How many DLs would we need to set up a decent debate?

[Dauphin]

I suspect warning signs of a serious incursion against the Baltics will begin with an increase in complaints about hindered traffic between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia and would be followed by increased complaints of persecution of Russian speakers in the baltics. I'm sure Putin already believes that if any NATO member invokes article 5 that Trump would formally repudiate the US article 5 obligations. Putin would love that of course and can be expected to seek to provoke that before the end of Trump's term. The only thing preventing it is how badly Ukraine continues to pressure them. I don't think Putin is convinced he would probably get a non WMD "victory" against NATO (even without the US helping NATO) so long as Ukraine is successfully contesting his special military operation there. If you love Europe (or hate a broken NATO formally at war with Russia while the US sits on the sidelines) you need to shore up Ukraine.

Also if you're thinking that Putin might do it without beating Ukraine because he reasons that Trump would actually not just sit it out but would take Russia's side materially, forget it. Putin would be far too paranoid to stake any decision on his expectations of help from an outside power.

I bet Putin is pinning his hopes on a breakup of EU solidarity through political change to win the war against Ukraine through its isolation. He will become desperate to defeat Ukraine before Trump's term to allow a breakup of NATO so I wonder what his plan "B" will be if an end of EU support for Ukraine doesn't materialize before then?

My observation is that NATO has a hard time surviving when there isn't a common primary enemy. During the Cold War it worked - Europe, US and Canada all had the USSR as the common primary threat. Today that is not true. The US sees China as the primary threat now, and that Russia can be a beneficial counterbalance. And I think Russia sees China as more of a threat than the US or at least enough to see the US as a potential deterrent to China that they can exploit. i.e. there is an increasing alignment in interest between Russia and the US

It's the same reason India and Pakistan never really got truly aligned post-war - they were too busy being concerned with each other and the West and USSR would only go so far to placate interests unaligned with own.

So set aside US domestic politics, I don't think it matters whether Donnie is in charge or someone else - Russia can exploit that strategic difference in perceived primary threat.

[Dauphin]

And of courses why USSR and Allies worked together in WW2 (same primary threat) and it all changed very suddenly when that threat was gone.

[BeBMan]

The US sees China as the primary threat now, and that Russia can be a beneficial counterbalance. And I think Russia sees China as more of a threat than the US or at least enough to see the US as a potential deterrent to China that they can exploit. i.e. there is an increasing alignment in interest between Russia and the US

From what I read this seems to be something which has support in certain US circles (aka Donnie and some followers) to deal with China, but the rational/interest core of it seems to be completely lost to folks who call the shots (hehe) in Moscow, mostly due to historical and ideological reasons.

Putin et al are still in the "US is teh Satan" mode, and seem to think they're still some kind of superpowah. I remember particularly the ideas Russia was presenting publicly prior Feb 2022 (during their own build up of forces for the following invasion) as some kind of "new security architecture" for Europe, which included ultimative demands for a stop of any further NATO expansion and the removal of US troops/bases at least from Eastern Europe IIRC.

[Geronimo]

My observation is that NATO has a hard time surviving when there isn't a common primary enemy. During the Cold War it worked - Europe, US and Canada all had the USSR as the common primary threat. Today that is not true. The US sees China as the primary threat now, and that Russia can be a beneficial counterbalance. And I think Russia sees China as more of a threat than the US or at least enough to see the US as a potential deterrent to China that they can exploit. i.e. there is an increasing alignment in interest between Russia and the US

It's the same reason India and Pakistan never really got truly aligned post-war - they were too busy being concerned with each other and the West and USSR would only go so far to placate interests unaligned with own.

So set aside US domestic politics, I don't think it matters whether Donnie is in charge or someone else - Russia can exploit that strategic difference in perceived primary threat.

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine makes zero sense if Putin saw the PRC as any kind of threat to Russia whatsoever.

[Dauphin]

Misunderstanding who your primary adversary is (hence my use of 'perceived'), and where to place your resources is not uncommon.

[Dauphin]

Russia completely miscalculated with Ukraine, so their actions are not a great indicator of optimal strategy.