MLB - 2009 Regular Season Thread!!

[Supr49er]

Dodgers offered 2 years at $22 mil per, IIRC.

Is their offer still on the table?

[Imran Siddiqui]

We have no idea what's been offered. We know the Dodgers are the only team that has really pledged themselves into the race and the Giants, Mets, Yankees, etc, have been mentioned as potential competitors.

[Ming]

Oh, also, Jeff Kent is retiring today:
And it looks like his next stop with be in the Hall of Fame. Probably the greatest hitting 2B since Joe Morgan hung 'em up.

True on the hitting side... but not even close defensively. He was an average defensive 2b at best.
But since hitting is all that seems to matter... The talking heads at ESPN predict a first ballot entry.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Average defense, great hitting (especially for a 2B, one of the better hitting 2Bs of all time) usually makes you worthy of the Hall .

[Supr49er]

I was very surprised to compare Kent and Sandberg's Offensive stats:

-Games--AB----HITS--AVG--RUNS--SB---HR---
K-2298--8498--2461--.290--1320---94--377--
S-2164--8385--2386--.285--1318--344--282--

Of course, there is NO comparison defensively or with the intangibles.

[Imran Siddiqui]

One must also compare them against their eras.

OPS+
K: 123
S: 114

Additional batting stats:

Runs Created per Game
K: 6.2
S: 5.7

Adjusted Batting Runs (which is also weighed for league and park factors)
K: 289.4
S: 150.5

As for defensively, how about using some range factor (per game and per 9 innings) and fielding percentage against the league rates?

Kent:
FP%: .980
lgFP%: .982
RFg: 4.71
lgRFg: 4.33
RF/9: 5.06
lgRF/9: 5.03

Sandberg:
FP%: .989
lgFP%: .981
RFg: 5.10
lgRFg: 4.47
RF/9: 5.31
lgRF/9: 5.21

Both won 1 MVP award (1984 for Sandburg and 2000 for Kent.

Basically, Kent is better than Sandburg hitting (9% better than the average player and half a run created per game better than Ryno), Sandburg is better on the base paths, and Sandburg is better than Kent defensively (but not as much as most would think). So, they are a wash, IMO, and I don't see why Kent should be denied on the first ballot.

[Supr49er]

By the numbers he should be a shoo-in.
But he was taciturn (even surly) with the writers who vote, so you never know for sure.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Based on what's being said about him today in the press, I think he'll get in.

Oh, and of course, we must (and the writers will) remember that he was mostly surely because of having to deal with Barry Bonds, which the writers can understand .

[Supr49er]

I wonder what lid he'll choose? I hope it's the Giants.

[-Jrabbit]

I love it when Imran's Saberposts agree with my perception.

I see no reason for Kent to be denied. His defense was very steady, especially for a guy who was not fleet of foot, his hitting was clearly HOF level at 2B, and you can't penalize a guy for not stealing bases - even if he is a middle infielder.

But the BBWA is just plain taciturn on some of this stuff, so first ballot is not guaranteed by any means. IIRC and off the top of my head, the HOF is a bit short at the 2B position. Hope he makes it.

[snoopy369]

I think Kent should get in. I don't think he should be first ballot; that should be only people who excel in both sides of the game, or are so exceptional in one side that it outweighs the other - but I'm talking Willie Mays level performance there, and most of the time if you're that good you work hard enough to be good in both sides (ie, Mays).

I'd give him 2nd ballot, myself. I think if you are going to look at someone for hitting alone, and not for position play, you cannot call him 'a 2b'. You should call him 'a hitter' and evaluate him against other hitters; how does he evaluate then, compared to Gwynn, etc.? Probably well enough to qualify for the hall, but not so exceptional as compared to 2B.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I wonder what lid he'll choose? I hope it's the Giants.

I believe, ever since the Boggs Tampa fiasco, the Hall of Fame chooses. They'd undoubtedly pick the Giants. Kent probably would too.

I think if you are going to look at someone for hitting alone, and not for position play, you cannot call him 'a 2b'. You should call him 'a hitter' and evaluate him against other hitters; how does he evaluate then, compared to Gwynn, etc.? Probably well enough to qualify for the hall, but not so exceptional as compared to 2B.

That's a bit silly. One reason being that an average 2B defensively is far more valuable than an average LF defensively. That plays into the value. Now, granted, I don't have Win Shares, or other career statistics that factor in defensive play, close at hand currently to evaluate how much he's worth as an average defender at 2B and very good hitter (making him one of the best hitting 2B of all time), but I think most people understand that it is more difficult to play 2B average than it is to play many other positions average. And that should factor into it.

Being the best at your position is something and you can't divorce the player from his position.

[snoopy369]

What I'm saying is, take Andre Dawson. His hitting as a 2B would be pretty great, right? I'm at work, so I can't do this right now, but I'd guess better than Kent's overall?

Okay, so let's say he plays 2B. He'd be a rather poor 2B I'd guess, right (who knows, really, but it's not a bad guess)? But he'd still be an amazing 2B as a hitter... so would he be a first ballot HOFer?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Andre Dawson? The guy with a 119 OPS+. That's worse than Kent, actually . His 5.4 Runs Created per game is worse than both Kent and Sandberg. And his batting runs of 216.4 is worst than Kent's.

He'd likely be so horrid that he wouldn't be a 2B. He definitely wouldn't be an average 2B (Hell, he wasn't even an average LF the few times he played there). And if he was a horrid 2B, that should (and would) be a mark against him. Horrible defense players usually have to be amazing offensive players to beat the bad defense, like Manny Ramirez. Though I'm not sure how being the worst 2B would compare to being an average RF (which like ain't getting him into the Hall anyway).

[Arrian]

Dawson...

Started as a CF, ended as a RF. Hit for power, stole a few hundred bases at a pretty good rate (74%). Racked up 2700+ hits, so he stuck around a while. Bad OBP (hence the 119 OPS+, rather than something higher). Dunno about his defense. Assume it was good, at least at first.

So there is 1 (pretty glaring) hole in his case. He probably will get in. I don't have time to do a side-by-side comparison, but I bet he's got a better case than Rice, at least.

Kent's case is better.

-Arrian