Of fans and feces

[Elok]

There is some scaryness going on right now, particularly where the Middle East is concerned. Part of this is just weird rumors--there's something trending on FB about some Iranian lout bragging that the country was sending Revolutionary Guards to infiltrate the US and Europe. A little digging reveals that the story only appears on Fox News and various wackjob sites of no good repute. So I'm going to assume that's BS until such time as someone trustworthy repeats it.

But then there's crap like this. It seems fairly well sourced; Erdogan, aside from being a despot, is now feeling a little case of the roaming hands. He doesn't want much, just Mosul, hunks of Greece, etc., but that's really more than he can afford to be wanting in the current climate.

And then there's our tiresome streak of brinksmanship with Russia, our backing of the war in Yemen, etc. Gentlemen, your thoughts on the future of stuff getting blown up in the Middle East. How much is going to get blown up, by who, and when? In any particular order?

[Elok]

We are, tragically, allied with Turkey, and under the impression that we need them to continue refragmenting the pile of rubble that used to be Syria with fresh layers of explosives. Turkey is aware of this, and apparently feeling quite smug about it. Meanwhile, Putin is buddies with Assad, and having posed as the Papa Bear of the Orthodox faithful could hardly afford to ignore any aggressive behavior towards Greece. This kind of has "disaster" written on it, don't you think? Anybody else reading "disaster" here?

[Aeson]

I'm not sure it's more/less of a disaster than has been par for the course the last 70 or so years.

I highly doubt NATO would back Turkey in any offensive context. NATO is only an offensive alliance if the US wants it to be. It may not even be a defensive alliance when it comes to Turkey. So if they're going to fill in their map, it would likely be against the world. That wouldn't last long.

[Bereta_Eder]

Well the US is going to sell Turkeu F-35.
Around 117 of them.

This makes us a big angry because we're broke and we're going to have to follow on that order.

Erdogan is on a rampage saying how "turkey's heart borders include the greek islands and thesalloniki"

It's nice to be sentimental.

We replied that our "heart borders" reach india but then there are real borders that everyone should respect them.


cozzying up with russia completely was never an enthralling idea.

[Bereta_Eder]

(we were going to buy the F-35s no matter what btw)

[Bereta_Eder]

That's the thing with dictatorships.
You never know how they think.

It would have to be someone crazy to start a war.

By definition that would last around 30 days and would result in turkey's both naval and air forces (untill it gets the F-35s) to go down in flames.

By the end of the 30 days window, pretty much all of both countries high tech military resources would have been spent.

then we will throw rocks at each other

of course I predict at least 5 countries comming to immideate help of greece, from all around turkey's borders and a very well known sizeable to the tune of 20 million people, rising from within turkey itself against it


that will also spell the end of NATO, the invasion of the baltics etc etc etc

[Bereta_Eder]

in any case I have the song ready

Πότε θα κάμει ξαστεριά,
When will the dawnbreak come
πότε θα φλεβαρίσει,
When will it become february

να πάρω το ντουφέκι μου,
to take my rifle
την έμορφη πατρόνα,
and the beautiful maid

να κατεβώ στον Ομαλό,
to walk down to omalo
στη στράτα του Μουσούρου,
on the road of mousourou

να κάμω μάνες δίχως γιους,
to make mothers without sons
γυναίκες δίχως άντρες,
women without men

να κάμω και μωρά παιδιά,
to make baby children
να κλαιν' δίχως μανάδες,
cry without mothers

να κλαιν' τη νύχτα για νερό,
crying at night for water
και την αυγή για γάλα,
and at dawn for milk

και τ' αποδιαφωτίσματα
and at first light of dawn
τη δόλια τους τη μάνα...
for their poor mothers

[Sir Og]

Isn't F35 an expensive worthless pos plane? I was under the impression that it's only purpose is to redistribute government money.

[Elok]

That is the scuttlebutt, yes. I'm not a military wonk, so I don't know the details. The Wiki page lists a lot of horrible-sounding flaws from fairly recent Pentagon reports, e.g. "it can catch on fire rather easily," "two of the three models need to use up most of their fuel to accelerate to top speed." But these are mingled with complicated explanations that the TCLEF isn't a critical flaw in JXL situations provided WEIL protocols are observed in the EIPTJN . . . who the hell knows? They've certainly been prepping this thing for a long time. Let's just say there've been significant issues.

[Ming]

There have been WAY too many issues... beyond the simply over budget behind schedule. And let's not even begin to talk about the helmet the pilots need to fly the jet.
The whole program has been a joke from the start, and only continues to get worse.

[Jon Miller]

I talked to an F16 pilot earlier this year. He did not want to upgrade to the F35, he thought that continued improvements of the F16 was best.

JM

[Bereta_Eder]

That is a decision of the military headquarters really. Although they shouldn't be left unchecked because I have long thought there was some sort of military symbiosis with the turkish side.

Anyway, strategically speaking, erdogan wants really really bad to be included in mosul. the "west" doesn't grant him that right (up to now at least) and he basically says "I'm going to cause problems to your pal"

Remember for turkey, greece is completely western and allied with all the western powers.

Turkey is probably going to break up in 4 pieces before the end of this century anyway

[Elok]

It's somehow even worse if we're the arms dealers of the world, and now we can't even sell everybody guns that work properly.

[Bereta_Eder]

Germany had an equal problem with its subs, couldn't even float straight (well one of its subs, the aegean is full of greek subs), assuming the f-35 problems are really not overhyped.

[Bereta_Eder]

You also have to see this through an historical perspective.

Erdogan talks a lot of talk but when it comes to action he doesn't even come close to the former military regime of turkey.

Greece's last humungous military equipment program came when turkey with deeds tried to question the status quo of the aegean (1996) if i'm not mistaken.

Now if erdogan talks big, that's his right, but his country has seen so many purges there is, honestly, no good F-16 pilots (or anyone else for that matter country wide) left to pose any real challenge.

Of course, it would be better if he didn't say the things he does but girls will be girls

Oh yeah. And he's trying to present himself as the new ataturk of turkey. He tries to discredit what ataturk came up with.