NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Off Season

[flash9286]

That is what I thought, but then it looked like the D/ST was trending up for a section, but just a bunch of tightly bunched D/st point totals.

[flash9286]

Also interesting to note is that drop in QB point totals for team to team is greatest for the teams with the best QBs, and then the teams with the worst QBs all have relativity similar QB point totals. The RB and WR lines are more flat for the teams with most RB and WR points.

[Al B. Sure!]

Also interesting to note is that drop in QB point totals for team to team is greatest for the teams with the best QBs, and then the teams with the worst QBs all have relativity similar QB point totals. The RB and WR lines are more flat for the teams with most RB and WR points.

Flash, are you color blind? I mean I am but I'm pretty sure the RB line is the steep one with the big drops then the leveling off whereas the QB line is flat for the top 6 then starts making big drops.

[flash9286]

Flash, are you color blind? I mean I am but I'm pretty sure the RB line is the steep one with the big drops then the leveling off whereas the QB line is flat for the top 6 then starts making big drops.

Apparently, I am.

[Al B. Sure!]

MRT, the separating out of the Flex flaws this analysis. Like I said, how do we know that the RB line isn't so steep because of either the distribution of RB's (maybe the top 6 fantasy teams at RB had multiple real life starters in their platoon whereas the bottom teams had CJ Spiller, Cadillac Williams, and Brandon Jackson *cough*) or because some of the bottom RB teams had 3 or more okay RB's which they flexed (this would understate their RB points)?

For example, I flexed an RB almost every week. I had Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, LaGarrette Blount, and Shonn Greene. Wherever I stand on the RB line would be even higher if my weekly flexed RB was included in the RB line.

[Al B. Sure!]

The reason I think the RB line flattens out considerably is because that's when you get into the Brandon Jackson, Felix Jones, etc. territory. Guys who barely are on the field. I believe the top RB team was Jaguar's with Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, AND Mike Tolbert (who was a TD machine for a while).

When you have only 32 starting RB's in the league and 3 of them (well, 4 for a while, because Tolbert did start many games and he put up huge fantasy numbers for several weeks) are on one team in a 14-team league... that's a recipe for one steep RB line!

[flash9286]

From another one of MRT's posts:



MRT made a lot of posts with graphs in last year's FF thread.

[MRT144]

The reason I think the RB line flattens out considerably is because that's when you get into the Brandon Jackson, Felix Jones, etc. territory. Guys who barely are on the field. I believe the top RB team was Jaguar's with Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, AND Mike Tolbert (who was a TD machine for a while).

When you have only 32 starting RB's in the league and 3 of them (well, 4 for a while, because Tolbert did start many games and he put up huge fantasy numbers for several weeks) are on one team in a 14-team league... that's a recipe for one steep RB line!

And that's why I looked at the top 60 and eliminated QBs.

[Al B. Sure!]

ok

[MRT144]

Okay. I still think the best QB platoon getting 2.5x more points than the worst QB platoon is a bit much, whatever the deviation is for other positions.

I'll post the QB thing in a minute but might I remind you, you said Favre was a gamble and thought it was high risk, high reward and it failed.

[Al B. Sure!]

It was high risk because he could've retired... not because I foresaw even the possibility of a complete breakdown A lot of people said Favre would have a worse season than 2009 but anyone who says they predicted that sort of free-fall is a liar. That came completely out of left field.

Regardless, look at QB team #14 there and compare it to #1. That's a bigger gap than that between the #1 and #14 teams at RB and WR (when you exclude the flex points)

[MRT144]

And to help you out I'm going to quote a post of yours

Jonny
QB: Eli Manning, Vince Young
RB: Chris Johnson, Michael Bush, Chester Taylor
WR: Desean Jackson, Chad Ochocinco, Percy Harvin, Jerricho Cotchery, Louis Murphy, Josh Cribbs
TE: Kellen Winslow, Kevin Boss
D/ST: Steelers, Colts
K: Mason Crosby

Berzerker
QB: Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, Steve Slaton, Kareem Huggins
WR: Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, Dexter McCluster, Donnie Avery, Greg Camarillo
TE: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen
D/ST: Jets
K: Rob Bironas

Snoopy369
QB: Jay Cutler, Chad Henne
RB: Ray Rice, Pierre Thomas, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, Fred Taylor
WR: Roddy White, Malcolm Floyd, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams (TB), Anthony Gonzalez
TE: John Carlson
D/ST: Ravens, Dolphins
K: Robbie Gould

Flash9286
QB: Kevin Kolb, David Garrard
RB: Adrian Peterson, Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Johnson
WR: Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Braylon Edwards, Devin Thomas, Golden Tate
TE: Chris Cooley
D/ST: Denver, Patriots
K: Dan Carpenter

Jaguar
QB: Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel, Matthew Stafford
RB: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Clinton Portis, Arian Foster
WR: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, TJ Houshamdzadeh, Steve Breaston
TE: Heath Miller, Jeremy Shockey
D/ST: Bears, Cardinals
K: Ryan Succup

Al B. Sure!
QB: Brett Favre, Jason Campbell
RB: Frank Gore, Shonn Greene, Fred Jackson, Marion Barber
WR: Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree, Chaz Schilens, Devin Aromashodu, Bernard Berrian, Jabar Gaffney
TE: Zach Miller (OAK), Tony Scheffler
D/ST: Browns
K: Lawrence Tynes

MRT
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore
RB: CJ Spiller, Jerome Harrison, Tim Hightower, Darren Sproles
WR: Calvin Johnson, Marques Colston, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Mohamed Massaquoi, James Jones, Legedu Naanee
TE: Antonio Gates
D/ST: Chargers
K: Sebastian Janikowski

Spaced Cowboy
QB: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart
RB: Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Ben Tate, Kevin Smith, Julius Jones
WR: Steve Smith (CAR), Mike Sims-Walker, Nate Burleson, Davone Bess, Roy Williams
TE: Jermichael Finley, Todd Heap
D/ST: Cowboys
K: Nate Kaeding

OzzyKP
QB: Drew Brees, Trent Edwards
RB: Cedric Benson, Ricky Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Donald Brown, Willis McGahee
WR: Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Eddie Royal, Victor Cruz
TE: Dallas Clark, Jermaine Gresham
D/ST: Eagles, Bills
K: David Akers

joncha
QB: Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton
RB: Rashard Mendenhall, Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, Leon Washington
WR: Sidney Rice, Lee Evans, Robert Meachem, Julian Edelman
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe, Brandon Pettigrew
D/ST: Packers, Seahawks
K: Garrett Hartley

duke o'york
QB: Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck
RB: Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Jacobs, John Conner, Jason Snelling
WR: Miles Austin, Hines Ward, Demaryius Thomas, Chris Chambers
TE: Brent Celek, Benjamin Watson
D/ST: Vikings, Saints
K: Ryan Longwell, Kris Brown

Imran
QB: Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Steven Jackson, Beanie Wells, Montario Hardesty, Bernard Scott
WR: Steve Smith (NYG), Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson
TE: Tony Gonzalez
D/ST: Bengals, Texans
K: Matt Prater

Guynemer
QB: Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez
RB: Jonathon Stewart, Felix Jones, Laurence Maroney, Correll Buckhalter
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Terrell Owens, Austin Collie, Mario Manningham
TE: Jason Witten, Dustin Keller
D/ST: 49ers, Buccaneers
K: Adam Vinatieri

Slowwhand
QB: Tom Brady, Sam Bradford
RB: Ryan Matthews, Jahvid Best, Thomas Jones, Cadillac Williams, Toby Gerhart
WR: Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver, Santonio Holmes, Dez Bryant, Kevin Walter
TE: Owen Daniels
D/ST: Giants, Panthers
K: Stephen Gostkowski

[MRT144]

It was high risk because he could've retired... not because I foresaw even the possibility of a complete breakdown A lot of people said Favre would have a worse season than 2009 but anyone who says they predicted that sort of free-fall is a liar. That came completely out of left field.

Regardless, look at QB team #14 there and compare it to #1. That's a bigger gap than that between the #1 and #14 teams at RB and WR (when you exclude the flex points)

Why would you exclude flex points? I provided a comparison with and without for a reason to see how succesful each team was when utilizing their flex at either RB or WR.

[Al B. Sure!]

Why would you exclude flex points?

The dilemma is they're not distributed between RB and WR equally. For example, Jaguar got what looks like 680 points from all his RB's but that includes him getting 200 or so from a third RB which he flexed 90% of the time. The worst at RB (Imran) got barely more than 200 points but never flexed an RB any game that entire season; he flexed WR's 100% of the time.

For our purposes, what do you compare to determine just how steep the RB line is? Jaguar's 680 points from 2.9 RB's to Imran's 200 points from 2 RB's? Or Jaguar's 480 points from 2 RB's to Imran's 200 points from 2 RB's?

Get what I'm saying? The former would give a much steeper line than the latter but that's because Jaguar had a third RB contributing to that point total!

[MRT144]

I think you can blame Joncha for everything BTW.