Trump's Death Cult Explained

[KrazyHorse]

Policy is most definitely the responsibility of academics in certain disciplines, and epidemiology is one of them. They lit a political fuse, they are responsible for the explosion.

**** them.

[Jon Miller]

Policy response is not the responsibility of the academics. I haven't seen any evidence that their models were wrong.

There should have been leadership and risk assessment, which was lacking.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

More importantly you missed that providing policy advice based on error bands that wide is ****ing insane.

This was academic malfeasance. Those responsible must be held responsible so they can never do this again.

[Jon Miller]

Oh, I missed that it was a 2 sigma error band.

JM

[ZEE]

If the US has 50k by May 1, that will be within the 1 sigma error band.

That suggests to me that 0.3% (And probably below) was within their error band.

JM

I disagree. the error band is 2 sigma and a .02% (And probably above) was outside the error band. This assumes fatality curves of 1.5%

Give or take.

[Jon Miller]

If the US has 50k by May 1, that will be within the 1 sigma error band.

That suggests to me that 0.3% (And probably below) was within their error band.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

If they knew they were going to be off by a factor of ten they shouldn't have made any predictions; they should have been banging on the table for data.

**** them.

[giblets]

Well, if they underestimated the death rate and it turned out to be worse than they predicted everyone would want their head on a stick.

[Berzerker]

how can the media complain about the stimulus without complaining about the Congressional Democrats responsible for it?

[Uncle Sparky]

Why aren't you out protesting in a large group? Go spread the plague! Make America die again!

[KrazyHorse]

Krazyhorse, noted epidemiologist everybody.

Yes, instead of reasoning things out for yourself, please place your faith in the "experts" who were blithely presenting fatality curves assuming a 3.5% fatality rate a month ago.

They don't know **** on this one. Their projections have been wrong, wrong, wrong, and their policy suggestions fail to reason beyond the next move.

[Elok]

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-trickle-up-bailout

Don't know enough to evaluate, but I've never known Taibbi to be a fool.

(I mentioned this in my last post so it's not a TOTAL tangent)

[Arrian]

EDIT: JUST REALIZED I SAID AESON, MEANT ARRIAN

Aeson, you're not forcing yourself to do even the roughest of math here.

1) Hospital capacity in most of the country is not even CLOSE to being overwhelmed. The lockdowns started far too early in these places to make a "bending the curve" argument be sensible. And in New York City & surrounding environs, close to 30% of the population HAS ALREADY BEEN INFECTED. We did nothing to bend the curve, and are now just delaying illnesses until the second wave in the fall. We should release the lockdown here NOW and get as many people infected as possible b/c hospital capacity utilization will be FAR below peak in 2 weeks when those newly infected might need it
2) without any intervening measures something like 50-60% of people will get it. In a demographically representative group that about 0.3% of those will die. Call it 500k people or so, with a median age of 75
3) you're not at all asking the question of how important to this death toll hospital capacity is - from what I can tell, the bulk of these deaths happen with or without hospitalization. Ventilation fails in 3/4 of cases
4) you're failing to account for the offsetting problem that the longer this is drawn out, the less able we are to attain differential infection rates between the young & old/vulnerable

Onan expected value basis,my guess is that nothing we've done can plausibly claim to have saved more than a few thousand lives (and possibly 0). Given that they were already elderly, that's a few tens of billion dollars' worth. Meanwhile, 22 million people have lost their jobs in 4 weeks and the rest of us have had to endure substantial restrictions on our freedom and our enjoyment of life. The costs outweigh the benefits

Let. It. Happen. Lockdowns are simply an ineffectual expression of people's fear and need to feel somehow in control. And they will end soon enough as the fear of the virus fades and the harsh economic pain sets in.

Krazyhorse, noted epidemiologist everybody.

[Arrian]

Trump seems to deliberately target and provoke the lefties and the woke crowd. Their reaction seems to play into his hands.

Hillary describing Trump supportets as deplorables ead good for Trump and bad for Hillary. It portrayed her as condescending and allowed Trump to frame himself ad opposing these arrogant lefties.

SOC attacking Trump is hood for Trump because he can frame her as a loony lefty and frame himself as protecting America from loony lefties.

I sm not libingbin America fk I may er be mistaken. That is my impression of Trump.

I think Trump speaks to the emotions of his listeners and gives careful though to what he says. I think there is a method to his madness.

You're partly right and partly wrong. Saying he carefully thinks **** through is laughably false, but the rest: that he's basically a RW internet troll triggerin' the libs and tickling the amydalas of wingers, is correct.

[Dauphin]

He may give thought to what he says - he’s pretty transparent and honest in saying what he thinks. I don’t think he gives thought to what will go down well - he gets guidance from Fox, or whomever, on what his base is thinking and gives a garbled version of it. When he has to respond on the fly he just turns to the same stock responses.