Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Egbert]

The worse problem with nukes is their actual use. You are thinking that the key to avoiding that is to recognize and submit to the strongest demands and presumed desires of those who have nukes, especially lots of nukes, so that they are no longer angry or threatened enough to use them. Policies arising from that attitude will surely make nuclear war far more likely, possibly even inevitable. If any country can ever be shown to obtain geopolitical advantage, including dodging geopolitical disadvantage, owing to their nukes, then as a matter of course every other country will understand that possessing nukes will confers advantage.

Being angry, or facing unacceptable losses doesn't make using nukes more desirable or even more palatable. Being better off after using them or because of threatening to use them makes using them more likely or threatening to use them more likely.
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Putin knows that Putin will probably be dead personally if he uses nukes. If he is insane, all bets are off. It won't pay to try plan for all possible psychotic behavior since it is irrational and there's no reason to believe caving will lead to better behavior rather than expanded psychotic behavior.

If West restrains Ukraine in hopes of staving off nuclear war, everyone will realize that is why they did it and there will be an enormous nuclear arms race and someone in the near future, probably Putin himself, will see how much more they can get with an even more "credible" nuclear threat. There's no way humanity lasts long after that.

I am thinking, not of appeasement, but what happens when a nuclear power is facing humiliation. Losing the Crimea would be a humiliation for Putin and a decisive defeat for Russia.

My thinking is "how would Putin react if Ukraine captured Crimea and demanded it in a peace treaty". Could Putin stay in power if he accepted this? Would Russia feel so humiliated that they would actually use a nuclear weapon?

At what point would nuclear weapons be used?

[Geronimo]

How did they have fair elections when the Nazis were murdering people and shelling eastern Ukrainians? In my hypothetical the state(s) rejecting Trump's coup dont get to vote in any 'fair election', they're under assault by Trump's army. Do you really believe the CIA and Ukrainian right wing allowed fair elections after murdering a bunch of people to overthrow the elected leader? The people of the Donbas dont share your opinion, they consistently voted for independence for decades before the man they elected was forced out. My God Jimmy Dore is right, the USA is the world's biggest terrorist.

What are your sources? If you don't trust the Central Election Commission (Ukraine) why do you trust your sources and their claims about election results?

[Berzerker]

The fact that Euromaiden was an illegal coup became irrelevant to the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government following future fair elections. It never became entirely irrelevant as a lesson and as an injustice. If trump used a Nazi army to overthrow Biden in a coup I would totally reject the legitimacy of the government but after the next fair elections I would accept the government of the legitimate winner of the fair elections. So yes, after new elections I would tell the people opposing the new legitimately elected US government to just accept it.

How did they have fair elections when the Nazis were murdering people and shelling eastern Ukrainians? In my hypothetical the state(s) rejecting Trump's coup dont get to vote in any 'fair election', they're under assault by Trump's army. Do you really believe the CIA and Ukrainian right wing allowed fair elections after murdering a bunch of people to overthrow the elected leader? The people of the Donbas dont share your opinion, they consistently voted for independence for decades before the man they elected was forced out. My God Jimmy Dore is right, the USA is the world's biggest terrorist.

[Geronimo]

I don't think PRC and Russia will ever trust each other the way Ukraine's allies do however. That has implications for the nuclear game theory conclusions. When either Russia or PRC envision an apocalyptic exchange scenario I wouldn't be at all surprised if they both make assumptions that their planning assumptions might require destroying the other to avoid a post exchange existential threat from the other.

[pchang]

When I told Serb that Russia would soon be China's lapdog I was trolling. But, I was also serious and it appears, quite accurate.

[Geronimo]

I too started to think that this may be a way for the West to weaken Russia; but what would the long (and short) term result be of a weakened Russia? The answer is starting to happen. Stronger Sino-Russian relations. Since the West (for the most part) stopped buying all those Russian resources, China could buy them cheap. We're driving huge amounts of cheap resources to our greatest competitor.

Once Russia decided it wanted territory more than good relations with the West any trade with Russia just became a vulnerability for Russia to exploit anyway.

[-Jrabbit]

Yes, it is.

[Geronimo]

I see in the news that Xi Jinping wants to talk to Zelensky with proposals for peace between Russia and Ukraine.

This seems a welcome development because this war must come to an end. My great fear is that Ukraine might capture Crimea nd expect to keep it however anything less than a "status quo ante bellum" peace would be utterly humiliating for Russia and imperil the government to the point that nuclear weapons may be used.

I am not ware of any end game to all this western support upon which the Ukraine depends. There should be some point at which the "west" tells the Ukraine to make peace and yet we have heard nothing.

I am growing increasingly suspicious of western, particularly American, motives in this war. I am growing increasingly suspicious that is being used as a proxy war to weaken Russia, there being considerable oil and gas and resources in Russia.

The worse problem with nukes is their actual use. You are thinking that the key to avoiding that is to recognize and submit to the strongest demands and presumed desires of those who have nukes, especially lots of nukes, so that they are no longer angry or threatened enough to use them. Policies arising from that attitude will surely make nuclear war far more likely, possibly even inevitable. If any country can ever be shown to obtain geopolitical advantage, including dodging geopolitical disadvantage, owing to their nukes, then as a matter of course every other country will understand that possessing nukes will confers advantage.

Being angry, or facing unacceptable losses doesn't make using nukes more desirable or even more palatable. Being better off after using them or because of threatening to use them makes using them more likely or threatening to use them more likely.
.
Putin knows that Putin will probably be dead personally if he uses nukes. If he is insane, all bets are off. It won't pay to try plan for all possible psychotic behavior since it is irrational and there's no reason to believe caving will lead to better behavior rather than expanded psychotic behavior.

If West restrains Ukraine in hopes of staving off nuclear war, everyone will realize that is why they did it and there will be an enormous nuclear arms race and someone in the near future, probably Putin himself, will see how much more they can get with an even more "credible" nuclear threat. There's no way humanity lasts long after that.

[Donegeal]

I am growing increasingly suspicious of western, particularly American, motives in this war. I am growing increasingly suspicious that is being used as a proxy war to weaken Russia, there being considerable oil and gas and resources in Russia.

I too started to think that this may be a way for the West to weaken Russia; but what would the long (and short) term result be of a weakened Russia? The answer is starting to happen. Stronger Sino-Russian relations. Since the West (for the most part) stopped buying all those Russian resources, China could buy them cheap. We're driving huge amounts of cheap resources to our greatest competitor.

[Geronimo]

MAGA didn't shoot over a hundred cops and protesters. And if you agree it was an illegal coup why would that be irrelevant to the voters who elected the man they ousted? If MAGA was successful and Trump sent a Nazi army to attack a state for rejecting his coup, would you tell them to just accept it?

The fact that Euromaiden was an illegal coup became irrelevant to the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government following future fair elections. It never became entirely irrelevant as a lesson and as an injustice. If trump used a Nazi army to overthrow Biden in a coup I would totally reject the legitimacy of the government but after the next fair elections I would accept the government of the legitimate winner of the fair elections. So yes, after new elections I would tell the people opposing the new legitimately elected US government to just accept it.

[BeBMan]

I look forward to Putin's speech in Ki'ev tonight, celebration his obvious victory.

Putin is Xi's poodle now.

[Egbert]

I see in the news that Xi Jinping wants to talk to Zelensky with proposals for peace between Russia and Ukraine.

This seems a welcome development because this war must come to an end. My great fear is that Ukraine might capture Crimea nd expect to keep it however anything less than a "status quo ante bellum" peace would be utterly humiliating for Russia and imperil the government to the point that nuclear weapons may be used.

I am not ware of any end game to all this western support upon which the Ukraine depends. There should be some point at which the "west" tells the Ukraine to make peace and yet we have heard nothing.

I am growing increasingly suspicious of western, particularly American, motives in this war. I am growing increasingly suspicious that is being used as a proxy war to weaken Russia, there being considerable oil and gas and resources in Russia.

[Berzerker]

MAGA didn't shoot over a hundred cops and protesters. And if you agree it was an illegal coup why would that be irrelevant to the voters who elected the man they ousted? If MAGA was successful and Trump sent a Nazi army to attack a state for rejecting his coup, would you tell them to just accept it?

[Uncle Sparky]

I look forward to Putin's speech in Ki'ev tonight, celebration his obvious victory.

[BeBMan]

Russia condemned by UN as resolution calling for peace passes

The United Nations General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly to approve a resolution condemning Russia's invasion and calling for the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine and a halt to fighting.
The resolution was approved with 141 nations voting in favour, 32 abstaining and seven voting against - a similar outcome to previous resolutions on Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-64742349

Over 140 countries are cool with Satan


Dunno if posted already, but meanwhile China presented what it calls its peace plan, which rather seems to be a more generic listing of principles.

China calls for Ukraine peace talks as it steps up engagement in the conflict

A 12-point position paper released on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion has been greeted cautiously by Ukraine

Ukraine will like the refs to "territorial integrity", and the clear Chinese position against anything with nukes is a positive thing. Otoh China does nothing to directly call on Russia to stop, instead promotes a ceasefire and negotiations. Hard to see if there comes anything practical out of this, certainly not in the near term.