Mexico Now U.S. top trade partner

[PLATO]

In a growing environment of "de-risking", Mexico has now assumed the role of top U.S. trade partner. Given the impact of a large trade imbalance had on China's growth, what can we expect from Mexico in the future? Will we see the "rise" of Mexico or will this be a corruption windfall south of the boarder? What does this mean for immigration if this relationship continues to grow?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mexico-has-either-just-overtaken-china-as-leading-exporter-to-u-s-or-its-had-title-all-year-d6daa983?mod=home-page

[N35t0r]

In a growing environment of "de-risking", Mexico has now assumed the role of top U.S. trade partner. Given the impact of a large trade imbalance had on China's growth, what can we expect from Mexico in the future? Will we see the "rise" of Mexico or will this be a corruption windfall south of the boarder? What does this mean for immigration if this relationship continues to grow?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mexico-has-either-just-overtaken-china-as-leading-exporter-to-u-s-or-its-had-title-all-year-d6daa983?mod=home-page

I think for a long time already the majority of border crossers haven't been Mexican, but latin Americans from further south.

What would be really good for mexico is for the US to legalize drugs and start seriously restricting guns (upwards of 50% of all illegal guns in central America were bought legally in the US). But we know that's not going to happen.

[PLATO]

I think for a long time already the majority of border crossers haven't been Mexican, but latin Americans from further south.

I guess the question should be then...Does a Mexico "on the rise" become a destination instead of a waypoint?

What would be really good for mexico is for the US to legalize drugs and start seriously restricting guns (upwards of 50% of all illegal guns in central America were bought legally in the US). But we know that's not going to happen.

I think the U.S. will eventually get there on some drugs, but probably just a few. Guns are a whole different question. I just don't see any meaningful gun control coming in my lifetime. That being said, Mexico can do a lot to control its own borders...maybe they will have the surplus to do it if corruption doesn't rule.


The fundamental questions here, imo, are:

1.) Will this lead to a meaningful increase in National wealth and prosperity?
2.) How will Mexico invest an increase in National wealth? Can Mexico mirror China's economic miracle?

[N35t0r]

I guess the question should be then...Does a Mexico "on the rise" become a destination instead of a waypoint?

It is both. Also, IIRC most illegal immigrants to the US arrived there legally and overstay their visa; illegal border crossings afaik have been going down for a long time.

I think the U.S. will eventually get there on some drugs, but probably just a few. Guns are a whole different question. I just don't see any meaningful gun control coming in my lifetime. That being said, Mexico can do a lot to control its own borders...maybe they will have the surplus to do it if corruption doesn't rule.

Well, having a constant flow of illegal cash and weapons from the north doesn't exactly help them control their own borders.
If the USA, the richest country on the planet, cannot effectively control it's own borders, it's hard to think Mexico, with much less resources, will.

The fundamental questions here, imo, are:

1.) Will this lead to a meaningful increase in National wealth and prosperity?
2.) How will Mexico invest an increase in National wealth? Can Mexico mirror China's economic miracle?

Define meaningful. Also, this is a process that has been going on for a long time, and Mexico has been slowly improving economically for the past years. They still have a big security issue with the cartels that is not getting better though.

As for your second question, that is doubtful. China's development was tied to a highly autocratic leadership willing to keep a majority of their population under conditions most westerners would not accept. Mexico still has a higher ppp-adjusted GDP per Capita than China, so from one point of view, Mexico already achieved that miracle a long time ago

[pchang]

Mexico’s peso is much higher compared to the USD than it was a year ago. This has had a depressing effect on the value of remittances back into Mexico. This has slowed down many construction projects in rural areas.