that's just me

/me

With injuries and players under/over-performing for various reasons, luck can triumph over knowledge. My pick of Darren McFadden last year, for example. I very nearly took the RB that was the very next pick instead (who ended up injured for the season).

[Jaguar]

Luck plays a huge role, even in the draft, which is the most "strategy"-oriented part.

I've come in first place in 3/9 leagues here and at FFZ since 2007. I do have drafting "knowledge" advantage over most people, but my best teams have been boosted substantially by luck. I can highlight a few examples of this from my drafting history:

2010 D/ST League (Record: 15-0)
Pick number: 21st overall
Who I picked: Jamaal Charles (1935 yards, 1st Team All-Pro, All-Time Yards per Carry Record)
Who I almost picked: Randy Moss (393 yards, kicked off of two teams)

Had Albie picked Jamaal Charles with the 20th pick instead of Randy Moss, I would have taken Randy Moss. There was no obvious reason to believe that Randy Moss's dominant role in the Patriots offense would be reduced, much less cut entirely. I legitimately understood the factors [historically easy schedule, incredible talent] that led to Jamaal Charles's 3rd-place finish among RBs. I did not understand the factors that led to Moss being worthless. I did have a "knowledge" advantage over other people, in that I correctly believed that Charles was very undervalued. I didn't have a knowledge advantage on Moss, and a single changed pick in that draft could have led me to him.

2007 IDP League (Record: 13-1)
Pick number: 20th overall
Who I picked: Tom Brady (MVP, All-Time TD Record, 786 fantasy points)
Who I almost picked: Laurence Maroney (951 yards, 6 touchdowns)

I saw the 2007 Patriots coming. I took at least two Patriots on every team in 2007, much like I did with the Chiefs in 2010. Ridiculously easy schedule? Check. Hall of Fame QB entering the 7th year-9th year peak? Check. RB prospect entering 2nd year? Check. Offensive line continuity? Check. Useful, underrated acquisitions at WR? Check and check. Fantasy experts thought Brady would throw around 27 TDs, one off from his career high of 28. I thought they were underestimating him by about 4-5 TDs. They were actually underestimating him by 23. I thought Laurence Maroney would be the primary beneficiary of a historically excellent offense. Well, he wasn't. But he was picked before I had a chance to take him, so Brady was my consolation prize.

I actually did get Maroney in the D/ST league, but my other picks pulled through for me and won the championship.

[Berzerker]

Saturday August 27th, 6:30 PM EDT for the live auction

works for me too

[MRT144]

Luck plays a huge role, even in the draft, which is the most "strategy"-oriented part.

I've come in first place in 3/9 leagues here and at FFZ since 2007. I do have drafting "knowledge" advantage over most people, but my best teams have been boosted substantially by luck. I can highlight a few examples of this from my drafting history:

2010 D/ST League (Record: 15-0)
Pick number: 21st overall
Who I picked: Jamaal Charles (1935 yards, 1st Team All-Pro, All-Time Yards per Carry Record)
Who I almost picked: Randy Moss (393 yards, kicked off of two teams)

Had Albie picked Jamaal Charles with the 20th pick instead of Randy Moss, I would have taken Randy Moss. There was no obvious reason to believe that Randy Moss's dominant role in the Patriots offense would be reduced, much less cut entirely. I legitimately understood the factors [historically easy schedule, incredible talent] that led to Jamaal Charles's 3rd-place finish among RBs. I did not understand the factors that led to Moss being worthless. I did have a "knowledge" advantage over other people, in that I correctly believed that Charles was very undervalued. I didn't have a knowledge advantage on Moss, and a single changed pick in that draft could have led me to him.

2007 IDP League (Record: 13-1)
Pick number: 20th overall
Who I picked: Tom Brady (MVP, All-Time TD Record, 786 fantasy points)
Who I almost picked: Laurence Maroney (951 yards, 6 touchdowns)

I saw the 2007 Patriots coming. I took at least two Patriots on every team in 2007, much like I did with the Chiefs in 2010. Ridiculously easy schedule? Check. Hall of Fame QB entering the 7th year-9th year peak? Check. RB prospect entering 2nd year? Check. Offensive line continuity? Check. Useful, underrated acquisitions at WR? Check and check. Fantasy experts thought Brady would throw around 27 TDs, one off from his career high of 28. I thought they were underestimating him by about 4-5 TDs. They were actually underestimating him by 23. I thought Laurence Maroney would be the primary beneficiary of a historically excellent offense. Well, he wasn't. But he was picked before I had a chance to take him, so Brady was my consolation prize.

I actually did get Maroney in the D/ST league, but my other picks pulled through for me and won the championship.

Dont forget the 8th round Arian Foster pick last year.

[Jaguar]

That is also a sort of luck. There I knew that I wanted Foster. I'm an AFC South fan, and I had seen every snap of his brief NFL career. I knew he was a good running back, and I took him in 3/3 leagues. But all that means is that I valued him a little bit more than anyone else in the league did.

I certainly get credit for taking him, but I was also lucky, just like Scott Pioli was lucky in the 2000 NFL draft. Pioli obviously liked Tom Brady - he drafted him to be on his football team. But he did it with one of his sixth-round picks. Pioli liked Brady - but not as much as he liked Dave Stachelski, Jeff Marriott, and Antwan Harris. With each of those picks he risked losing the second-greatest QB of the last 25 years.

He gets credit for valuing Brady higher than others did, but even he was so worried about losing out on Dave Stachelski that he was willing to risk Brady over him. Mr. Pioli is very, very lucky that nobody else took Brady in the intervening period. "I would have taken Brady at pick 199 if he was there" wouldn't have won him any games.

I was smart for wanting Foster in the eighth. But I was lucky that nobody wanted him just a little bit more.

[-Jrabbit]

Great draft stories, Jaguar.

[Al B. Sure!]

The funny thing is, Jaguar, and if you go back to the thread you can see, I thought you reached big time with Charles as a 2nd round pick. Not because he didn't have that potential (I made sure I got him and got him cheap for my league for money) but because I didn't think the market appreciated him. I thought he'd be a 4th rounder at the earliest and that you could have gotten him then and saved your 2nd rounder for a 'sure-thing', though Moss shows how hollow 'sure-things' are.

My exact post:

Jamaal Charles is going to be good but he would've still been there in the 3rd unless one of the next few pickers are in love with the guy. There's a number of RB's that are safer bets than Charles that I would've expected to be taken before him. And by a number, I mean 5 or 6.

None of those safer bets (which included Ryan Grant and Shonn Greene ) amounted to anything, though.

Jaguar

[Sparrowhawk]

...which means the IDP League draft order is:

6. Vicious Rabbits (-Jrabbit)

I'm 9th in IDP (12 teams) and have no problem finding 16 players, any two of whom I'll be happy to base a team around. After that, it's a quasi-random crapshoot anyway.

Hopefully you are equally able to find 19 players, any two of whom you'll be happy with.

/me

[-Jrabbit]

Senior moment. There are easily 20+ players I'd be fine with.

But I do have rethink draft strategy. 6th vs 9th is a significant difference.

[ColdWizard]

I don't want to intrude in the DST draft thread so:

@Sloww: