AHL- Apolyton Hockey League 07/08: Draft II

[Ninot]

Roloson is going to be fantastic, maybe?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher
Very, very interesting strategy you have, notyoueither.

You might call it that.

Originally posted by Ninot
Roloson is going to be fantastic, maybe?

He is fantastic!

[Asher]

Originally posted by Ninot
Roloson is going to be fantastic, maybe?

Isn't it obvious he'll be in the top 3 this year?

38 year old goaltender with a bad temper and bad attitude in front of a pourous defense lead by Sheldon Souray and Joni Pitkanen and defensive forwards such as Ales Hemsky. At least they don't have Marc-Andre Bergeron to cripple Roloson this year. Not one of Edmonton's defense corps was a plus player on any team they played on.

If that doesn't scream success, I don't know what is.

[snoopy369]

How much does individual player skill contribute to +/- of that player? For that matter, for whom does it contribute more, forwards or defensemen? I would think that, other than the superstars who provide the majority of the scoring, the rest of the players are far more affected by the team they're on than by their own performance. Most goals aren't a result of one player making a mistake or playing poorly, but of several players missing or not playing quite hard enough, no? (and the same for positives) Playing alongside Ovechnik or Crosby will give you a substantial + no matter how well you play, won't it, and if anything it's only a number indicating how well you play compared to the others in your position on that team (as the coach will presumably put good players with good players on the 1st and 2nd lines).

(Goalies I would think probably have the most effect on +/- individually...)

I wonder if there could be a more useful number: +/- vs overall team +/- ? IE, if the average Calgary +/- is 15 (weighted for ice time I guess?), but Iginla is at +23, then his overall team +/- is +8 ... but on the other hand, on Nashville, Radulov is a -3 compared to NSH's average -16, then he's a +13 and better than Iginla in that stat, because he was 13 better than the average player on his team...

[Asher]

Originally posted by snoopy369
How much does individual player skill contribute to +/- of that player?

Both the team, the line, and the player make a huge difference. You need to take into account their situation when you look at the number, the number by itself means nothing. Typically a good defenseman will lead the team in +/-. For instance, in Detroit this is Lidstrom (+40) and Calgary it was Regehr (+27). Behind them are usually the top forwards that are on scoring lines.

On other teams, virtually everyone is a minus. But the people who are minus least tend to be better defensively.

Joni Pitkanen (-25) and Sheldon Souray (-28) were both on teams that were largely minus. But both were near the bottom for their teams. Pitkanen was 2nd last (Umberger was -32), but the top player was +4. This shows he's just awful defensively.

Similarly with Souray: he was dead last (-28), while the top was (+11).

Most goals aren't a result of one player making a mistake or playing poorly, but of several players missing or not playing quite hard enough, no?

Not with gems like Souray and Pitkanen. In baseball, many of their plays would be termed errors. It's sometimes a whole team thing (Philly, Boston) other times it's a player thing (Souray). The best defensemen defensively are reliable, consistent, and not prone to mistake (Lidstrom, Regehr). Souray and Pitaknen are great on a powerplay, but they simply screw up so consistently that they are defensive liabilities.

I wonder if there could be a more useful number: +/- vs overall team +/- ? IE, if the average Calgary +/- is 15 (weighted for ice time I guess?), but Iginla is at +23, then his overall team +/- is +8 ... but on the other hand, on Nashville, Radulov is a -3 compared to NSH's average -16, then he's a +13 and better than Iginla in that stat, because he was 13 better than the average player on his team...

Because that stat on its own is not helpful either. +/- is designed to be relative to its own team, it's hard to compare across teams. But when used properly, it can be used to determine who is awful defensively.

Being a plus player on Philly is VERY impressive, for instance, even if it's +1 or +2.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Asher
Because that stat on its own is not helpful either. +/- is designed to be relative to its own team, it's hard to compare across teams. But when used properly, it can be used to determine who is awful defensively.

Being a plus player on Philly is VERY impressive, for instance, even if it's +1 or +2.

Right, so wouldn't it be beneficial to have something that says "This guy is only +2 but that +2 is darned impressive when you look at his team" ... to show that his +2 is better than that guy on Detroit who's the third worst player on his team at +2?

[Asher]

Yeah, but the averages can be deceiving too due to the difference in lines. Radulov played in a 4th line role last season, Iginla played in a top line role -- Iginla faced off against the Sakics, Datsyuks, Crosbys, etc while Radulov faced off against the Belaks, Eagers, etc.

[mrboo123]

I'm assume 2 things here: He plays RW too (according to TSN and Rotoworld.com) and he'll have an break out year.

1.1 Asher: Sidney Crosby - C (PIT)
1.2 Sparrowhawk: Roberto Luongo - G (VAN)
1.3 mrboo123: Martin Brodeur - G (NJ)
1.4 notyoueither: Joe Thornton - C (SJ)
1.5 Imran Siddiqui: Miikka Kiprusoff - G (CAL)
1.6 Kontiki: Dany Heatley - RW (OTT)
1.7 snoopy369: Marian Hossa - RW (ATL)
1.8 Jonny: Jaromir Jagr - RW (NYR)
1.9 Flubber: Vincent Lecavalier - C (TB)
1.10 Ninot: Alexander Ovechkin - LW (WAS)
1.11 Guynemer: Jarome Iginla - RW (CAL)
1.12 Tingkai: Joe Sakic - C (COL)

2.1 Tingkai: Niklas Backstrom - G (MIN)
2.2 Guynemer: Olli Jokinen - C (FLA)
2.3 Ninot: Jean-Sebastien Giguere - G (ANA)
2.4 Flubber:Evgeni Nabokov - G (SJ )
2.5 Jonny: Marty Turco - G (DAL)
2.6 snoopy369: Dominic Hasek - G (DET)
2.7 Kontiki: Henrik Lundqvist - G (NYR)
2.8 Imran Siddiqui: Evgeni Malkin - LW (PIT)
2.9 notyoueither: Marian Gaborik- RW (MIN)
2.10 mrboo123: Jason Spezza - C (OTT)
2.11 Sparrowhawk: Pavel Datsyuk - C (DET)
2.12 Asher: Marc-Andre Fleury - G (PIT)

3.1 Asher: Martin St. Louis - RW (TB)
3.2 Sparrowhawk: Jonathan Cheechoo - RW (SJ)
3.3 mrboo123: Simon Gagne - LW (PHI)
3.4 notyoueither: Ilya Kovalchuk - LW (ATL)
3.5 Imran Siddiqui: Daniel Alfredsson - RW (OTT)
3.6 Kontiki: Henrik Zetterberg - LW (DET)
3.7 snoopy369: Nikolas Lidstrom - D (DET)
3.8 Jonny: Daniel Sedin - LW (VAN)
3.9 Flubber: Ray Emery - G (OTT)
3.10 Ninot: Ryan Miller - G (BUF)
3.11 Guynemer: Thomas Vanek - LW (BUF)
3.12 Tingkai: Marc Savard - C (BOS)

4.1 Tingkai: Milan Michalek - RW (SJ)
4.2 Guynemer: Rick DiPietro - G (NYI)
4.3 Ninot: Justin Williams - RW (CAR)
4.4 Flubber: Daniel Briere- C (PHI)
4.5 Jonny: Patrick Marleau - C (SJ)
4.6 snoopy369: Tomas Vokoun - G (FLA)
4.7 Kontiki: Eric Staal - C (CAR)
4.8 Imran Siddiqui: Kari Lehtonen - G (ATL)
4.9 notyoueither: Chris Pronger- D (ANH)
4.10 mrboo123: Henrik Sedin - C (VAN)
4.11 Sparrowhawk: Milan Hejduk - RW (COL)
4.12 Asher: Chris Mason - G (NSH)

5.1 Asher: Alexander Semin - LW (WAS)
5.2 Sparrowhawk: Kristian Huselius - LW (CGY)
5.3 mrboo123: Ryan Smyth - LW (COL)
5.4 notyoueither: Maxim Afinogenov - RW (BUF)
5.5 Imran Siddiqui: Andy McDonald - C (ANH)
5.6 Kontiki: Martin Biron - G (PHI)
5.7 snoopy369: Ryan Whitney - D (PIT)
5.8 Jonny: Dion Phaneuf - D (CAL)
5.9 Flubber: Alex Tanguay - LW (CAL)
5.10 Ninot: Michael Cammaleri - C (LA)
5.11 Guynemer: Sergei Gonchar - D (PIT)
5.12 Tingkai: Tomas Kaberle - D (TOR)

6.1 Tingkai: Dan Boyle - D (TB)
6.2 Guynemer: Slava Kozlov - LW (ATL)
6.3 Ninot: Michael Nylander - C (WAS)
6.4 Flubber: Andrew Brunette -LW (Col)
6.5 Jonny: Keith Tkachuk - LW (STL)
6.6 snoopy369: Mats Sundin - C (TOR)
6.7 Kontiki: Lubomir Visnovsky - D (LA)
6.8 Imran Siddiqui: Pavol Demitra - RW (MIN)
6.9 notyoueither: Brian Rolston - RW (MIN)
6.10 mrboo123: Kimmo Timonen - D (PHI)
6.11 Sparrowhawk: Alexander Frolov - LW (LA)
6.12 Asher: Bryan McCabe - D (TOR)

7.1 Asher: Paul Stastny - C (COL)
7.2 Sparrowhawk: Rod Brind'Amour - C (CAR)
7.3 mrboo123: Brian Campbell - D (BUF)
7.4 notyoueither: Brian Rafalski - D (DET)
7.5 Imran Siddiqui: Philippe Boucher - D (DAL)
7.6 Kontiki: Brad Richards -C (TB)
7.7 snoopy369: Zach Parise - LW (NJ)
7.8 Jonny: Jay Bouwmeester - D (FLA)
7.9 Flubber: Sergei Zubov - D (DAL)
7.10 Ninot: John-Michael Liles - D (COL)
7.11 Guynemer: Mathieu Schneider - D (ANH)
7.12 Tingkai: Patrick Elias - C (NJ)

8.1 Tingkai: Vesa Toskala - G (TOR)
8.2 Guynemer: Manny Legace - G (STL)
8.3 Ninot: Sheldon Souray - D (EDM)
8.4 Flubber: Jason Pominville - RW (BUF)
8.5 Jonny: Manny Fernandez - G (BOS)
8.6 snoopy369: Chris Kunitz - LW (ANA)
8.7 Kontiki: Brian Gionta - RW (NJ)
8.8 Imran Siddiqui: Paul Kariya - LW (STL)
8.9 notyoueither: Dwayne Roloson - G (EDM)
8.10 mrboo123: Martin Havlat - RW (CHI)
8.11 Sparrowhawk: Cam Ward - G (CAR)
8.12 Asher: Tomas Holmstrom - LW (DET)

9.1 Asher: Mike Knuble - RW (PHI)
9.2 Sparrowhawk: Ryan Getzlaf - C (ANA)
9.3 mrboo123: Corey Perry - RW (ANA)
9.4 notyoueither: Chris Drury - C (NYR)
9.5 Imran Siddiqui: Cristobal Huet - G (MON)
9.6 Kontiki: Brendan Shanahan - LW (NYR)
9.7 snoopy369: Peter Budaj - G (COL)
9.8 Jonny: Derek Roy - C (BUF)
9.9 Flubber: Olaf Kolzig -G (Was)
9.10 Ninot: Mark Recchi - RW (PIT)
9.11 Guynemer: Bill Guerin - RW (NYI)
9.12 Tingkai: Erik Cole - LW (CAR)

10.1 Tingkai: Markus Naslund - RW (VAN)
10.2 Guynemer: Daymond Langkow - C (CGY)
10.3 Ninot: Rick Nash - LW (CBJ)
10.4 Flubber: Matt Carle - D (SJ)
10.5 Jonny: Alexander Radulov - RW (NSH)
10.6 snoopy369: Scott Gomez - C (NYR)
10.7 Kontiki: Marc-Andre Bergeron - D (NYI)
10.8 Imran Siddiqui: Zdeno Chara - D (BOS)
10.9 notyoueither: Ray Whitney - LW (CAR)
10.10 mrboo123: Brad Boyes - C (STL)
10.11 Sparrowhawk:
10.12 Asher:

11.1 Asher:
11.2 Sparrowhawk:
11.3 mrboo123:
11.4 notyoueither:
11.5 Imran Siddiqui:
11.6 Kontiki:
11.7 snoopy369:
11.8 Jonny:
11.9 Flubber:
11.10 Ninot:
11.11 Guynemer:
11.12 Tingkai:

[Asher]

Come on Sparrow boyyyy, get here before I leave.

[mrboo123]

ditto

[Asher]

FWIW, last year Boyes was "C,RW" most of the season.

[Asher]

Who's going to be around for a bit?

It's kind of frustrating how it's always my turn in the ~3 hours of the day I'm not available.

[Asher]

I'll PM my list to snoopy369 again I guess.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher
Who's going to be around for a bit?

It's kind of frustrating how it's always my turn in the ~3 hours of the day I'm not available.

We have been pretty consistent- I always seem to have turn around 6-7 am here and then another just before midnight

[snoopy369]

mrboo you can feel free to PM me picks as well At some point i'll leave for home but it's at most an hour turn around.