MLB - 2009 Regular Season Thread!!

[snoopy369]

I'm not sure I care so much about k/bb in the japanese leagues, as while they have some quality players overall they're still not MLB level, and i'm sure there are plenty of poor hitters to K with relatively poor pitches. Against MLB-quality players (in Korea), he fooled 3 and didn't fool 2, in the 9th anyway, which is not so good.

He obviously needs to become comfortable with people hitting his pitches, and stop trying to dance around people. I know that comes with age, to some extent, but sometimes it doesn't... ie Ryan ... though I didn't realize he had THAT many walks. I do recall he had enough walks in his no hitters that sometimes people came up 5 times, I think... ie, 8-9 walks (plus the occasional error)... he never pitched a perfect game, did he?

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'm not sure I care so much about k/bb in the japanese leagues, as while they have some quality players overall they're still not MLB level

How do you think Daisuke Matsuzaka was evaulated before he jumped to the MLB? It wasn't like without the last WBC, he would still be in Japan. Also, as statistical evaluation has demonstrated that the Japanese professional leagues are somewhat midway between AAA and the Majors, so having a 22 year old with ERA+ of 197 and 207 in the last two years would be considered an absolutely prize prospect.

Hell, a 22 year old pitcher with an ERA+ of 197 and 207 in AAA for the past two seasons likely would be rated #1 on everyone's list.

[snoopy369]

Oh, I think he'll be a good pitcher, don't get me wrong. I just think he needs to work out this whole 'I don't need to strike everyone out' thing or that ERA+ is going to drop like a rock once people figure him out (it's not like his opposition in japan has had all that much time to figure him out either).

[Imran Siddiqui]

3.5 full seasons (652 innings in 4 seasons) should be enough . And it's a bit silly to be extrapolating this from ONE 2 inning apperance in a championship game. Since he did have over 200 Ks in his last two seasons, with 26 and 25 starts respectively (Japan's league has a slightly shorter season).

So in 2008, he had 9.35 K/9 and in 2007, 9.12 K/9. Putting that perspective, last season A.J. Burnett led the American League with 9.39 K/9 and in the NL, only Tim Lincecum(10.51 K/9) and Edinson Volquez (9.46 K/9) had a higher K/9 rate than 9.35.

Darvish's BB/9 in 2008 was 2.38 (in 2007 it was 2.12). That's not league leading or anything, but was better than, say, Lincecum (3.33 BB/9 in 2008), Volquez (4.27 BB/9), Jake Peavy (3.05 BB/9), Johan Santana (2.42 BB/9), Burnett (3.49 BB/9), etc.

Not saying he'd be a super All-Star automatically (though he might), these numbers for, say, a AAA player would be drooled over. He doesn't have the K/9 of, say, Lincecum or Volquez in their last year in AAA (Lincecum's was like 13, which was crazy), but his BB/9 is far better. And you'd have to say that Nippon Professional Baseball has a bit better talent than AAA. Then again, the numbers from Lincecum and Volquez come from when they were both 23 and Yu has a year to get to that age.

[Arrian]

From what I've read, predicting the performance of a Japanese pitcher in MLB has gotten better. There were warning signs all over Kei Igawa, though in fairness, the Yankees said over and over they saw him as a #4 - #5 starter. They were wrong, he's a #6 starter.

If the criticism of Darvish is that he's a little bat shy... well, it seems he has a similar mentality to Matsuzaka, then. Very good stuff, won't give in. Result: lots of Ks, lots of BB. Not many hits, so long as the stuff holds up.

Daisuke has been pretty good in the majors (but damn, that BB rate has GOT to catch up with him eventually, doesn't it? [/hopes the Yankees fan]).

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'd imagine that Darvish would get more K's. Simply because he's 6'5'' and throws 95-98 mph (IIRC, Daisuke hits low 90s). And apparently Yu's control is better than Daisuke's.

And I guess I was mistaken that Darvish wanted to come over. Apparently he's been coy about that, but I'm guessing MLB teams like the Yanks will be offering massive posting fees for him, leaving little choice.

[Arrian]

Perhaps Darvish would be better. FB velocity, of course, isn't all there is. Movement matters plenty, and so do his other pitches. If he does have better command with comparable or superior stuff then, damn, he's got #1 potential.

As for MLB teams... I wouldn't be surprised if a team other than the eeeeeevil Yankees got him. Because, you know, after the Yankees got Daisuke... oh, wait.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

You think Boston wants to pay another $50 mil posting fee? And Darvish would probably command more.

[Naked Gents Rut]

but I'm guessing MLB teams like the Yanks will be offering massive posting fees for him, leaving little choice.

In this economy?

Japanese players should stay in Japan, anyway. It's pretty clear at this point that Asia is the center of the baseball world.

[Imran Siddiqui]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2009/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=4011780

Appears that Price will get the Longoria treatment. Start in the minors until called up. Makes more sense for a pitcher though (to limit the innings of a young arm).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Huh:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2009/news/story?id=4025104

The team on Sunday also placed left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis on the 15-day disabled list with an anxiety disorder

[-Jrabbit]

Supposedly a blood chemistry imbalance, not a psychological issue.

Supposedly.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Willis's fall has been quite grand ever since he was the next wunderkind. And let's be honest, his 2005 season was highly, highly impressive, especially at age 23.

[OzzyKP]

Willis

[snoopy369]

Blood chemistry ?? Brain chemistry perhaps... which is the root of all psychological disorders to one degree or another

(Except stupidity. That one's all in the head.)