MLB 2011!!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Cabera at 3rd kind of sounds funny. I know he has played there in the past... but lets just say his defense suffered pretty big (he is -10 in Defensive Runs Saved per year over his career at 3rd).

And 9 years for Fielder? My Lord. Was anyone really bidding against the Tigers?

[rah]

Yes, who was bidding. We haven't heard many rumors lately.

[OzzyKP]

He'll be a good DH some day. Which is what gives the AL the advantage for him.

I think Miggy would do... alright at 3rd. Obviously he wouldn't be the best defensive player there but the offensive upgrade (over Inge! haha!) would be huge. Another thought is possibly putting him in RF.

[SlowwHand]

The Rangers were considering putting an offer to Fielder, but that's off now, I guess.

[OzzyKP]

The Rangers were considering putting an offer to Fielder, but that's off now, I guess.

Yea, I guess that's a safe bet.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Rangers were considering putting an offer to Fielder, but that's off now, I guess.

I'm not sure they would have offered nearly as much. Or as many years.

[OzzyKP]

****, this just totally made my day. Wow, what a move. Dombrowski.

[Demonbinder]

And 9 years for Fielder? My Lord. Was anyone really bidding against the Tigers?

Well, his agent always makes teams think there is at least one other bidder.

[Imran Siddiqui]

****, this just totally made my day. Wow, what a move. Dombrowski.

I want to revisit this in 6 years

[OzzyKP]

After we have two or so World Series championships under our belt? Sure thing.

If we don't...

Either way, the next 6 years or so are gonna be a wild ride!

[Imran Siddiqui]

That's a big if. It isn't like you play in the NL with that roster, after all.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/detroit-goes-for-it-signs-prince-fielder/

Fielder is set to receive $214 million over the next nine years, or just under $24 million per season. Essentially, he got the same deal as Albert Pujols, just minus one year in length. This deal ranks behind only that deal and the two Alex Rodriguez contracts as the largest investment in the history of the sport, so Fielder has essentially been paid at a level that puts him in the same company as two inner-circle Hall of Famers. No pressure or anything.

With all that said, the long term costs of putting Fielder on this roster were extremely high. No matter how much you might like Prince Fielder’s bat, there’s no getting around the reality that he’s going to be extremely overpaid during the second half of this contract, and this deal could turn into an albatross very quickly. As we noted a few months ago, the historical aging curve for heavy players shows significant drop-off at earlier ages than most players, as it’s hard for a player carrying that much mass to maintain health and flexibility as their body starts to wear down. Fielder will have to be a big time outlier if he’s going to remain a productive player into his mid-30s, and even if you’re aggressive in your estimations of future salary inflation, a $214 million contract is going to pay him at premier player rates at ages when he’ll probably be more of a part-time role player. The question isn’t if Fielder will become a hinderance to the Tigers ability to compete, but simply a matter of when.

At this price, the Tigers are paying for something in the realm of 35 wins over the next nine years. If you believe that Fielder is a true talent +5 win player and apply the standard player aging curve which knocks off half a win per year, he’d be expected to produce +27 wins over that timeframe, a performance worth about $156 million at today’s prices. As you can see, the gap is so large that there’s almost no chance that Fielder is actually worth $214 million over the next nine years. The Tigers have basically borrowed from their future to pay for the present, and this deal is going to harm their ability to contend down the line. If Fielder ages well, he may not begin to be a real liability for three or four years. That’s the window the Tigers have essentially given themselves with this contract – win a title before 2015 before the cost of this deal becomes prohibitive to building a contending team around that contract.

Fielder will absolutely help the Tigers. He might even be enough to help them get to the World Series and perhaps take home a trophy. But, in reality, if the team had $214 million to spend this winter, they should have been in on Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson, who won’t make as much between them as what the team just guaranteed Fielder. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers definitely needed to make an impact move, but because they got stuck in a position where there was only one impact bat left on the market, they found themselves having to vastly overpay in order to get that improvement.

For Detroit’s sake, I hope they win a title in the next three years, because the franchise’s ability to compete long term just took a serious hit. Borrowing from the future to win in the present isn’t always a bad idea, but at these prices, the Tigers should have explored other options. The cost was simply too high.

Basically, a good pickup, but WTH with that ridiculous contract?

[OzzyKP]

I don't disagree with that analysis. And yes, Reyes + Wilson might have been better. And yes, I can see it potentially becoming a burden some time in the future.

BUT! For right now! Wow!!!! Fantastic!! Let's get those rings while we can!

[Imran Siddiqui]

A commentator on that article:

In several years, the salaries (which might as well be pensions) of the Big Three will crush Detroit’s ability to compete with emerging markets.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I don't disagree with that analysis. And yes, Reyes + Wilson might have been better. And yes, I can see it potentially becoming a burden some time in the future.

BUT! For right now! Wow!!!! Fantastic!! Let's get those rings while we can!

Oh, admit it, if ANY other team had signed Fielder to this contract you would have slammed them .

[OzzyKP]

A commentator on that article:

Our new toys might not have the mileage of that hot, new model the Rangers bought from Japan, but bigger is better.