Wot no coronavirus thread? Thread broken - see new thread

[Ming]

Oh.. so in your book, you can call people who aren't communists commies, but somebody who pointed out that you have actually posted that you used to be one can't?

It seems like you are the one that can't "TAKE IT"

Again, actually attempt to discuss things, or take your crap to some site where they welcome it. Because this site doesn't

[Kidlicious]

No. I can take your nonsense. I prefer that you post something that makes sense, but that's different from banning people etc... You know that.

[Jon Miller]

Are you people still so deluded that you think we can contain this to any significant degree, or that IFRs are above 0.4%?

1) The skew of cases in New York looks like it was heavily concentrated in nursing homes, because of insanely bad management by both the administrators of those homes and local government
2) Likely herd immunity thresholds are substantially lower than 75% infections, both because of heterogeneous spread rates and because of cross immunity from other coronaviruses
3) Parts of the US have potentially reached herd imunity at this point, although we'll see when fall arrives
4) We will reach about 500k deaths in by the US by the end of this winter, at which point the virus will be endemic and with a lower fatality rate
5) No hospital system was ever overwhelmed by cases, not even with effectively uncontrolled spread. Reducing spread rates through some reasonably cheap measures (mask mandates) in hotspots like NYC at the peak was probably a good precautionary idea. Lockdowns, particularly in areas that hadn't yet gotten onto the virus upslope were a terrible idea that was costly and did nothing but delay
6) Any vaccine is likely to be of limited and rapidly decaying effectiveness
7) No region on earth will avoid this by any combination of behavioral or medical interventions.
8) I don't know what things are like where you live, but where I live people are very much ignoring social distancing guidelines. We've burned through people's goodwill, and further behavioral restrictions in response to the next wave will have to be very targeted in order to get any real compliance

As pchang has predicted, and now given evidence for, treatments and improved information are available now that were not available in March and April. So the Infection Fataility Rate is much less now than it was in March and April. Additionally, it is likely that a New York style or Italy style lockdown, while reducing the number of cases, actually increased the IFR.

Locking down in the future will probably not be an Italy style lockdown but more of a Bay Area lockdown. And, as you said, may not happen due to political will.

I personally think a lock down (Bay Area style) right now would be great, because then children could return to school (physically) early in October (even late in September). This is probably the most important thing for the economy and for people.

I do not understand why you make incompatible claims. You make the claim of reaching herd immunity at the same time as claiming that a vaccine is likely to be of limited and rapidly decaying effectiveness. My understanding is that we (as in everywhere in the world basically) is nowhere near reaching herd immunity, rather that many places (including in the US) might have some resistance built up due to certain subgroups of people facing similar viruses in the past or getting light infections which do not give immunity.

Resistance is important because it makes it less likely that people get infected and decrease the IFR for populations with resistance. Covid in a world where there is a significant population with resistance just becomes another flu (which is important, but we deal with).

A lot of countries seem to be doing pretty well due to behavior interventions. Medical interventions seem promising. I understand that we are not out of the woods yet, but I think it is likely that some countries will be minimally impacted by the time we are out of the woods.

Personally I think we are going to change to wear masks in flu season like in Asia.

JM

[Ming]

Discuss the topic... it's that simple.
And lets get this thread back on topic
If you want to continue this discussion, take it up via message, because this is just mucking up the thread

Remember Discussion... calling anybody that disagrees with you commies, or just saying fake news, or other such nonsense is just BS
If you disagree, than post why, provide some facts, argue the facts, actually debate... That's all I'm asking. And if you can't do that.......................

[Kidlicious]

They have herd immunity in a slum in India, Mumbai I think.

[-Jrabbit]

n/m, Kid shockingly provided a link later.

[Kidlicious]

Discuss the topic... it's that simple.
And lets get this thread back on topic
If you want to continue this discussion, take it up via message, because this is just mucking up the thread

Remember Discussion... calling anybody that disagrees with you commies, or just saying fake news, or other such nonsense is just BS
If you disagree, than post why, provide some facts, argue the facts, actually debate... That's all I'm asking. And if you can't do that.......................

I called him a commie because he opposes economic freedom and other freedom. I did not call him that because he disagreed with me so why don't you stop lying.

[Kidlicious]

It's hyperbole dude. Relax

You expect people to give up their freedom and well-being for the collective good. Atleast admit that.

[-Jrabbit]

Ah, the "it was a joke" defense. Followed immediately by repeating your deliberately flawed interpretation of what I actually said.
Just like Big Daddy Trump taught you.

[Kidlicious]

Noooooooooooo. Nooooooooooo

[Ming]

I called him a commie because he opposes economic freedom and other freedom. I did not call him that because he disagreed with me so why don't you stop lying.

He didn't say he opposes economic freedom and other freedom. That's just you putting words in his mouth. And again, take this up via message, because I will start deleting future posts about this.
This thread is about the virus

[Kidlicious]

6/10 people have anti-bodies in Indian slums.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/herd-immunity-seems-to-be-developing-in-mumbai-s-poorest-areas

[Jon Miller]

I stand corrected.

JM

[Ming]

I stand corrected.

JM

Somebody admitted that they misspoke on the internet

[KrazyHorse]

As pchang has predicted, and now given evidence for, treatments and improved information are available now that were not available in March and April. So the Infection Fataility Rate is much less now than it was in March and April. Additionally, it is likely that a New York style or Italy style lockdown, while reducing the number of cases, actually increased the IFR.

This is simply untrue, though it is a lie ill be happy to live with if it presents enough of a paean to allow us to begin undoing the harm we've done. The only shift since March and April is that the demographics of who's being infected has shifted from more elderly than the population to less. There is little if any evidence to suggest that we've made any progress in treatment.

I do not understand why you make incompatible claims. You make the claim of reaching herd immunity at the same time as claiming that a vaccine is likely to be of limited and rapidly decaying effectiveness. My understanding is that we (as in everywhere in the world basically) is nowhere near reaching herd immunity, rather that many places (including in the US) might have some resistance built up due to certain subgroups of people facing similar viruses in the past or getting light infections which do not give immunity.

Herd immunity will be enough to protect against massive outbreaks of the kind we've seen (the kind where the caseload goes exponential). Instead, people will be reinfected over and over again, with fatality rates dropping as the susceptible die and our immune systems adapt to make further infections less severe. Vaccines will provide partial artificial herd immunity of this form for only a limited time, and will only put off the most severe first infection in those people.

A lot of countries seem to be doing pretty well due to behavior interventions. Medical interventions seem promising. I understand that we are not out of the woods yet, but I think it is likely that some countries will be minimally impacted by the time we are out of the woods.

There is no such thing as "out of the woods". This is a highly infectious virus similar to a number of other viruses which are and will continue to be endemic seasonal illnesses. Those in hotter, more humid climates will be hit less hard. The only thing we've done is slow the reckoning at enormous cost (trillions of dollars so far).

[pchang]

New Zealand is calling.

[Jon Miller]

I entirely agree that the recent policies have been a costly and unnecessary disaster. They could have been entirely inverted by a little extra money the last 4 years and a competent administration. Even now, probably 1.5 trillion of stimulus and 100 billion to rush a deployment of treatments would be more effective than 3.5 trillion of stimulus.

And all of the stimulus and pain outside of the stimulus, and most of the deaths, could have been averted with a couple of billion more per year and a competent administration.

It is entirely likely that nothing can really happen positively until the current administration is replaced with a competent one.

JM

[Jon Miller]

There is no such thing as "out of the woods". This is a highly infectious virus similar to a number of other viruses which are and will continue to be endemic seasonal illnesses. Those in hotter, more humid climates will be hit less hard. The only thing we've done is slow the reckoning at enormous cost (trillions of dollars so far).

Out of the woods means that we will not see any more deaths due to Covid (real, not just officially attributed) then ~20k per year.

I think we will reach there.

JM

[Kidlicious]

I entirely agree that the recent policies have been a costly and unnecessary disaster. They could have been entirely inverted by a little extra money the last 4 years and a competent administration. Even now, probably 1.5 trillion of stimulus and 100 billion to rush a deployment of treatments would be more effective than 3.5 trillion of stimulus.

And all of the stimulus and pain outside of the stimulus, and most of the deaths, could have been averted with a couple of billion more per year and a competent administration.

It is entirely likely that nothing can really happen positively until the current administration is replaced with a competent one.

JM

Trump hired Scott Atlas, Stanford University Medical Center, that shares your beliefs.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/03/scott-atlas-coronavirus-cases-sandra-smith/

Do you think Fauci is the wrong person to be leading the effort?

[Ming]

Atlas is just another Trump Yes man... Fauci would be much better