MLB - 2009 Regular Season Thread!!

[Imran Siddiqui]

What? You mean Japan, Cuba, and South Korea (lest you forgot who finished 3rd last time around)?

And 4th place... Dominican Republic!

US was knocked out in Round 2 last time around.

[snoopy369]

The US lost to Mexico last time around. That's like Italy losing to Holland in the WC [or, Mexico losing to the US in the WC... ]. Not particularly likely again.

If I were laying odds, I'd put Japan, Cuba, US in that order, all with relatively similar odds, SK and DR after with somewhat poorer odds, and Venezuela and Puerto Rico after that probably (unless I'm missing someone).

[Imran Siddiqui]

That's like Italy losing to Holland in the WC [or, Mexico losing to the US in the WC... ]. Not particularly likely again.

Uh... you do realize that Holland is one of the top soccer teams in the world, right? Holland beating Italy wouldn't be seen as that big of an upset at all.

[snoopy369]

Hmm, I'm not a soccer fan so perhaps that escaped me. I was of the understanding that Holland was not nearly on Italy/Brazil/Germany/Argentina's tier (not a terrible team, but not a top team).

Similarly, Mexico is not a terrible team in baseball, but they're not nearly a top team either... them beating us isn't App. State beating Michigan, but it might be more like Michigan beating Duke this year.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Holland is a Top 10 soccer team.

Regardless, even though the US lost to Mexico, it also got blown out by South Korea in the last go around (which is why the loss to Mexico kicked the US out of the "medal rounds" (so to speak)

[snoopy369]

I don't see that happening again, either, frankly; perhaps SK has a 25% chance to beat the US compared to Mexico's 5%, but it's not a likely occurrence, and I certainly don't consider SK to be one of the big 3. I think they have the advantage of a more cohesive national team, while the US is not dissimilar to US basketball (except for having two equal rivals) - if we focus and play as a team, we are one of the best, but we often don't do that.

Frankly, if they played the WBC during a two-week-long all star break, the US would be the favorite to win it (as more players would decide to play, and they'd be in playing shape). We shoot ourselves in the foot holding it when we do.

[Ming]

I'm not sure more players would agree to play if it was held in season. If anything, they might get a lot of heat from management not to because of the potential for injury. At least now, some see it as an alternative to spring training. Granted, the players would be in playing shape... but the players that took the time off would probably be better off than those that used the break to play instead.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Playing as a "team" however, is one way that teams generally get to be one of the top in a sport. South Korea may not have the talent, but if they play focused and continue to win as a result, they should be seen as a top team. Now, they may not have the same "team" attitude this time around, but I think that saying the US doesn't have the same team attitude and that hurts them doesn't exactly excuse anything.

I think you can't really talk about a "top 3" in WBC countries at this moment.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Though I think we are being somewhat unfair to Venezuela. Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, and Anibal Sanchez would have likely pitched for the team if they were not coming back from injury. That would have made the staff fairly deep.

[snoopy369]

Hmm, perhaps, though to some extent depth accounts for injuries...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yeah, but imagine if the US team had Peavy and Oswalt coming off of injury.

[snoopy369]

We'd not be nearly as poorly off, given we have a LOT more potential SPs. Worst case we'd have to give someone a call and try to convince them to play. Maybe we could follow Panama's example and get Obama to give a certain Yankees pitcher a call

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well, perhaps so, but the US would be weakened, and that may have been all the difference in, say, Canada beating us.

And I had read in a number of places (prior to A-Rod's injury and the upset by the Netherlands, of course) that the Domincan Republic was the favorite this year. This is a team that Jose Reyes wasn't able to crack the starting lineup.

[snoopy369]

Hmm, DR has several good players certainly... don't recall their pitching staff, though. And apparently their defense is not so hot

Canada shouldn't have been nearly as close as they were... probably evidence that this year's team isn't any more of a 'team' than last year's. Oh well.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Oh, and btw, after Japan's 14-2 pasting of South Korea in the first game, in the rematch in Group A, South Korea comes out on top 1-0:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/more/03/09/japan.southkorea.ap/index.html

---

The DR has undoubtably the best offense when A-Rod is healthy. Even without, they are pretty impressive. Their pitching has always been their downside, but it is serviceable.