Prediction Thread: predict the GOP presidential candidate for 2024

[BeBMan]

Let's have a thread for it.

Public, single option.

[Proteus_MST]

Trump, there can be no doubts.
His followers are so thoroughly brainwashed, that it surely is true that Trump could shoot someone in plain view in the 5th Avenue and not lose a single follower.

He could even admit that he is in only in order to grab the money of his followers and enrich himself and the Trumpists would still be voting for him.

Of course the fact that there seem to be so many opponents (to Trump) seem to be running in the Primaries also plays into Trumps hands, as the Trumpists will still vote for Trump, while the republican opposition to Trump will distribute its votes among multiple candidates.

The only thing that could prevent Trump winning the GOP primaries would be, if Trump himself died prematurely, of if he voluntarily stepped back from his presidential candidacy

[PLATO]

Proteus nailed it.

[Berzerker]

or involuntarily

[Geronimo]

If Trump wins at least one good result would be Berz's delusions of deep state neo-con control of everything would be shattered. Maybe the only good result.

[-Jrabbit]

No, that's not how this works. He would simply jump to the next-gen version of the same theory.

[Dauphin]

I find the betting markets interesting here.

Implied odds of Trump winning election is about 27%.
Implied odds of Trump winning nomination is about 65%
Implied odds of Republicans winning election is about 50%
Implied odds of Republicans winning election with Trump is about 42% (0.27 / 0.65)

For DeSantis
Implied odds of DeSantis winning election is about 16%.
Implied odds of DeSantis winning nomination is about 30%
Implied odds of Republicans winning election is about 50%
Implied odds of Republicans winning election with DeSantis is about 53% (0.16 / 0.30)

If Republicans want to win, they should vote DeSantis.....


For Biden, he has an 80% chance of getting the nomination. I guess they think he has a 20% chance of being ruled out due to things that happen to old people.

[Berzerker]

We just watched the deep state interfere in 2 elections to defeat Trump

[pchang]

And yet, Trump won one of them anyway without even carrying the popular vote. This “deep” state seems pretty shallow to me.

[Berzerker]

they lied to a fisa court to spy on Trump, get any deeper and Biden will set a record at the polls

[Dauphin]

This deep state, are they in the room with you now?

[Berzerker]

if they want... I'm sure I've made someone's list of traitors

[Berzerker]

Trump cited the case of Johnson, whose sentence he commuted in 2018. Johnson was serving life in prison dating back to 1996 on charges stemming from cocaine distribution and money laundering. Johnson was later featured in a Super Bowl ad promoting Trump’s work on criminal justice reform.

“But she’d be killed under your plan,” Baier noted.

“Huh?” Trump responded.

“As a drug dealer,” Baier replied.

“No, no, no. Oh, under that? It would depend on the severity,” Trump added.

Pressed on the issue further, Trump suggested Johnson would not have committed the same crime if the threat of the death penalty were hanging over her.

“She wouldn’t have done it, if it was death penalty,” Trump said. “In other words, if it was death penalty, she wouldn’t have been on that phone call.”

Think I'll be voting 3rd party again

[BeBMan]

We just watched the deep state interfere in 2 elections to defeat Trump

In Russia these days the State is the Deep State, so the distinction is meaningless.

[SlowwHand]

Trump ‐ DeSantis