Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Bereta_Eder]

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[Bereta_Eder]

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[Bereta_Eder]

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[Bereta_Eder]

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[The Mad Monk]

Interesting take on Russia and "Dutch Disease".



No, it's not about tulips.

[Provost Harrison]

I really hope you're right about Russian attitudes. From anecdotal experiences it certainly looks like you're wrong but it's important to realize how narrow our slice of access to Russia is. I like to believe you *might* be right about them. That would be an amazing, pleasant surprise.

Everything is just a question of intensity. If Putin looks weak and his people are bleeding, it's not looking good for him. But they need to feel the pain at home, and especially in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[Geronimo]

Indeed. And wow have we seen some epic explosions from those oil refineries - and that's just from drone attacks. Those flamingos hitting must be a sight to behold.

surely, they weren't more impressive than that enormous Russian arms depot explosion about a year ago?

[Geronimo]

What we see of Russia is what we're allowed to see by Putin. And if people are generally content then dissent tends to be minimal. But everything points to the fact that material conditions for rank-and-file Russians are about to get a lot worse due to a multi-pronged strategy. Remember in these things it looks like nothing is happening...until it does.

I really hope you're right about Russian attitudes. From anecdotal experiences it certainly looks like you're wrong but it's important to realize how narrow our slice of access to Russia is. I like to believe you *might* be right about them. That would be an amazing, pleasant surprise.

[Provost Harrison]

Here's the thing, when attacks from Russia cause damage, it's there for the world to see, because Ukraine lets the world see it. When attacks from Ukraine cause damage, it's there for the world to see because Russian citizens keep recording and posting the videos despite Russia criminalizing it and denying that there's any kind of problem. It's that fear that the Russian government is showing that tells the story.

Indeed. And wow have we seen some epic explosions from those oil refineries - and that's just from drone attacks. Those flamingos hitting must be a sight to behold.

[The Mad Monk]

Here's the thing, when attacks from Russia cause damage, it's there for the world to see, because Ukraine lets the world see it. When attacks from Ukraine cause damage, it's there for the world to see because Russian citizens keep recording and posting the videos despite Russia criminalizing it and denying that there's any kind of problem. It's that fear that the Russian government is showing that tells the story.

[Provost Harrison]

I think all of your assessments of material problems are plausible although if the cause is just grid damage, then I think it would take far more than what Russia was able to inflict upon ukraine before similar attacks by ukraine on russia's grid could achieve all of that as a result. I just have been constantly surprised by the concrete evidence of serious devotion of the overwhelming majority of the Russian public to Putin's special military operation against Ukraine and it's led to me generally assuming that Putin won't have public support difficulties any time soon come what may. That said I think Ukraine has made few huge blunders. I suppose the announcement may just be intended to manipulate Russia somehow other than a probably totally failed effort to deter Russian attacks on the Ukrainian grid.

What we see of Russia is what we're allowed to see by Putin. And if people are generally content then dissent tends to be minimal. But everything points to the fact that material conditions for rank-and-file Russians are about to get a lot worse due to a multi-pronged strategy. Remember in these things it looks like nothing is happening...until it does.

[The Mad Monk]

If Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy could galvanize the Russian people against Ukraine, why is the Russian government doing its damnedest to deny that such strikes are being effective?

[Geronimo]

Putin's success is predicate on one thing - that the Russian people give blind obedience in exchange for never having to worry about material needs. And a whole lot of brainwashing and propaganda. What happens when his "de facto" social contract with his people breaks down because he's not able to provide the essentials of life. Their ability to refine oil has been dramatically reduced, and this is their lifeline to get funds. Also another thought on power. If there are significant problems with pumping crude oil through their pipelines in cold, Siberian conditions, what happens to said pipelines Geronimo? Also this war of attrition (where Russia only seems capable of lashing out rather than having a coherent strategy) is not working out well for them, the worst harvest for almost 20 years. If they can't export oil, what leverage do they have to obtain food from other exporters? No cash to buy it (let's face it, Putin's "war chest" was down to a 10th of its original size, to 30bn USD from starting at...what...250-300bn? That's excluding sequestrated assets, and that was a couple of months ago too.

So yeah, we need to pump up our support for Ukraine, let them finish the job. While your country behaves in its usual, unprincipled, opportunistic way.

I think all of your assessments of material problems are plausible although if the cause is just grid damage, then I think it would take far more than what Russia was able to inflict upon ukraine before similar attacks by ukraine on russia's grid could achieve all of that as a result. I just have been constantly surprised by the concrete evidence of serious devotion of the overwhelming majority of the Russian public to Putin's special military operation against Ukraine and it's led to me generally assuming that Putin won't have public support difficulties any time soon come what may. That said I think Ukraine has made few huge blunders. I suppose the announcement may just be intended to manipulate Russia somehow other than a probably totally failed effort to deter Russian attacks on the Ukrainian grid.

[Provost Harrison]

I think it would reduce support for Putin even less than "de-housing" of Germans in the third Reich reduced support for der Fuhrer.

Putin's success is predicate on one thing - that the Russian people give blind obedience in exchange for never having to worry about material needs. And a whole lot of brainwashing and propaganda. What happens when his "de facto" social contract with his people breaks down because he's not able to provide the essentials of life. Their ability to refine oil has been dramatically reduced, and this is their lifeline to get funds. Also another thought on power. If there are significant problems with pumping crude oil through their pipelines in cold, Siberian conditions, what happens to said pipelines Geronimo? Also this war of attrition (where Russia only seems capable of lashing out rather than having a coherent strategy) is not working out well for them, the worst harvest for almost 20 years. If they can't export oil, what leverage do they have to obtain food from other exporters? No cash to buy it (let's face it, Putin's "war chest" was down to a 10th of its original size, to 30bn USD from starting at...what...250-300bn? That's excluding sequestrated assets, and that was a couple of months ago too.

So yeah, we need to pump up our support for Ukraine, let them finish the job. While your country behaves in its usual, unprincipled, opportunistic way.

[Geronimo]

The one thing that happens in Russia this time of year is that it gets colder. A lot colder. And damaging infrastructure involved in heating and power creates materially uncomfortable conditions, and that's an understatement. So much so that it would be a massive step on the road to destabilising Putin's regime, and that is the true end goal here. There's no appeasement that will stop him, no concession that would placate him and so him coming back at a later date. The long term answer is regime change. And date I say it, this is a damn effective measure in achieving this.

I think it would reduce support for Putin even less than "de-housing" of Germans in the third Reich reduced support for der Fuhrer.