College Football 2010: So it begins

[SlowwHand]

Arkansas looks like they're going to slaughter S. Carolina.

[Tuberski]

Texas A&M is choking.

ACK!

[Guynemer]

The door is open.

If Oregon loses (still has to play Arizona and at Oregon State), or if Auburn loses (Iron Bowl, but really no game in the SEC is same with that defense), there is a good chance we'll see either TCU or Boise State in the big one, now that Bama is out of the picture.



Stanford is straight-up spanking Arizona.

[gjramsey]

Woo Pig Sooie!!!!

[reismark]

If Oregon loses (still has to play Arizona and at Oregon State), or if Auburn loses (Iron Bowl, but really no game in the SEC is same with that defense), there is a good chance we'll see either TCU or Boise State in the big one, now that Bama is out of the picture.

Not ready to say that until the last of the historical BCS whores (Oklahoma) is out of the picture. Rooting hard for A&M to finish the job here.

Alabama's the only real threat to Auburn at this point. Georgia and whichever of South Carolina or Florida emerges as the challenger in the SEC championship will be swept away by Auburn's offense no problem. Oregon has Arizona & Oregon State to deal with as threats.

[Guynemer]

So long, Utes. And then some.

Next week:

Oregon at Cal: Well, here's the thing. It's at Berkeley. Cal has been one of the most up-and-down teams in the country. Oregon typically gets upset at least once during the Pac-10 season. If the good Bears show up, if Oregon has a bit of a letdown, if the crowd really gets going, if Oregon suffers some key injuries... the Ducks would still win by a couple scores. Odds of Oregon victory: 90%

Auburn vs. Georgia: Auburn's defense is bad. Maybe not epically, terrifically, gob-smackingly bad like the Michigan D, but it sure as **** isn't good. The Bulldogs have scored at least 31 points in each of its last five games, and are desperately trying to salvage something of their season. Auburn could be looking ahead to the Iron Bowl in another couple weeks. This is a major potential trap game for the Tigers. 60%

TCU vs. San Diego State: This is the best Aztecs teams in, well, ever. As such, they should be able to hold the Frogs to a 40-point margin, at worst. 99%

Boise State at Idaho: The Vandals see the Broncos as their #1 rival; the Broncos can't wait to drop them and the rest of the WAC to move up to the MWC. They want to beat the Broncos real, real bad. The problem is that they are real, real, real awful. >99%



Auburn is gonna have the **** scared out of them before pulling off another close one in the closing moments; Oregon stuggles early, then pounds Cal late; and the non-AQs go full-on Deliverance on their overmatched foes. We'll still have 4 unbeatens after next week.

[Guynemer]

Not ready to say that until the last of the historical BCS whores (Oklahoma) is out of the picture. Rooting hard for A&M to finish the job here.

The Big 12 is such a ****ing mess. I suppose we shouldn't entirely rule out the Sooners, or the Huskers for that matter, but neither team looks like it could compete with the Frogs or Broncos this season.

[Guynemer]

Aggies!

[Guynemer]

Assuming TCU & BSU win out, they should both get slots in BCS bowls (although, contractually speaking, I think only one would be guaranteed). That would leave two at-large slots for BCS squads. It seems likely that the Big Ten will claim one (Wisky/MSU/OSU or Iowa); Stanford could be battling it out with LSU for the other, unless there's a big upset in the SEC championship.

[Guynemer]

Sooners are dead! Huzzah!


Big 12 championship: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State?

[Guynemer]

Jesus, I have no idea how to rank these teams. I think Auburn has played the toughest schedule so far, but I also think they are clearly the least complete of the big four. Any of these teams could be #1, honestly. I don't want to puss out and just put them all tied at #1, but god damn...

I *think* there's a clump of four one-loss teams that have separated themselves from the pack thus far, but I'm more than willing to admit being wrong there. (Assuming Stanford continues to pound Arizona, of course.)

1. Oregon
2. TCU
3. Boise State
4. Auburn
........
5. Wisconsin
6. LSU
7. Stanford
8. Ohio State
........
9. Nebraska
10. Michigan State

I could easily be talked into any of the following in those last two slots: Alabama, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Iowa, Arizona. One could even push me into Utah or Virginia Tech with enough bribery and pharmaceuticals.

[reismark]

1. Boise State
2. Auburn
3. Oregon
4. TCU
5. Wisconsin (+2)
6. Stanford (+3)
7. Nebraska (+1)
8. LSU (*)
9. Michigan State (*)
10. Ohio State

Dropped: Alabama, Utah

Hated to have to take Utah off the board (and it would have saved me from the awkward action of returning Sparty to the board ahead of Ohio State - Sparty played this week, Ohio State didn't, and I still like Sparty better) but the Utes didn't even show up. I could have justified placing them to #10 and elevating Ohio State one spot (only because I won't drop a team on an off week) if they had put up a reasonable fight, but that was as one-sided a major matchup as I can recall all year.

[SlowwHand]

Assuming TCU & BSU win out, they should both get slots in BCS bowls (although, contractually speaking, I think only one would be guaranteed).

In other words, a royal screwing.

[Guynemer]

Well, they both got in last year, I'd hate to think the BCS would shut one of them out this year after setting the precedent.

[SlowwHand]

I don't know why reismark has Boise St. ranked over TCU. TCU's win today was more impressive than Boise, Oregon or even Auburn. The poll had Utah at 5. TCU thumped them. They beat the teams that are on the schedule.