Rugby - The Game They Play In Heaven II

[kittenOFchaos]

It also has to be said that I'm not doing well with my bets this RWC.

The worst was predicting correctly that Ireland would beat Australia, but going for Oz to win first half and Ireland to win second only for the 1st half to be drawn - that was a huge payout missed.

And today, it was all looking so good for Scotland to win by 3 points at 20-1 (hell yeah) only for it to all go wrong in the last 9 minutes or so

If my run continues I could see myself giving up betting on rugby. In some respects that'd be a good thing as I'd go back to just enjoying the game for the rugby alone.

[finbar]

Bizarre reffing of the scrums. First three scrum penalties:

1. Cross binds on the arm, Argie does down. Penalty to Scotland.
2. Cross binds on the arm, Argie goes down. Penalty to Argentina.
3. Cross binds on the arm, Argie goes down. Penalty to Scotland.

I mean, which part of binding on the arm being illegal doesn't Barnes understand? That aside, Scotland blew it. Garbage defence to let in the Argie try and then let back into the match by the Argie try scorer's moment of madness on the touch line. Isn't he the kid who plays for Leicester? Yes, the Doctor was offside charging down the drop goal attempt but they should never have needed the drop goal. And, for that matter, Parks shouldn't have attempted the DG off the wrong foot. Recycle and try again. Six points up with little left on the clock in those conditions needed sensible, disciplined play.

[Havak]

Not what Scotland are known for unfortunately. But it did remind me how bizarre Andy Robinson is in interview, claiming they controlled the game totally and would have won but for their opponents scoring a try. A Masters degree in stating the blindingly obvious?

Old firm meetings are always tasty but next weeks promises to be one of the best.

Amorosino left us in the close season Finbar, I think he is in France (perhaps LDiC can advise?).

[finbar]

I know the history, et al, but England should cope with Scotland regardless of the weather. They're even more limited in attack than England. Even this morning, before the weather turned foul, they were either running laterally or just taking the ball into tackles. After the weather turned foul, they did the same thing. Same old Scotland problem - they need a backs coach. If England's forwards turn up at the breakdowns - which is a very big if - giving Youngs decent ball, they should be more penetrative.

[kittenOFchaos]

Does anyone know how long the scrum-half can let the ball stay at the base of a ruck for?

Especially in the later stages of the game they seem to be allowed to move around their forwards and take seemingly minutes over recycling the ball.


I'd also really like seeing time frozen until scrums are actually completed. Too much of the game is the ponderous setting and resetting of scrums rather than actual play and the scope for time-wasting can spoil the final minutes of a game.

[finbar]

You'll hear the ref telling them to play the ball when they're hovering over it like that. Or, presumably, lose it. It would come under the deliberate time wasting rule. The timing is up to the ref's discretion, I suppose.

Couldn't agree more about the scrum resets. A couple of months ago I suggested stopping the clock as soon as the scrum goes down - or whatever problem emerges - then starting it again just prior to the "crouch, etc" call. Would save hours.

[LDiCesare]

Lièvremont did it again.
Parra as 10 once more. Médard as full back is good news, with Palisson coming in on the wing nice too. Lakafia is probably partly selected because Picamoles complained (like Traille) for being replaced at half-time against the AB.
Supposedly, this team should be mostly the same as the one for the QF, unless we get eliminated before, obviously.
I strongly doubt they'll manage to get the confidence and cohesion they didn't manage to get during the four last years.

[Havak]

They retain the capacity to surpise however. Certainly no side will take France lightly.

Finbar do you know if head to head if used before points difference in an RWC? I'm trying to work out what chance Scotland have - and head to head gives them a much better one. If it goes on points difference they need to stop England achieving a bonus point in the match, if it is head to head that might not matter.

Of course Scotland are plagued by an inability to score multiple tries (arguably ANY tries) - but it is the perfect tie for the exception that proves that rule?

[kittenOFchaos]

England should be concerned about the Scotland game - not so much in terms of going out of the RWC but ending up against New Zealand.

It'll be interesting to see if Scotland, with nothing to lose and everything to gain by going for tries make a concerted effort to achieve this goal.

I do really feel for the Scottish team as they were better than Argentina in so many areas of the game and through a momentary lapse and a referee blind to the possibility that Argentina were miles offside have ended up having to attempt the near impossible.

Hopefully Georgia can beat Argentina

[Havak]

Actually they can - I don't think they will but they are potentially capable of doing so. They are disciplined and strong, if very direct, which makes them a pretty good match for the Pumas.

As for England well to win the RWC someone has to beat NZ. If we get first crack at them so be it. We would be the underdogs to beat all underdogs in that fixture.

On paper England v Scotland is very predictable. Just like it was at Murrayfield in 2000 in fact. A fixture kOc will remember fondly no doubt.

*edit I see De Luca allowed the media to lead him by the nose down the Anglophobe route at Scotlands press conference. England exit "a bonus" apparently.

[kittenOFchaos]

Every game De Luca gets selected for is a bonus for the man. I've yet to see him perform in a Scotland shirt.

When he started it took a number of games before he caught the ball for the first time. He has improved that aspect of his game, but he doesn't break the line and has a tendency (very apparent against Argentina) of getting isolated and then clinging to the ball for dear life.

I believe that Andy Robinson is an excellent coach, but his failing has always been selection and use of substitutes be it in charge of Scotland or England. That said, all will be forgiven if he can get Scotland through

[Havak]

No it won't.

Youngs also got suckered into the "Scotland exit a bonus" trap by a TV interviewer. And a bizarre situation for England at an RWC once again - ball switching coaches. Given that we know RWCL will always have England under the microscope that was very silly of those involved?

I see the fruitloop has stirred the haka pot saying it has lost it's impact and relevance. Talk about lighting a blue touch paper? All I had noticed - for I generally try to avoid it - is that they are doing the silly throat slit version.

As for it being tradition well that is a little disingenuous in some ways given it has only been performed on home soil sich Buck Shelford decided it should be in the late eighties? Wasn't it only a touring tradition before then?

[finbar]

Finbar do you know if head to head if used before points difference in an RWC? I'm trying to work out what chance Scotland have - and head to head gives them a much better one. If it goes on points difference they need to stop England achieving a bonus point in the match, if it is head to head that might not matter.

Here are the various options. It's brain-deadening stuff:

England will win the group if they beat or draw with Scotland or lose but with two bonus points.

If England lose and there are no bonus points in the match, either side could qualify but it would depend on Argentina's result.

If Scotland win and there are no bonus points leaving England and Scotland both on 14 points and Argentina win with a bonus point, Argentina would win the group with 15 points and Scotland would finish second on their head-to-head result against England.

If Scotland win and there are no bonus points and Argentina win without a bonus point, all three teams would be on 14 points and positions would be decided on points difference. This would almost certainly eliminate Scotland while the top two positions would be dependent on the margins of victory/defeat in their remaining games.

If all three teams end up on 14 or 15 points, positions would be decided on overall points difference in the group, which would almost certainly eliminate Scotland. If Scotland lose but gain one or two bonus points, they could finish second, so long as Argentina also lose and gain fewer bonus points.

If Scotland win with a bonus point and England do not gain two bonus points in defeat they will win the group if Argentina fail to beat Georgia with a bonus point.

If Scotland and Argentina both win with a bonus point and England fail to gain a bonus point, Argentina would top the group ahead of Scotland.

If Argentina win with a bonus point and England lose and do not gain a bonus point, Argentina would top the group.

If Argentina win with or without a bonus point and Scotland fail to win, then Argentina would finish second.

If both games are draws, England would top the group ahead of Argentina.

Samo starting on the wing against Russia, two half-backs on the bench. Such is Wallabies' midfield and backline injury toll. Still, at least Pocock is back, and it will be very nice to see Higginbotham finally start a game.

[Havak]

Fearsome permutations. Hopefully the form book will tell and it will all be very straightforward - the Scots sent home 'tae think again' as the saying goes.

Am looking forward to seeing Pocock. And also to seeing Samo on the wing!

I'd like to have a word with Mark Cueto. Scoring a hat trick and then being dropped must sting a little and I'm not sure Armitage has done enough to warrant the place ahead of him. Lawes and Stevens returning is no huge surprise however though again those are hard calls on Palmer and Corbisiero (or Corbisieroto if you believe the BBC web page).

(and yes I did blag the info on the haka from the BBC - why do my own leg work when it has been done for me).

[finbar]

Even if Cueto feels as aggrieved as M'sieur Trinh-Duc, I doubt he will air it quite so publicly.