Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Proteus_MST]

The war started in 2014 when Obama sent a Nazi army to attack eastern Ukrainians for not supporting the coup.

I am sure that Serb will totally agree with this posting

[Berzerker]

The war started in 2014 when Obama sent a Nazi army to attack eastern Ukrainians for not supporting the coup.

[Ming]

How many people on both sides died before the war? How many have died since Russia started the War?
So much for protecting their countrymen...

[Berzerker]

Ukraine controls 5 or 6 dams upstream from that reservoir and it has been reported Ukraine was releasing more water from them raising the water level before the dam was blown up.

[Berzerker]

Russia did this to head off a counter offensive...? Why wouldn't they wait for the attack and let Ukraine take ground east of Kherson and then blow the dam? Why even bother building those defenses east of Kherson if the plan was to invite Ukrainian forces into the path of a flood? Does this mean the counter offensive is off?

[Berzerker]

page does not exist... just like the Ghost of Kiev and Heroes of Snake Island

[Berzerker]

They haven't been particularly bright this past year and a half, so you tell me.

Also, only one side has been callous with civilian lives so far. I'll let you guess which one.

As it is, Russia is doing no effort whatsoever to help civilians affected by the flood, while Ukraine is diverting drones it would otherwise be using for the war to supply people staranded (on the Russian-occupied side):

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512

Plus, it will be a while until the empty reservoir is traversable, and the river there isn't going to go anywhere, so it will still mean an opposed major river crossing for Ukraine.

And they blew up their own pipeline... Stop hitting yourself Marcia. I dont have to guess, Ukraine has been shelling civilians for nearly a decade. But thats so nice of them, sending drones to save people. I would expect them to send drones to attack Russian survivors. Russia will need to divert resources to provide that opposition along the river. I dont see the upside for Russia, they've been wanting Ukraine to attack their defenses so a flood wipes them out instead. A Russian general withdrew from Kherson a while back because the dam was a potential target and he knew that could trap his soldiers in the city. One analyst said evidence of surreptitious warning and movement of people might identify whodunit.

[pchang]

Mismanagement of high explosives.

[BeBMan]

Meanwhile Russia stopped a major Ukrainian attack spearheaded by Leopard tractors and harvesters

[EPW]

Probably the dam collapsed because of Russian mismanagement.

[-Jrabbit]

Wait, you mean the Russians aren't saving the lives of Ukrainian schoolchildren being threatened by the flood and subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive?
WHAT ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!

[N35t0r]

They haven't been particularly bright this past year and a half, so you tell me.

Also, only one side has been callous with civilian lives so far. I'll let you guess which one.

As it is, Russia is doing no effort whatsoever to help civilians affected by the flood, while Ukraine is diverting drones it would otherwise be using for the war to supply people staranded (on the Russian-occupied side):

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512

Plus, it will be a while until the empty reservoir is traversable, and the river there isn't going to go anywhere, so it will still mean an opposed major river crossing for Ukraine.

[Berzerker]

He ran down a list of reasons why the flooding hurts the Russians (and Crimea) and still concludes Russia blew up the dam to prevent a Ukrainian offensive targeting Russia's defenses that are now being flooded. The reservoir being drained was an obstacle that required little protection, the dam break destroys Russian defenses to the south and exposes weak or non-existent defenses to the north. Course it'll be muddy so I dont know how long it will take before it dries out. Why would Russia put all that effort into building defenses down river from the dam only to flood those defenses?

[Dinner]

A pretty good break down of details about the dam including the mines and explosives Russia had placed there during its retreat last year. I.S. claims it has evidence proving Russia is behind the destruction of the dam.

https://youtu.be/t-HLyoSD5lg

[Berzerker]

​​​​​​Do you know what 'voting' in Russian occupied Ukraine has been? Armed teams of Russian soldiers visit your home. There are no publicized rules for collection of the vote. Instead the soldiers may choose to verbally ask you your choice and write it down for you out of sight. Do you call that 'getting to vote for their freedom'? How are such elections in any way 'self determination'? How will self determination exist in any way for the Donbas residents after being annexed to Russia?


Why do you say Nuland chose the leader? The leaked phonecall?

Https://www.BBC.com/news/world-europe-26079957

Quote me the juicy bit that demonstrates that Nuland controlled the selection process or even held decisive influence.

Everything about the conversation sounds like someone on the outside of a process trying to influence it. It makes no sense as an individual in control of the process or representing someone in control of the process.

Why wouldn't you expect foreign governments to have preferences in the selection and to connive internally about what those preferences are? If the US lost patience with the EU and decided to push independent of the EU we'd expect just what we see. If the US was directing the selection this conversation would be totally unnecessary.

You maintain that Ukrainians were disenfranchised by US control. How could such control be exercised?

We know from Putin's 2014 top Ukraine advisor's public comments in a 06MAR2014 Kommersant.ua interview that Russia pushed the bizarre interpretation of the Budapest memorandum that it required the UK, Russia and the US to "intervene" in the event of a "coup" in Ukraine and that Viktor Yanukovych was justified in use of force and that Russia was justified and required to "intervene" in Ukraine. If the US controlled Ukraine, given these comments by Russia why wouldn't we expect Russia to simply take over control by whatever levers the US was exercising? It obviously wouldn't be self-restraint stopping them, in light of those comments.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26068994

The only interpretation that makes sense is that both powers moved to influence but that Ukrainians remained in control.

​​​​​​I thought you didn't like "analogies'? Now you bring up Iraq? I do think your fear of "analogies" obviously arises from the light they shed on your cognitive dissonance and double standards.

If the US in Iraq in 2003 was wrong then Russia in Ukraine 2014 and 2022 was wrong for nearly all of the same reasons.

People have been voting in these regions for decades, they voted for independence and joining Ukraine and elected the guy toppled in the coup. They voted for Minsk and to stay in Ukraine. Was that Putin's plan? Did the Soviets rig the votes for independence when their union broke up? No, I dont want Moscow or Kiev or Washington deciding their future.

What part of Nuland and Pyatt choosing the replacement and meeting with all 3 for confirmation qualifies as "outside" the process? How did we control Ukraine? Money and terror. Whoever was behind the coup, we embraced it. We armed and funded fine people and praised them or looked the other way. When the media wouldn't ignore Ukraine's Nazi problem Congress said no more weapons to Azov and the Pentagon ignored them while congressmen went to Ukraine to honor our freedom fighters.

Zelensky ran on ending the war and won with ~3/4 of the vote and I think that didn't even include millions of votes from eastern Ukrainians who couldn't because of the war. The voters were over-ruled by the Ukrainian right wing and the west. Your analogies dont make sense, you compared arming ISIS to arming North Vietnam (huh?) and when I questioned your logic you blamed my lack of imagination. Iraq is evidence the USA only cares about international rules when they serve the USA's purpose. Now you're comparing US-Iraq to Russia-Ukraine, but Iraq was not waging a proxy war along the US border killing ethnic Americans.