Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

Just FYI and since it's a 14-team league...

#1 QB and #14 QB
Peyton Manning 341.35
Mike Vick (and his missed games) 237.15
Difference of 104.2 points or 30.5% less.

#1 RB and #14 RB and #28 RB
Arian Foster 229.70
Steven Jackson 137.40
Felix Jones 86.10
Difference of 92.3 points or 40.18%
Between #14 and #28 51.3 points or 37.3%

#1 WR and #14 WR and #28 WR
Roddy White 184.50
Miles Austin 128.10
Kenny Britt 98.90
Difference of 56.4 points or 30.5%
Between #14 and #28 29.2 points or 22.8%

Coincidentally, the the fall-off between the #1 and #14 QB and the #1 and #14 WR is identical at 30.5% but again, RB's have the biggest disparity.


HOWEVER, the top 5 at each position:
QB: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers [4 out of the top 5 were consensus top-10 players]
RB: Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis, Lesean McCoy, Frank Gore
WR: Roddy White, Terrell Owens, Hakeem Nicks, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe

As you can see, though the drop-off from RB's is significant, only 2 of the top-5 fantasy RB's were a consensus top-10 RB to start the season

Similarly, WR is a crapshoot with Calvin Johnson and (maybe) Roddy White, the only consensus top-10 WR's.

[Al B. Sure!]

How's that for draft strategy? You know the top RB to the 10th or 14th RB is a huge drop-off so you want to grab one of the top RB's if you can but once the playing starts you get a situation like now where 3 of the top-5 RB's were late round picks or not even drafted.

So drafting RB's early is a crapshoot.

[Al B. Sure!]

It's so funny to look back at the draft and see where people went and how they rank in real life.

Here we go. The order they were drafted and their current fantasy points ranking.

RB's: (All of these went in the 1st round)
1. Chris Johnson 6th
2. Maurice Jones-Drew 7th
3. Ray Rice 11th (NOT EVEN TOP 10)
4. Adrian Peterson 2nd
5. Michael Turner 16th (NOT EVEN TOP 15!)
6. Rashard Mendenhall 12th (NOT EVEN TOP 10)
7. Steven Jackson 14th (NOT EVEN TOP 10)
8. Ryan Matthews 41st (HOLY **** )

So of the 8 RB's that went in the first round, only 3 are currently in the top-10 among RB's and only 1 is in the top-5.

(Note, only Ryan Matthews missed time to injury; 7 of the top 8 have played all their games and all but one of that healthy top 7 have been outside of the top-5 )

[Al B. Sure!]

Since I have the list in front of me, I'm going to go through starting with the back-end of the draft and give props to the steals of the draft.

14.13 Guynemer - Dustin Keller - TE - NYJ #5 TE
13.10 joncha - Brandon Pettigrew - TE - DET #7 TE
12.03 Snoopy369 - Mike Williams- WR - TB #20 WR
11.10 joncha - Kyle Orton - QB - DEN #7 QB
10.13 Guynemer - Austin Collie - WR - IND #22 WR despite missing several games
09.03 Snoopy369 - Darren McFadden - RB - OAK #10 RB despite missing games
08.05 Jaguar - Arian Foster - RB - HOU #1 RB
(Some honorable mentions:
08.09 OzzyKP - LaDainian Tomlinson - RB - NYJ #8 RB
08.12 Imran - Jeremy Maclin - WR - PHI #11 WR)
07.13 Guynemer - Terrell Owens - WR - CIN #2 WR
(honorable mention: 07.04 Flash9286 - Ahmad Bradshaw - RB - NYG #15 RB)
06.09 OzzyKP - Hakeem Nicks - WR - NYG #3 WR

After that, you're talking first 5 rounds so you expect those guys to be good.

So to sum:
#1 RB was taken in the 8th round
#2 WR was taken in the 7th round; #3 WR in the 6th round

[Jaguar]

The assertion seems to be that the Youth Rights Knights, Mountain Goats, and Purple Drank are leading in scoring specifically because they were the first three teams to take QBs.

I can assure you this is not the case. I think this chart will answer anyone's questions.

NFL Leaders, Total TDs

13 Arian Foster   RB   Mountain Goats
11 Dwayne Bowe    WR   Mountain Goats
10 Calvin Johnson WR   Purple Drank
10 Peyton Hillis  RB   berz
 9 Hakeem Nicks   WR   Youth Rights Knights
 9 Antonio Gates  TE   Purple Drank
 9 Steve Johnson  WR   Purple Drank
 9 Greg Jennings  WR   Mountain Goats
 9 Chris Johnson  RB   Savage Hammers

Those three teams have seven of the top 9 TD scorers in the NFL. That's about 3-4 times their proper share. Ozzy has only one of the players here, but he also happens to have taken LaDainian Tomlinson (RB8, probably a high second-round value) well past the 100th pick. He also owns/owned Andre Johnson and Dallas Clark - both exceptional on a per-game basis.

Fantasy football is ultimately about getting a few spectacular players, not a bevy of OK ones. Those three teams have done that.

[Jaguar]

Oh, and obviously, if you extend the "early QB" strategy to include the next two taken (Romo, Schaub) those teams clearly got massively burned.

[Al B. Sure!]

Highest-drafted WR's and where they currently stand:

All were taken in the 2nd round except for Desean Jackson who was the first pick of the 3rd round:
1. Larry Fitzgerald 13th
2. Miles Austin 14th
3. Andre Johnson 12th
4. Calvin Johnson 4th
5. Randy Moss 52nd (HOLY ****)
6. Reggie Wayne 9th
7. Roddy White 1st
8. Desean Jackson 15th

Desean Jackson and Andre Johnson were the only ones to miss time at a game apiece so again, this group has been VERY healthy, as well.

Again, like with the RB's, of the top 8 WR's taken, only two are currently in the top 5 and only three are even in the top 10!


So, we have for the most part healthy RB's and WR's yet:

5 out of top 8 RB's are not in the top 10
5 out of top 8 receivers are not in the top 10

[Al B. Sure!]

Highest-drafted QB's and where they currently stand:

1st rounders:
1. Peyton Manning 1st
2. Aaron Rodgers 3rd
3. Drew Brees 2nd
4. Matt Schaub 16th
5. Tony Romo 23rd

2nd rounders:
6. Tom Brady 6th
7. Joe Flacco 10th
8. Philip Rivers 5th


Again, a very healthy group with only Romo out. The first 3 QB's drafted are also the top-3 QB's in fantasy.

6 of top 8 QB's ARE in the top 10. Much safer play.


*Sorry about the top-8 thing instead of top-10. I started using 8 since it was 8 RB's that were drafted in the first round.

[Al B. Sure!]

Oh, and obviously, if you extend the "early QB" strategy to include the next two taken (Romo, Schaub) those teams clearly got massively burned.

But as I've shown, early RB's and WR's are much more of a crapshoot than early QB's.

[-Jrabbit]

Looking back at the draft is always a hoot. You could not have bribed me to take Arrian Foster in the first round. To me, he looked for all the world like this year's Steve Slaton, especially since Houston had drafted another RB early.

A lot of the RB Fail is just normal and not drastic. Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and Rashard Mendenhall are legit starters, just not quite as studly as in the past. The only total failure in alby's list is Ryan Matthews, and it's arguable that anyone who drafts a rookie in the first round is playing with fire.

Replace Matthews with Frank Gore (consensus ranking says he clearly should be; I took him 9th overall in IDP), and you've got 100% compliance with a "deserves to start every week" metric. In fact, the worst of the bunch is ranked 14th, so they are all legit RB1 material in a 14-team league.

[Al B. Sure!]

Oops. I'm sorry I missed my pick of Frank Gore

Sorry it should be:

RB's: (All of these went in the 1st round)
1. Chris Johnson 6th
2. Maurice Jones-Drew 7th
3. Ray Rice 11th (NOT EVEN TOP 10)
4. Adrian Peterson 2nd
5. Frank Gore 5th
6. Michael Turner 16th (NOT EVEN TOP 15!)
7. Rashard Mendenhall 12th (NOT EVEN TOP 10)
8. Steven Jackson 14th (NOT EVEN TOP 10)
9. Ryan Matthews 41st (HOLY **** )
Second Round:
10. DeAngelo Williams 45th

Gore was the 5th RB taken and the 5th in rankings today.

DAMNIT NOW I GOT TO RE-DO EVERYTHING HOLD ON.

[flash9286]

Again, a very healthy group with only Romo out. The first 3 QB's drafted are also the top-3 QB's in fantasy.

6 of top 8 QB's ARE in the top 10. Much safer play.

Maybe that is why drafting a QB in the first/early second round seems to be the dominant strategy. Don't know, it is just an interesting trend in a very small sample size, that the players who drafted QBs earlier do better since I played in the league. Probably nothing though.

[EPW]

I drafted Eli and Orton in like the 10th round and I'm doing just fine.

[Jaguar]

Highest-drafted QB's and where they currently stand:

1st rounders:
1. Peyton Manning 1st
2. Aaron Rodgers 3rd
3. Drew Brees 2nd
4. Matt Schaub 16th
5. Tony Romo 23rd

2nd rounders:
6. Tom Brady 6th
7. Joe Flacco 10th
8. Philip Rivers 5th


Again, a very healthy group with only Romo out. The first 3 QB's drafted are also the top-3 QB's in fantasy.

6 of top 8 QB's ARE in the top 10. Much safer play.


*Sorry about the top-8 thing instead of top-10. I started using 8 since it was 8 RB's that were drafted in the first round.

Is "top ten" the actual metric that you want to use to describe whether a player is good? Imran isn't going to be pleased that Flacco is "top-ten." That's a below-average starter right there. Meanwhile, he also took Steven Jackson who (oh no!) is only 14th. That means Jackson is absolutely a player that starts every single week, and I wish I had him.

[Al B. Sure!]

Okay sorry. This is the complete list with the top-10 players drafted at the important positions and where they currently rank in fantasy:

RB's:
First Round:
1. Chris Johnson 6th
2. Maurice Jones-Drew 7th
3. Ray Rice 11th
4. Adrian Peterson 2nd
5. Frank Gore 5th
6. Michael Turner 16th
7. Rashard Mendenhall 12th
8. Steven Jackson 14th
9. Ryan Matthews 41st
Second Round:
10. DeAngelo Williams 45th

Only 2 of the top 5 taken are actually in the top 5.
Only 4 of the top 10 taken are actually in the top 10.
Only 2 have missed time due to injury.

Only 1 has outperformed his expectation with 1 more equaling expectation.

20% success rate with RB's


WR's:
Second Round:
1. Larry Fitzgerald 13th
2. Miles Austin 14th
3. Andre Johnson 12th
4. Calvin Johnson 4th
5. Randy Moss 52nd
6. Reggie Wayne 9th
7. Roddy White 1st
Third Round:
8. Desean Jackson 15th
9. Brandon Marshall 25th
10. Greg Jennings 8th

Only 1 of the top 5 taken is actually in the top 5.
Only 4 of the top 10 taken are actually in the top 10.
Only 2 missed time due to injury, though only a game apiece.

Only 2 have exceeded their expectations with 1 equaling his expectation.

30% success rate with WR's

QB's:
First Round:
1. Peyton Manning 1st
2. Aaron Rodgers 3rd
3. Drew Brees 2nd
4. Matt Schaub 16th
5. Tony Romo 23rd
Second Round:
6. Tom Brady 6th
7. Joe Flacco 10th
8. Philip Rivers 5th
9. Eli Manning 8th
Fourth Round:
10. Brett Favre 26th

Only 3 of the top 5 taken are in the top 5.
Only 7 of the top 10 taken are in the top 10.
Only 1 has missed time due to injury.

Only 3 have exceeded their expectations with 2 equaling expectations.

50% success rate with QB's.