Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

I didn't now that

[N35t0r]

With Lyman about to fall, will this be the first 'Russian' city captured by Ukraine? This cannot stand, Putin better do something about it.

[Proteus_MST]

With Lyman about to fall, will this be the first 'Russian' city captured by Ukraine? This cannot stand, Putin better do something about it.

For example nuking Lyman

[Bereta_Eder]

if people were wise they'd acknowledge that there were two ukraines. one that really wanted to go to europe and one that was very russophile and kinda meh about it maybe.

that's because in a totalitarian authrotitarian state led by poots standman those russophiles were king.

Now there were two possibilities that could happen without war.

1. acknowlegde that there are 2 ukraines and devide them amicably.
2. acknowledge there are 2 ukraines but the majority wants to go to europe and in a true democratic fashion respect all the rights of the minority and go to europe.

that if humanity was smart but it isn't.

now russia used those poor fs so that the regime stays in power and noone questions the poots. (my new favorite word)

the west is just the west it doesn't change I think.

in the end of the day it is about freedom and dream. and that go west (for the vast majority of ukranians)

[Bereta_Eder]

i mean the US and the UK have supported some abhorrent regimes and their social securities are attrocious.
but on the other hand you have russia.

you can always try and change a democracy through presuasion through activism etc in a dictatorship you can't change anything

[Bereta_Eder]

of course they fill the average russian's head with bull in order to keep stealing the state.
there are some russians that are like the women of iran fighting for freedom. the others are as boring as the average very poor country that dreams of grandiose things to forget its hunger.

those dreams are being pushed into the russian mind by the murderous kleptocrachy that runms russia. serb is probably a member.

they are nazis because they have betreayed their coutnry. they steal from it and their only aim is to klll their opponent and keep eating.

mother russia will condemn those hypocrits. where you hear patriot it means the one who has stolen the coffers dry.


it does have some surreal appeal though, what with deranged "thinkers" like dungin saying the one crazed seminazi theological bull theory after the other,

as long as the thives keep eating it's all good. keep filling the populace's heads with grandiose bullst.

and it's so freakish, they killed his daughter!!! what kind of dystopian hell is russia.

everyone who has a beef with the west and probably rightly so, has no reason to praise the poots. he diminishes himself and his cause

[Geronimo]

Except 1) you now see how riled up Serb is about it. Those pipelines were already stopped, and Russia was not going to restart them, so why not use them for something useful?
2) Gazprom can now claim force majeure as to why it is not fulfilling it's gas sale contracts.




It would be extremely dumb for them to do so, especially now. The lines were not pumping any gas, and if it ever comes out they performed terrorist attacks on NATO EEZ on partially NATO -owned infrastructure, they will lose what little trust they have left among the international community (there is a reason not much weight was put on the US' word that the Russians were about to invade Ukraine back in February).

Putin primarily would see distrust and division within NATO as the priceless payoff for the sabotage. I'm sure he views a falling out within NATO and its allies as his best route to victory.

[N35t0r]

Putin primarily would see distrust and division within NATO as the priceless payoff for the sabotage. I'm sure he views a falling out within NATO and its allies as his best route to victory.

I think that, for him, the internal messaging is the more important outcome, and any possible friction in the west merely a secondary bonus. But that's obviously just my opinion.

[The Mad Monk]

[Geronimo]

I am sincerely worried that an actor or group of actors other than Russia may have been stupid enough to sabotage Nordstrom. However, I don't see a motive really makes sense for anyone.

Maybe it would make sense for Russia if they were dogmatically committed to never exporting gas via the pipeline again, but why physically commit to that rather than stringing the recipients along with false hope and total Russian control? Maybe Russia would hope to frame the US to sow discord in NATO but how could they predict how that would play out? Maybe they could foment anti NATO sentiment among Russians but it will do nothing to alleviate Putin's primary domestic concern of perceived weakness or incompetence.

Maybe it could be the US but the timing is strange since the deed would have been least suspicious when Russia first shutdown Nordstrom 1 for maintenance. If the US did this unilaterally it would be incredibly stupid for NATO unity and give the US nothing immediately in return for the risk of discovery. So, I suspect if it wasn't Russia then perhaps the sabotage was endorsed collectively by NATO behind the scenes with those members such as Germany whose interests seem to be directly undemined by the sabotage signing on purely to defuse domestic opposition to maintaining the sanctions. Even that seems stupid as obviously Russia would know it had to be one of them and with Russia and all of NATO in on the "secret" how could they be confident that the secret wouldn't escape to the general public?

I guess the worst consequence of the Nordstrom sabotages seems to be that it means at least one major player or collection of players responsible for avoiding WW3 has added this additional stupidity to the collection of stupid acts we have witnessed from these players (especially Russia) since 24feb2022.

[Dauphin]

Cui bono.

The outcome of sabotage is to deny Russian gas to Northern Europe. Northern Europe may want to wean itself from Russian gas but to cut off any gas opportunities as you head into winter seems more an act of self harm than a benefit.

The benefit to Ukraine is Russia loses revenue income, but I don't think they'd have the capability to sabotage. And even if they did. they have better and more important targets.

The US may benefit, as it prevents Russians exporting gas, and makes Europe move away from Russian gas more quickly. Seems unlikely because if discovered the blowback would be ferocious. Given Europe is moving away from Russian dependency, the need to sabotage was low.

Russia benefits marginally - it can demonstrate a capacity to destroy infrastructure without consequence as it's hard to prove it was them. Also a good test case for them if they want to sabotage other at sea infrastructure - commuinication lines, other pipelines globally. This is a proof of concept test run as they ****stir everywhere as a rogue state. Combined this would send a message - we can do this and you can't respond because your hands are tied.

[Proteus_MST]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuÃcult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

[-Jrabbit]

Um, no. Not credible.

[N35t0r]

This is highly unlikely, the amount of water that would have to be inside the pipe to form ice is ridiculously high, and even then it's unlikely that the temperature inside the pipe would be below freezing (since in that case, it would mean the Baltic is frozen solid)

[Geronimo]

Thank you for that far more palatable explanation Proteus.

Four separate locations in such a small time frame seems like a stretch though.

[Uncle Sparky]

I blame moose and squirrel.

[Egbert]

As I wrote (and linked) AFAIK in another thread,
there may be a possiibility that it actually wasn't sabotage,but rather a maintenance accident.

The gas having been immobile in the pipeline for so long mayhave been led to the building up of blocking methan ice, which technicians of Gazprom might have wanted to remove.
Said removal, however, is a diffuÃcult task and can reesult in explosions.

So, maybedue to having a lack of experienced technicians (due to russians fleeing est or getting drafted) reulted in said maintenance going catastrophally wrong.
Of course, Putin would have condemned Gazprom to silence, for the propaganda reasons that were already mentioned, so that it might be spun in a way that makes the USA responsible (at least in the eyes of Putins own citizens)

That makes sense.