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**gjramsey** · August 8, 2007, 14:16

Yippee! I don't have to select a different mediocre QB!

**Jaguar** · August 8, 2007, 14:27

**snoopy369** · August 8, 2007, 14:31

JR for your general reference, backup TE ranks below backup DEF because you can always pick up a perfectly good TE, one that is the equivalent of who would be available now, were your top TE to go out (or for his bye week).

This is not the case with Defense. Generally by the end of a 10 team 16 round draft, few if any passable defenses are on the waiver wire, and the difference between a defense now and a defense later is substantial. The #11 defense will outscore the #20 defense by a significant amount. Further, defense has a much higher likelihood of having a dramatic year to year variance. Not necessarily top to bottom - although that's happened - but look at CAR last year. Typically ranked #2, or even #1 after their great 2005 season, and drafted similarly to where BAL is being drafted this year, they ended the year a disappointing 8th (in standard scoring methods) due to injuries and whatnot. Not only 8th, but well out of the top tier of points.

**gjramsey** · August 8, 2007, 14:56

Def is too fricking random in the NFL anymore. From week to week, a Def that is awesome one week can easily get waxed the next, and Def like Houston can look like world betters for one week. Even for a top tier, and like you said, between the variance from year to year and a set of injuries can really screw up what looked to be a good Def team.

That is why I usually have no concern carrying only one on my roster, and then see how the season progresses with who to pick up on the buy week.

That being said, I should have gone for a D in the 11th round but biffed the pick, and now will pick the best avail in the 16th.

**-Jrabbit** · August 8, 2007, 15:06

Snoop -- LOL at "ranks below" as if there's some reference source that makes this thought bible.

My POV: TEs get hurt. RBs and WRs get hurt.
But the great D/ST always plays, and remains above average even with some injuries.

If you've got Baltimore or Chicago, you're never resting the D/ST unless they get racked by injuries, plus of course the Bye. Meanwhile, you're going to be short a roster spot for all those other weeks (at least until after the bye, when I assume even you would drop your spare).

Your contention that there's a wide gulf between D/ST 11 and 20 is interesting (read: pure bull IMHO), expecially since you note in the very next sentence that the #8 D/ST is already "well below" the top tier of points. This is exactly the area where decisions are ruled by matchups rather than preseason strength, so logic dictates that one wait to see how the Actual Season develops to determine what makes sense for that one week.

OTOH, every season sees breakouts stars that are unexpected and often undrafted -- Furrey, Cotchery, and Jones-Drew come to mind from 06. With a short bench, I'd rather take a flier on a skill position big upside than use a spot on a D/ST being save for one week.

Don't get me wrong, snoop, I appreciate your condescending attempt to school me in the fine art of FF rosters. But I've played in two D/ST leagues, have never carried a backup, and it never hurt me. Finished 2nd one year, one game out of playoffs the other.

I respect your point of view. It's certainly valid. But it's not the only one.

**Berzerker** · August 8, 2007, 15:17

isnt snoop up in the other league?

**-Jrabbit** · August 8, 2007, 15:22

Yeah, but he was busy teaching me the fine points.

Now he's showing offline...

**SlowwHand** · August 8, 2007, 18:33

If anyone wants to pick 6 WR, feel free.
They'll sit, like the Defense or TE that keeps trying to be used as an example.
I'm going to have 2 defenses, because I feel like it.

Poorly-kept secret, wasn't it? I blew that one.

**snoopy369** · August 8, 2007, 18:49

JR, i've played in over a dozen FFL leagues and spend a lot of time reading strategy guides and whatnot. Most "respected" strategy guides tell you flat out to not pick a backup TE at all, unless you are in some absurd league with 10 bench spots. The same draft guides will tell you to take a backup DEF.

I'm sorry you think i'm being condescending, but I'm just explaining what the general opinion of experts in the field is, and then explaining why I agree with that general opinion...

DEF has three major tiers that are worth taking, and two that are not. Tier 1: Bears, Ravens. Tier 2: Next 8 or 10 teams, depending on the system, but off the top of my head it's NE (close to tier 1), Pittsburgh, Carolina, Dallas, Jacksonville, SD, Miami, Philadelphia, in my opinion (as in all things the specific composition of the tier varies by opinion on future performance; Jag would include GB in the second tier, for exampe). Tier 3 this year, at least to me, is pretty small, but it includes teams like Green Bay, Seattle, Oakland, and Minnesota, teams that will play well enough to be worth starting sometimes. I don't recall my specific tier 3 at the moment, as I try to stay in tier 1-2, but it is something like 8 teams.

Those tiers each have a distinct separation in points between each tier, just like there's a tier of LT/LJ/SJ/Gore (in my book, Gore varies) of RBs where the next RB is a significant dropoff.

You will note that I consider 10 teams to be in Tiers 1 and 2, and around 8 in tier 3, meaning that several players will not be able to take a tier 3 defense as a backup defense. It also means that on the waiver wire will be exclusively tier 4 and 5 defenses. Tier 4 and 5 defenses typically get you only a couple of points a game at most, and will sometimes net you negative points. These are the defenses that give up 20+ points a game and get few sacks or turnovers.

TE, on the other hand, have a slightly different set of tiers:

Tier 1: Antonio Gates
Tier 2: Gonzo, Shockey, Crumper, Heap, Cooley, Winslow
Tier 3: V Davis, LJ Smith, Ben Watson, Heath Miller, Dallas Clark, Randy McMichael, probably 1 or 2 i'm missing
Tier 4: about 10 other TEs

You'll notice that there are just over the number of total players in tiers 1-3. 13-15 depending on if i'm missing a couple (and your personal opinions). This doesn't tell all of the story, however; the big part is that Tier 3 and Tier 4 are very close together. This is because TE doesn't score many points (even in catch leagues). A Tier 3 TE will catch maybe 3 TDs and 40 balls in a season for 300 yards (off the top of my head), for 40+15+18 or 73 points, / 16 games is just over 4 points a game. A tier 4 TE will catch maybe 2 TDs and 30 balls in a season for 240 yards, for 30+12+12 or 54 points, / 16 games is just over 3 points a game.

So the difference between a Tier 3 and Tier 4 TE is a point a game. You going to waste a roster spot on someone who might earn you 1 point a game more? (My numbers may not be precisely on, i'm still at work and can't check the specifics, but this is the reasoning, i'll check the #s when i get home.)

Defenses, however, you will earn much more on - a tier 3 defense earns iirc 8 points a game while a tier 4 defense earns 5 points a game. I'd definitely prefer 3 points per game.

Basically it comes down to: You can have as your backup either Randy McMichael or Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen (whichever is playing week 5). Do you really care which you have? They're both pretty much the same... but one will be on the waiver wire [in most leagues, olsen went way early in this one] while the other takes up a valuable roster spot.

On the other hand, you can either have as a backup defense, Seattle or New Orleans. Which one do you go with there? A bit easier to make that decision i'd think...

**snoopy369** · August 8, 2007, 18:52

All of that is aside from the fact that you should always play matchups with defenses, more so than any other position, unless you have a super defense like CHI/BAL. That didn't apply for b etor so I didn't mention it here, but that's the overrideing reason for having a second; you will actually PLAY both defenses from time to time. Defense score is so much relevant to the opponent you're playing [some people this year are taking GB, MIN, and DET, and playing them alternately based on who's playing the Bears ... lol] Extreme example, but it gets the point across.

**b etor** · August 8, 2007, 18:59

umm so why did you do guys do another BAPAY for me? did you not see http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...23#post5007823 ?

i can do my last pick myself, thanks.

**SlowwHand** · August 8, 2007, 19:15

Do you know the meaning of "having a lot of gall"?

That reference is nothing. Are you drunk again?
You can't fall off the wagon until you get on it.

**b etor** · August 8, 2007, 19:23

no i do not know the meaning of that.

and i did not get drunk. i don't do that.

**Koyaanisqatsi** · August 8, 2007, 19:27

Originally posted by b etor
umm so why did you do guys do another BAPAY for me? did you not see http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...23#post5007823 ?

i can do my last pick myself, thanks.

Because I remembered your other post as

could you do that BAPAY thing for the other rounds for me ~~if i'm not here~~? i really don't care who gets picked now.

Which, looking at it now, was not entirely accurate, and nobody else apparently noticed either. Sorry...you can swap him out if you want, I believe.

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Jaguar's Fantasy Football League - Draft (cont.)

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