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2010 World Cup Prediction Competition

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  • Okay, long and somewhat confusing post but bear with me especially if you're in the top 10.

    No one got a top score today so no real winner and other than azzaman dropping a few spots no changes in the top of the overall rankings.

    For the overall win of this prediction competition it's almost certain that chegel will win if the Netherlands win the World Cup, as he was one of the few who predicted that at the start -- that would net him 10 points on top of the 6-point lead he already has. Only North King could theoretically beat that if Villa becomes(/stays) top scorer AND he predicts a tie after 90 minutes and gets an exact score on it (pretty slim odds as it is, and on top of it he's predicting 1-2 win for Spain right now).

    If Spain wins the Cup instead it'll be a race between North King, azzaman and Arwon who all predicted Spain as champions and Villa as top scorer so they will earn either 13 or 20 points for those predictions alone -- the match result will determine which one of them will win.

    Imran and Dauphin could still win as well but they'd have to change their current predictions as they have the exact same one as North King who's already above them in the current ranking. For Imran, basically any prediction other than 1-2 still gives him a chance to win. Dauphin will have to predict a tie other than 1-1 and get an exact score on it to outscore everyone above him (and avoid matching Imran's result if he changes his to a tie). Even chegel still has a chance here if he changes his prediction to a tie or win for Spain and gets an exact score for it -- providing Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow.

    Furthermore, SuperBeaverInc may also need to consider changing his match prediction. He predicted Spain as the champions but not Villa as top scorer so he'll only be able to earn 10 points there, in which case with his current 1-2 match prediction North King will almost certainly pass him (barring a miracle like Robben scoring 4 times and Sneijder at least once with no goals for Villa). An exact score with anything other than 1-2 will win SuperBeaverInc the prediction competition if Spain wins the Cup but Sneijder outscores Villa.

    Warpus, I now see why asked about the top scorer earlier. To win this competition, you need Spain to raise the Cup, have no one earn ANY points from David Villa AND predict a tie for tomorrow yourself that ends up being an exact score. Unless of course SuperBeaverInc changes his prediction to a tie, in which case you need to predict a win for Spain that doesn't match North King's prediction (1-2) and get an exact score on that -- in which case you and North King would share the win. That's pretty tough, not to mention confusing (so I hope I got my math straight)...

    You know what, if it ends up being the difference between chegel, warpus or SuperBeaverInc (or anyone I might've overlooked) winning this competition or not, I would like to interpret the rules in their literal sense and use Fifa's tie-breaker rules for the top scorer ranking -- fair is fair, that's what the rules currently state and it maximises the number of potential winners. If anyone else will win regardless though, I'd still like to be lenient as has been done in the past and try to give out as many points as possible, which means a lot more people earn more points overall but warpus and SuperBeaverInc (and possibly chegel and some folks outside of the top 10) likely end up dropping a few places in the ranking at their expense. (In this case SuperBeaverInc doesn't need to change his prediction, but warpus might want consider changing his to a tie if he wants a chance at winning this.) Does anyone object to that?

    For the benefit of those that don't read the CFC thread, warpus's question to me and my response:

    Originally posted by warpus
    Uruguay vs Germany 0:1

    Hey Locutus, what happens if two or more players tie for the golden boot?
    Going strictly by the definition of the rules we go by Fifa's official rankings, which breaks ties by assists and minutes played, but in the past we've always been pretty lenient about it and basically tried to award as many points as possible. Unless there are major objections, I'd say that if the current ranking doesn't change after tomorrow's game, anyone who predicted David Villa should get the full 10 points, even though technically Villa ranks only second after Müller (who got 2 more assists) and Sneijder could still pass him based on minutes played (the difference is only 3 minutes ATM).

    Of course, if Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow the latter is only worth 3 points. But barring a miracle (Robben scoring 4 goals? :dubious:) the 9 or 10 folks who predicted Villa as top scorer will get at least 3 points for their prediction...
    Unless I screwed up my math no one else can win anymore, but with 40 participants even a mid-table position is not unimpressive and everyone at the bottom of the table missed a lot of games so they need not be ashamed either. And with at least 12 points still on the table (more for those who predicted Spain or the Netherlands to win the Cup and/or Villa to become top scorer), there's still plenty of room to move up the ranks.

    Note that while Robert can't win the overall competition anymore, he still has a shot of becoming the best Apolytoner if the Netherlands end up lifting the Cup tomorrow -- although right now he'll have to share the honour with Imran if it takes more than 90 minutes to accomplish that (if either Imran or Dauphin change their predictions to a tie though Robert will need a win within regulation).


    Ranking after day 24 (Google doc):

    Code:
     1. chegel    		162 (+6)
     2. warpus    		156 (+6)
     3. SuperBeaverInc.    	153 (+6)
     4. North King    	152 (+6)
     5. Imran Siddiqui     	149 (+6)
     6. azzaman333    	147
     6. RobWorham   	147 (+6)
     8. Loppan Torkel    	145 (+6)
     9. Arwon    		144 (+6)
     9. Dauphin     	144 (+6)
    11. Solver   		139 (+6)
    11. Robert Plomp     	139 (+6)
    13. siron     		137 (+6)
    14. Locutus   		136 (+6)
    15. C0ckney     	134 (+6)
    15. Darth_Pugwash    	134 (+6)
    17. Kitschum     	129 (+6)
    18. joncha     		127 (+6)
    19. BirraImperial    	124
    19. Wernazuma III     	124
    19. Bantams   		124 (+6)
    22. Echse    		123 (+6)
    22. OneFootInTheGrave	123
    22. Serb     		123 (+6)
    25. Weik    		122
    25. MikeH     		122 (+6)
    27. Red Door    	119 (+6)
    28. Maquiladora   	116
    28. sonorakitch    	116
    30. Victor Galis     	114 (+6)
    31. classical_hero    	113 (+6)
    32. Zoid   		110
    33. OzzyKP     		 82 (+6)
    34. Dudemeister    	 58
    35. Proviisori   	 52
    36. Infantry#14    	 45
    37. Rashiminos    	 32
    38. El_Cid   		 31 (+6)
    39. Dragonlord    	  5
    40. Barnabas     	  0
    Attached Files
    Administrator of WePlayCiv -- Civ5 Info Centre | Forum | Gallery

    Comment


    • Based on that post

      11 July
      0 Netherlands v. Spain 1
      “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
      - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

      Comment


      • I'll change to 2:2 for the crap shoot, but I don't believe that will be the score.
        One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

        Comment


        • The Apolyton Win is the only thing that matters anyway

          I'm 23 points behind chegel, that sucks, because I could get only 22 points more then him next round

          I'm going for that anyway.
          If Holland wins the World Cup I get + 10
          If Van Persie scores 5 goals I get + 10 as well
          If I get an exact score I'll get + 12

          Thus I need to change my prediction into a 5-0 for Holland, hoping that Van Persie will make all goals.

          There I go:
          The Netherlands - Spain: 5-0

          Go Van Persie!
          Grab yourself together for this most imporant match for you in all time!!!!
          Formerly known as "CyberShy"
          Carpe Diem tamen Memento Mori

          Comment


          • Sorry, if the Netherlands wins the Cup chegel gets 10 points as well -- you're not the only one who saw that one coming You'd have a bridge of 33 points to cross, which sadly can't be done...
            Administrator of WePlayCiv -- Civ5 Info Centre | Forum | Gallery

            Comment


            • Bugger. Should have gone 0-0.
              One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

              Comment


              • Indeed... though I think you may have won the Apolyton competition, thereby preventing the ignominy of having a Yank best you all (though I was close )
                “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

                Comment


                • Paul the Octopus should have been the winner of this competition.
                  Cook the bastard!
                  Nu chto, podbrosish druga svoego zaklyatogo na svoem gorbu k vorotam raya zvezndo-polosatogo?
                  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_na1JMpeF8

                  Comment


                  • Azzaman and Dauphin won the day yesterday with 19 points each, but warpus with his exact score managed to stay just ahead of azzaman and wins the overall competition with a 2-point lead. Congratulations, warpus!

                    North King and chegel both came in third just 1 point behind azzaman and Dauphin and SuperBeaverInc share 5th place another 2 points behind that with Imran rounding out the top 7 just 6 points behind warpus. This was probably the closest finish we've ever had, congrats to all!

                    Overall final ranking (Google doc):

                    Code:
                     1. warpus    		168 (+12)
                     2. azzaman333    	166 (+19)
                     3. North King    	165 (+13)
                     3. chegel    		165 (+3)
                     5. Dauphin     	163 (+19)
                     5. SuperBeaverInc.    	163 (+10)
                     7. Imran Siddiqui     	162 (+13)
                     8. Arwon    		157 (+13)
                     9. siron     		150 (+13)
                    10. Solver   		149 (+10)
                    11. RobWorham   	147
                    12. Loppan Torkel    	145
                    13. Locutus   		142 (+6)
                    13. Robert Plomp     	142 (+3)
                    15. MikeH     		138 (+16)
                    16. C0ckney     	134
                    16. Darth_Pugwash    	134
                    16. Wernazuma III     	134 (+10)
                    19. Echse    		133 (+10)
                    20. Kitschum     	132 (+3)
                    21. joncha     		127
                    22. sonorakitch    	126 (+10)
                    23. Weik    		125 (+3)
                    23. Red Door    	125 (+6)
                    25. BirraImperial    	124
                    25. Bantams   		124
                    27. OneFootInTheGrave	123
                    27. Serb     		123
                    29. Maquiladora   	116
                    30. Victor Galis     	114
                    31. Zoid   		113 (+3)
                    31. classical_hero    	113
                    33. OzzyKP     		 92 (+10)
                    34. Dudemeister    	 71 (+13)
                    35. Proviisori   	 62 (+10)
                    36. Infantry#14    	 45
                    37. Rashiminos    	 32
                    38. El_Cid   		 31
                    39. Dragonlord    	  5
                    40. Barnabas     	  0
                    ACS final ranking:
                    Code:
                     1. Dauphin     	163
                     2. Imran Siddiqui     	162
                     3. siron     		150
                     4. Robert Plomp     	142
                     5. MikeH     		138
                     6. C0ckney     	134
                     6. Wernazuma III     	134
                     8. Kitschum     	132
                     9. joncha     		127
                    10. OneFootInTheGrave	123
                    11. Serb     		123
                    12. Victor Galis     	114
                    13. OzzyKP     		 92
                    14. Barnabas     	  0
                    Comparing the different sites, CFC had 6 of the top 10 players but also 5 of the bottom 10 (of course, most of those were just late joiners). WPC players did really well early on with at one point all but one of the active players (i.e. not counting provisorii and El_Cid) in the top 15, but Maquiladora and Zoid started to slide downwards in the knock-out stage and as a result lost interest and quit playing, sending them to the bottom end of the ranking in the final standing. For the longest time almost all Apolytoners hovered around the middle of the pack but in the end 3 of them still mananaged to claw their way into the top 10. It's a shame Ozzy missed the first round of matches and the group predictions as percentage-wise he's pretty close to top 10 material as well.

                    Average total score by site:
                    ACS: 124
                    CFC: 120
                    WPC: 111

                    WPC had the lowest average total score as they simply had 2 guys not posting any match predictions (or not until very late anyway), which is a quarter of their total players. ACS had the highest average total score because they had fewer late entrants than CFC: discounting Barnabas and Dragonlord, only OzzyKP missed a significant number of matches and even then he only missed 10 (and had the good fortune that Spain was in group H allowing him to still tip them as champions) while CivFanatics had 3 players miss out on 20-30 matches each, which really dragged down their average. So this whole statistic unfortunately isn't very meaningful (as I noted at the start when Robert asked me to track it).

                    Average score per match prediction:
                    WPC: 2.15
                    ACS: 2.11
                    CFC: 2.10

                    Average points per match prediction is a better statistic for cross-site comparison, although still not perfect as I had no way of including group winner, top scorer and world champion predictions in the denominator (at least not without major rewriting of the Google doc), so it still skews somewhat in favour of Apolyton who had the lowest percentage of missed predictions here. Because of this issue I'd say the difference between ACS and CFC is statistically negligible. Note that I manually discounted proviisori from WPC's score as he was REALLY padding it with 52 points from 0 match predictions, but even then WPC did better than the other two sites. To be fair, with a much smaller number of players it's easier to do either really well or really poorly, had we had a few more participants the scores no doubt would've been closer.

                    Thanks to everyone for playing, it was fun!
                    Attached Files
                    Administrator of WePlayCiv -- Civ5 Info Centre | Forum | Gallery

                    Comment


                    • Thanks Locutus I enjoyed it even though I didn't do well.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Locutus View Post
                        Sorry, if the Netherlands wins the Cup chegel gets 10 points as well -- you're not the only one who saw that one coming You'd have a bridge of 33 points to cross, which sadly can't be done...
                        I got that, that's why I said that I could only get 22 points more then him, instead of 32 But in the end I got nothing

                        Thanks a lot for the organisation! It was spotless again!
                        I enjoyed it a lot!

                        Congrats to Warpus!
                        And to Dauphin of course!!
                        Formerly known as "CyberShy"
                        Carpe Diem tamen Memento Mori

                        Comment


                        • I won?

                          After 10 years of being a close runner I finally top the Apolyton listing.
                          One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

                          Comment


                          • Hooray Poly

                            And thanks Locutus.
                            “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                            - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

                            Comment

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