Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

1994 - Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward? The nukes weren't operable, Russia had the keys.
Maidan was not narrowly popular and was more unpopular in E Ukraine. The coup and Crimea were in 2014. Separatists protested the coup and took control of govt buildings in the Donbas.

"A national survey held in March-April 2014 found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine.^[52]"

Even if I grant you all of these quoted points, how in the hell does that get you to Ukraine being a nazi state controlled by a washington neocon cabal that forced a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine to occur?

My take, with or without your points here is that Ukraine is a deeply divided society. Russia pushed, pulled and manipulated Ukraine to stay closer to and more dependent on Russia while the US and the EU pushed and pulled Ukraine towards the EU and NATO. When a president pissed off one side of the divide it led to huge protests which Russia and the West tried to take advantage of to push and pull their interests. When the dust settled the Ukrainian government swung west, Russia made a grab for Crimea and instigated and assisted the Donbas rebellion as a strategic buffer/insurance for its new conquest. When it was clear that Ukraine was never going to relinquish its claim to Crimea Putin began to look for a convenient time to grab the rest and neutralize NATO credibility. Putin noted France, Germany and other NATO heavy weights were quite happy to expand business with Russia. Putin noted that NATO had given almost no military support to Ukraine and the Budapest memoradum Ukrainian security guarantee obligations of the US and of the UK were essentially ignored. Putin recognized the global post covid chaos, signals of support of Russia from the PRC and the post Afganistan Western meltdown as a unique opportunity to enact the masterplan. Everyone who reported to Putin had learned over the years that the best way to advance and stay out of trouble was to feed Putin information he wanted to believe so everybody who had his ear told him that conditions for an operation against Ukraine were extremely favorable. Putin moved his enormous force into place. Putin couldn't hide something that big and NATO panicked and negotiated to avoid it. NATO was terrified that conceding to Putin control of internal NATO decisions like membership accession mechanisms would fatally undermine NATO viability. Putin calculated that a successful Ukrainian operation would break NATO confidence and dissolve NATO future viability anyway so he felt no pressure to settle. He was confident Western divisions were profound and leadership was totally absent. He attacked.

What if NATO had not expanded? He would have attacked earlier.

How in the hell do you figure Washington Neocons made all of this happen?

[BeBMan]

Are you saying opinion polls in another country legitimize an attack on that country?

[BeBMan]

Looks like Russia is finally taking the threat from squirrels seriously:

World Wildlife Fund declared "foreign agent"

(...)“under the guise of protecting nature and the environment […] tried to influence the decisions of the executive and legislative branches of the Russian Federation, and to hinder the completion of industrial and infrastructural projects.”(...)

The WWF should clearly stand down before Medvedev calls for nuking nature or somesuch.

[Berzerker]

real events in Ukraine;


1994 ukraine gives Russia a giant windfall gift of the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal and triad in exchange only for Russia promises to recognize and protect ukraine's borders and integrity. The US and UK also sign on in exchange for nothing except obligations to guarantee the independence and integrity of Ukraine.

2013. Putin pressures duly elected Ukrainian president to back out of narrowly popularly supported deal that would grant trade concessions to the EU and establish closer economic trade relations with the EU.

2013 Duly elected Ukrainian president backs out of said deal.

2013 Duly elected president faces large protests for canceling the narrowly popularly supported EU deal.

2013 foreign governments get more busy behind the scenes trying to manipulate the conflict to their advantage.

2013 snipers shoot police and protestors

2013 duly elected president is forced from power by concerted effort by other Ukrainian branches of government. Duly elected president is replaced by someone Nuland is on record as favoring to lead.

2013 little green men occupy Crimea.

2013-2014 abruptly organized illegal local elections declare independence of Crimea and Donbas from Ukraine.

2014 little green men and a hastily armed local militia force attack Ukrainian regular armed forces stationed in the Donbas who flee.

2014 largely russian speaking Dobas locals form Azov and other right wing paramilitary units that attack the Donbas Russian little green men and new independence militias. Sometimes with assistance fro. The returning regular Ukrainian armed forces.

2014 after a lot of fighting Minsk I agreement is negotiated and fighting continues

2015 after more fighting Minsk Ii agreement is negotiated and fighting continues
2018 after years of sitting on its hands and ignoring it's Budapest memorandum obligations, the US sends its first lethal aid to Ukraine. $47 mill in javelins and light weapons.

2021 Russia spends months building and massing a giant invasion force which is noticed and promises it has no intention of attacking anyone and makes various demands on nato in exchange for not attacking anyone.

2022 Russia recognizes donbas independence and invades Ukraine from 3 sides...

I'll probably make a more complete timeliness later but for now it's obvious, this isn't an attack by neocons on Russia. This is an attack by Russia on ukraine.

1994 - Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward? The nukes weren't operable, Russia had the keys.
Maidan was not narrowly popular and was more unpopular in E Ukraine. The coup and Crimea were in 2014. Separatists protested the coup and took control of govt buildings in the Donbas.

"A national survey held in March-April 2014 found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine.^[52]"

[Geronimo]

A little more for now

[Geronimo]

Why do you keep using analogies instead of events in Ukraine?

real events in Ukraine;


1994 ukraine gives Russia a giant windfall gift of the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal and triad in exchange only for Russia promises to recognize and protect ukraine's borders and integrity. The US and UK also sign on in exchange for nothing except obligations to guarantee the independence and integrity of Ukraine.

2013. Putin pressures duly elected Ukrainian president to back out of narrowly popularly supported deal that would grant trade concessions to the EU and establish closer economic trade relations with the EU.

2013 Duly elected Ukrainian president backs out of said deal.

2013 Duly elected president faces large protests for canceling the narrowly popularly supported EU deal.

2013 foreign governments get more busy behind the scenes trying to manipulate the conflict to their advantage.

2013 snipers shoot police and protestors

2013 duly elected president is forced from power by concerted effort by other Ukrainian branches of government. Duly elected president is replaced by someone Nuland is on record as favoring to lead.

2013 little green men occupy Crimea.

2013-2014 abruptly organized illegal local elections declare independence of Crimea and Donbas from Ukraine.

2014 little green men and a hastily armed local militia force attack Ukrainian regular armed forces stationed in the Donbas who flee.

2014 largely russian speaking Dobas locals form Azov and other right wing paramilitary units that attack the Donbas Russian little green men and new independence militias. Sometimes with assistance fro. The returning regular Ukrainian armed forces.

2014 after a lot of fighting Minsk I agreement is negotiated and fighting continues

2015 after more fighting Minsk Ii agreement is negotiated and fighting continues
2018 after years of sitting on its hands and ignoring it's Budapest memorandum obligations, the US sends its first lethal aid to Ukraine. $47 mill in javelins and light weapons.

2021 Russia spends months building and massing a giant invasion force which is noticed and promises it has no intention of attacking anyone and makes various demands on nato in exchange for not attacking anyone.

2022 Russia recognizes donbas independence and invades Ukraine from 3 sides...

I'll probably make a more complete timeliness later but for now it's obvious, this isn't an attack by neocons on Russia. This is an attack by Russia on ukraine.

[Berzerker]

93% of Crimea voted to join the new USSR under Gorbachev's deal. When that fell thru, 54% voted to join Ukraine.

[Berzerker]

Both of you posted polls showing a minority supported Maidan before the massacre, yours showed 45% and his was 49%.

What conspiracy theory was debunked by subsequent elections? The Donbas supported Minsk and referendum in pursuit of greater autonomy. Do you have polling that shows otherwise?

[Berzerker]

Why do you keep using analogies instead of events in Ukraine?

[Stantroll]

Had the Russkies just dropped a cluster bomb around here during a meal pause ca. 1996-1999, I'd have been OK with that...

[Broken_Erika]

Plus, Stalin's policies were a continuation of Russia's historical policies of Russification.

[Dinner]

Well worth reading including the parts about 93% of Ukraine voting for independence from the USSR including the"Russia" ethnic areas of Ukraine including Donbas, Crimea, and Kharkov. BTW all of those "ethic Russian areas" are directly the result of Stalin's ethnic cleansing policies and deliberate ethnic colonization and Imperialism.

https://youtu.be/94bqk8cB9iQ

[PLATO]

Wayback machine from December 2013 shows more people supported than opposed.

https://web.archive.org/web/20131213064315/http://rb.com.ua/eng/projects/omnibus/8840/

Almost a half of Ukrainians (49%) support the Euromaydan in Kiev, at the same time almost the equal number of respondents (45%) have the opposite opinion.

Seems support fluctuated but was generally 50:50 with a margin of error.

This is the correct interpretation of the data. To say that the population opposed maiden would be inaccurate. In fact, the trend post maiden shows that many were probably in support but simply feared change. Once change to a more free society began to happen, these fears fell away and support grew. It is really quite simple. Berz is undoubtedly misinterpreting the data and using that misinterpretation to further a conspiracy theory that has been, if by nothing else, completely debunked by subsequent elections.

[Geronimo]

Only a third of British American colonists supported independence. The Boston massacre was clearly a French neocon coup operation to create a puppet state and spark a proxy war against the hated British empire. Americans knew all along who was really behind the "Revolution".

[Dauphin]

Wayback machine from December 2013 shows more people supported than opposed.

https://web.archive.org/web/20131213064315/http://rb.com.ua/eng/projects/omnibus/8840/

Almost a half of Ukrainians (49%) support the Euromaydan in Kiev, at the same time almost the equal number of respondents (45%) have the opposite opinion.

Seems support fluctuated but was generally 50:50 with a margin of error.