Wot no coronavirus thread? Part 2

[Kidlicious]

If lockdowns work then you would see spikes after 3 weeks of them being lifted fully or partially. Spikes way down the timeline aren't evidence that lockdowns work. When you look at states that partially lifted restrictions you don't see the spikes.

[Kidlicious]

Nope. Michigan for example. Lockdowns are not supported by the data.

[Ming]

No,,, the stats are based on reality. The states that opened up are all showing an uptick in their numbers, mostly because a lot of morons aren't wearing masks and going to super spreader events.

[Kidlicious]

The low on "real" sites is over 50%... the average is showing 60 to 70%. Some sites say 80% or more.
They claim the estimates vary because it's based on the how contagious it is, which for covid, is high.
But what they all say is, to get to herd immunity without a vaccine would lead to millions of deaths.

None of those estimates are based on data. The data shows that lockdowns don't work. Look at the states that keep harsh lockdowns. They don't help.

[pchang]

That's not backed up by data.

"The flu pandemic of 1918 is thought to have had an R0 ~2.9, corresponding to a herd immunity threshold (HIT) of about 66%. Again, most scientists consider that herd immunity for COVID-19 requires that 60% or more of the population being infected for an R0 of 2.5. However, in reality, the HIT in 1918 was probably closer to 33%, since only a third of the population of the world is actually thought to have been infected."

R0 must be calculated from initial spread of the disease in a given area and is highly correlated with population density. Even you should be able to figure out that population densities have increased since 1918.

[Ming]

The low on "real" sites is over 50%... the average is showing 60 to 70%. Some sites say 80% or more.
They claim the estimates vary because it's based on the how contagious it is, which for covid, is high.
But what they all say is, to get to herd immunity without a vaccine would lead to millions of deaths.

[Kidlicious]

Gee... most experts think that the minimum level is 70%...

That's not backed up by data.

"The flu pandemic of 1918 is thought to have had an R0 ~2.9, corresponding to a herd immunity threshold (HIT) of about 66%. Again, most scientists consider that herd immunity for COVID-19 requires that 60% or more of the population being infected for an R0 of 2.5. However, in reality, the HIT in 1918 was probably closer to 33%, since only a third of the population of the world is actually thought to have been infected."

[Ming]

Gee... most experts think that the minimum level is 70%...

[Uncle Sparky]

I'm shocked that Kidiot has had time to poast here. I would have thought he would be out spreading as much COVID as he could, or is he invulnerable like Trump?

It is nice to see Trump shaking as many hands and kissing as many babies as possible. Children cannot catch the disease, and Repugs all wish they could be infected by Trump. I hope he has time to shake every Repugs' hand in all the swing states. He should also go to the Senate, and hug all the Repugs there..

[Kidlicious]

Kidicious. You are arguing with everybody in every thread.

You even argue with me.

Although PWNing ***** is a commendable benefit to the community, you are showing excessive zeal for PWNing *****. You must show mercy to ***** .

[Kidlicious]

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201008/Study-estimates-lower-herd-immunity-to-SARS-CoV-2-in-the-US.aspx

[Kidlicious]

Maybe 20%

"In Manaus, Brazil, where the pandemic took a heavy toll, both hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 have dropped steeply, though the seroprevalence has never risen above 20%. This could mean that a low level of antibodies is compatible with herd immunity in some places.

Other investigators support the view that heterogeneity in contact networks and in the degree of transmission allows a much lower HIT than previously assumed. Shielding of highly connected nodes may lead to a rebound increase in infections following the relaxation of such restrictions, with the second wave being more significant than the first.

The investigators sum up: “We demonstrate that the proportion of the population infected to achieve herd immunity may be lower than usually assumed, which would have significant implications for public health.”

[Egbert]

Almost 3 weeks since restrictions have been lifted in Florida. I don't expect new cases to increase that much because they have partial herd immunity.

Kidicious. You are arguing with everybody in every thread.

You even argue with me.

Although PWNing ***** is a commendable benefit to the community, you are showing excessive zeal for PWNing *****. You must show mercy to ***** .

[Kidlicious]

Almost 3 weeks since restrictions have been lifted in Florida. I don't expect new cases to increase that much because they have partial herd immunity.

[Kidlicious]

In some places, sure it is. It depends on the population. Some places have dark immunity.