Rugby - The Game They Play In Heaven II

[kittenOFchaos]

Nick De Luca claiming in the Telegraph that he'll come back from injury a better player...perhaps he'll learn to catch. I was gratified to see someone else posted the same opinion in the comments.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/scotland/9806774/Scotland-and-Edinburgh-centre-Nick-De-Luca-says-he-will-come-back-a-better-player.html

A big weekend for Leicester and Leinster, it should make for some cracking rugby if the snow doesn't get in the way.

Predictions gentlemen, ideally with some explanations...I'll factor it in and buy you a pint when I'm rich

Friday, 18 January 2013
Biarritz v Harlequins, Pl3, 20:00
Connacht v Zebre, Pl3, 20:00

Saturday, 19 January 2013
Cardiff Blues v Sale, Pl6, 15:40
Castres v Ulster, Pl4, 13:35
Exeter v Leinster, Pl5, 18:00
Glasgow v Northampton, Pl4, 13:35
Montpellier v Toulon, Pl6, 15:40
Scarlets v Clermont Auvergne, Pl5, 18:00

Sunday, 20 January 2013
Leicester v Toulouse, Pl2, 15:00
Munster v Racing Metro 92, Pl1, 12:45
Saracens v Edinburgh, Pl1, 12:45
Treviso v Ospreys, Pl2, 15:00

[finbar]

Cripes, you want explanations as well? Will "I chucked a dart at the fixture list" suffice? Even trickier this week because some teams with no hope of progressing are going to be fielding less than first-choice teams.

But, for what it's worth:

Quins, even though Biarritz are always stronger at home. Quins have too much class.
Connacht, weren't disgraced last week despite the scoreline. Expect dire conditions in the West and they know how to play them.
Cardiff, only because they have home advantage.
Ulster, even away. I've seen Castres a few times and they can be lazy, relying purely on their forwards. Ulster have more all-round quality.
Leinster, tricky one this. Exeter can be strong at home but they don't seem to be playing as well as they were.
Saints, another tricky one. Saints keep being exposed as one-dimensional by better teams, the Weegees are strong in the forwards, Saints probably stronger, but I don't think the Weegees have the overall quality to expose them.
Montpellier, I tipped an upset because Montpellier are serious this year and have a lot to play for. Toulon, while scoring lots of tries, can be very lazy. I made the selection before I knew Montpellier's very popular joint coach died tragically young this week. I'm not sure what impact that will have.
Clermont, have to be the certainties of the round.
Leicester, because I haven't seen Toulouse play so consistently poorly for a long time.
Racing Metro, because they played a grand first half last week, Munster are struggling, and don't have the Sarries' qualities that beat Racing last week.
Sarries, because goodness knows what's going on at Embra.
Treviso, only on a hunch. Os will probably win comfortably.

On Monday morning I'll review the above and realise I'm an even bigger idiot than I thought.

[finbar]

Well, 2/2. Good effort by Quins apparently. A French rugby mate of mine says Biarritz are on the slippery slope to oblivion. Ageing players, conservative coaching, off-field problems.

I saw Connacht-Zebre. Typical Galway conditions. Connacht have some excellent young talent - O'Halloran at 14 and, particularly, Henshaw at 15, a teenager with loads of skills. A shame they will likely be poached by Leinster as their good lock Mike McCarthy already has been. It's tough being the poorest of the provinces. Problem is they lack cutting edge, having to fall back on Dan Parks to kick drop goals and penalties. Zebre have a modicum of talent - Treviso have the cream of the resident Italian players, meaning the bulk of the national team - and are always going to struggle until they unearth some decent players.

[kittenOFchaos]

Well, 2/2.

Indeed, but to make decent money you need to mess around with handicaps - for example you'd earn virtually nothing on predicting Connacht to win against Zebre as that was at 1/25 or some such nonsense. Only one of my accumulators survived Zebre coming that close...I have figured Connacht to win by at least 11 given home advantage and the conditions - well done to Zebre for almost getting the win.

[finbar]

Great Montpellier win under all the circumstances. Toulon were poor, as they sometimes can be despite the zillion dollar budget, but Montpellier gave them few chances. What were the odds on a Montpellier win?

EDIT. And Saints thoroughly deserved their loss to Glasgow. They had a ton of possession and territory, particularly in the first half, and never looked like scoring. Sooner or later Mallinder has to realise that there's more to rugby than boshing it up. It's taking him a mighty long time. Like a couple of years now.

[kittenOFchaos]

Great Montpellier win under all the circumstances. Toulon were poor, as they sometimes can be despite the zillion dollar budget, but Montpellier gave them few chances. What were the odds on a Montpellier win?

The bookies had it about 50:50.

I had Toulon as +7 and so lost my final accumulator. Jonny Wilkinson was dreadful...in fact, I thought he was dreadful against Sale in Salford though no-one else did...I don't believe he shouldn't be part of the Lions set-up when there are players such as Farrell, Flood, Burns and Sexton available to selectors. Also of note was Delon Armitage needlessly getting himself yellow-carded - that man is such a dick.

In France it is surprising just how important home advantage is and I find it hard to fully appreciate that.

Also I am so envious of Montpellier's Stadium - beautiful.

[finbar]

Treviso deserved their win against the Os. Good lads.

Tigers got out of jail thanks to ridiculously dire Toulouse goal kicking. Still, Tigers fought hard, as ever. Toulouse need to have a good rethink.

[kittenOFchaos]

So, you were 10/12 Finbar...not bad, not good enough, but far better than I did with my accumulators

Tigers should have lost today but Toulouse failed to take their points and the TMO wasn't their friend. Watching the game I never sensed that Toulouse were really in it despite the opportunities and the close score line, it just felt right from the start like it was going to be Leicester's day.

Treviso are starting to become a force at home...bravo!

[finbar]

Tigers - Toulouse was a strange old game in terms of who deserved to win. On balance, Toulouse did. Tigers' discipline opened the door to the penalties that were missed. Toulouse actually played a lot more rugby than Tigers, some of it excellent in the conditions, but it was high-risk stuff in the conditions and more often than not coughed up possession. So Tigers' less adventurous game suited the conditions better. Yesterday aside, though, Toulouse need to reassess where they are, what they're doing, and their playing personnel.

Treviso's HC campaign looks poor in terms of simple win-loss but they were leading at some point in most of their games. And, to be honest, they should be more than competitive because they field the cream of the locally-based Italian national team.

[kittenOFchaos]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/news/9822471/Six-Nations-draw-up-plan-to-introduce-bonus-point-system.html

The article is about French opposition to introducing the bonus point system to the 6 Nations. I only quote it to highlight the stupidity of men such as Rob Howley "“In terms of putting bums on seats and the attacking style of play, why not?” Howley said. “You look at all the other competitions that operate with a bonus point – such as the RaboDirect and the Premiership." The 6 Nations gets to charge a fortune per seat and is pretty much sold out each game. The RaboDirect and Premiership have appalling attendances in many grounds week in, week out.

LV Cup rubbish this weekend...what a let-down.

[finbar]

Yes, Howley is a dill of epic proportions. The 6N doesn't need bonus points.

Our decade-old 38" plasma TV died on Tuesday night. Made the trip from Australia with us and served us well. So yesterday morning we went out to replace it. My how the prices have come down over the years. We paid $5000 for ours a decade ago. Our debate yesterday morning was mainly over the size of the screen. I saw a 44" LG LCD for €470. Herself said it was too big, it was the sort of thing rugby fans watch. Guess which one we got?

[Havak]

The one rugby fans watch?

I’ve been distracted by work, apologies. I’ll try not to let it happen again.

I picked up a cheap 39” TV for upstairs last November for £229 – LCD with a conventional backlight but fine as a bedroom TV (and crucially copes with FullHD rugger).

Winning the group was a good effort – but that away QF will be too much.

And interesting situation with George Ford – apparently he went to Cockers asking to play every week and that is not the Tigers way. You fight for your spot. Ford’s old man is a coach at Bath and George is off there even though his youth contract means Bath are not allowed to have even talked to him yet.

Still it no surprise our old enemy are not playing cricket here. Anything to get one over on Tigers.

And yet again Tigers develop a player from 15 only to lose them when their youth status expires. Too many sharks in the Aviva who lack their own academies.

Do you remember what Sale were like under Mallinder Finbar? All bosh and no brain – patterns do repeat it seems? Saints just seem...a bit clueless at times?

[Havak]

Why has this forum turned my reference to Aviva above into a hyperlink? Hmmm?

[finbar]

I see no hyperlink. Did you change something?

I don't remember Sale under Mallinder but it sounds awfully familiar. Saints are becoming- if they haven't already - an indictment of his coaching skills.

I'm sure losing Ford hurts every Tiger fan but, I have to say, I think it's going to help his rugby in the longer term. Flood is only 27. Barring an horrendous injury to him, Ford is going to warm the bench much more than he plays and for a long time. His game isn't going to develop. I could cite Rory Clegg's experience at Quins (while acknowledging that Ford is much more talented).

Was there every any doubt that a TV that maximised the rugby-watching experience would win the day?

[kittenOFchaos]

Wayne Barnes...giving joy to the World...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=h8yKQo9YxEg

In other news, the LV Cup is so worthless that Sale Vs Scarlets gets the Sky Sports 1 treatment - yup, that is the best contest of the weekend