Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Provost Harrison]

I agree that the refinery strikes are disproportionately effective enough to merit use. I'm pessimistic about the merits of successful Ukrainian strikes on the Russian electricity grid. Perhaps if it were localized to areas where it will genuinely synergize with the refinery campaign such as where large power production is tightly coupled with a refinery site?

The one thing that happens in Russia this time of year is that it gets colder. A lot colder. And damaging infrastructure involved in heating and power creates materially uncomfortable conditions, and that's an understatement. So much so that it would be a massive step on the road to destabilising Putin's regime, and that is the true end goal here. There's no appeasement that will stop him, no concession that would placate him and so him coming back at a later date. The long term answer is regime change. And date I say it, this is a damn effective measure in achieving this.

[Geronimo]

Their economy is propped up by petrochemical exports. Without that revenue, everything else grinds to a standstill.

I agree that the refinery strikes are disproportionately effective enough to merit use. I'm pessimistic about the merits of successful Ukrainian strikes on the Russian electricity grid. Perhaps if it were localized to areas where it will genuinely synergize with the refinery campaign such as where large power production is tightly coupled with a refinery site (or to a military site of some kind)?

[Provost Harrison]

destroying the grid is usually inefficient for degrading military capabilities, even indirectly, because the electricity is largely reroutable and Russia will maintain supply to military needs by cutting off civilian consumption.

Their economy is propped up by petrochemical exports. Without that revenue, everything else grinds to a standstill.

[Geronimo]

destroying the grid is usually inefficient for degrading military capabilities, even indirectly, because the electricity is largely reroutable and Russia will maintain supply to military needs by cutting off civilian consumption.

[The Mad Monk]

Destroying their energy infrastructure is destroying their production capability. Also their revenue generation. Also reducing fuel available to the military at any given time. Sure, they can steal civilian fuel for military use, but they still have to move it from the production areas in the east to the front lines -- and that's harder to do without pipelines and pumping stations, or the electricity to keep them heated and running.

[BeBMan]

Deterring the Black Sea Fleet worked quite well.

[Geronimo]

Also, Russia has already been lauching most of its long range munitions deep into Ukraine, attacking civilians directly. How much worse do you think that can get?

I think if Russia could've made it worse (short of nukes) they would have. The real danger in "eye for an eye" to Ukraine is boxing them into having to do the same. degrading Russian military capability or production capability strategically is what matters. this announcement ties their hands and locks up assets thereby ceding some initiative to Russia and most importantly is extremely unlikely to constrain or deter Russia in any meaningful way. It is pointless and a mistake. The best Ukraine can hope for is that it was a minor mistake if the retaliation has some strategic and political impact but it will be retaliation dictated by Russia.

[The Mad Monk]

Also, Russia has already been lauching most of its long range munitions deep into Ukraine, attacking civilians directly. How much worse do you think that can get?

[The Mad Monk]

Both of Russia's major implosions (1917 and 1991) were caused primarily by domestic issues and not directly by military failures (though those military failures, or rather the funneling of the society's resources into those military failures, did contribute). Russia has been recruiting from backwater areas, while also diverting funds from those areas, to spare their power base in western Russia most of the deprivations of war; with the attacks on energy, they can no longer do that.

[Geronimo]

Interesting bird watching

I think Ukraine needs to keep their eye on the ball and not bother with "eye for an eye" whenever other uses of assets used or reserved for "eye for an eye" would degrade Russian military capabilities more efficiently. By announcing "eye for an eye" they make that politically more difficult domestically and potentially undermine foreign support for no real gain. Russia leadership and probably even the Russian population will *not* be deterred by "eye for an eye" so they might even be tempted to make *more* targeting of civilian infrastructure of dubious military value to ensure that Ukraine is politically compelled to do the same or look weak.

[BeBMan]

My plan for victory would include sending out David Hasselhoff and the Scorpions, chanting "Looking for Freeeeedom" and "Wind of Change" 24/7 along the Sov...uhh...Russian bordah. Then everybody can walk home happily without further bloodshed

[BlackCat]

Interesting bird watching

[Provost Harrison]

Hmm. Not a peep out of Serb for over two weeks now. Do you think he decided to turtle down once he realized that the Ukrainians weren't done yet?

Russian trolls only thrive when they have a gullible audience, and I'm afraid he got a little bit mauled the last time he tried his nonsense.

[BeBMan]

Maybe he's busy searching for the lost potato

https://www.eurasiareview.com/31052025-russias-putin-looks-to-belarus-to-dig-him-out-of-war-time-potato-shortage/

[The Mad Monk]

Hmm. Not a peep out of Serb for over two weeks now. Do you think he decided to turtle down once he realized that the Ukrainians weren't done yet?