New recession in the US?

[Jon Miller]

I have been hearing more stories of people in property related distress. Foreclosures, people wanting to sell their houses quickly/rapidly and so on. And at the same time I am hearing good jobs numbers from the news. I am suspicious that these will be illusionary.

A new recession is about the only thing I could imagine giving the Republicans the white house.

Any observations from others?

JM

[PLATO]

Recent statistics from the Mortgage Banker's Association state that foreclosure rates are now back to pre 2008 levels. Serious delinquency is at the lowest level since 2005. Average time from list to contract on sales of homes is at lowest level since 2008. Predictions for next year are for a healthy increase in purchase volume (although overall mortgage volume will be down due to refinances drying up because of higher rates anticipated next year).

There may be some localized areas of distress, but the broad picture on foreclosures, short sales, and quick sales seem to be returning to what is considered a "normal" level.

The two biggest issues facing the Mortgage Industry continue to be access to credit and regulatory uncertainty and risk.

If a recession is coming, IT'S NOT MY FAULT THIS TIME!

[Dinner]

If you look at mergers the last time we had this many companies merging was 2007. When the over all market is flat it is hard for companies is to show growth thus they try to buy out the competition and get growth that way. When markets are growing fast you seldom see big mergers like the ones we have seen all year.

This basically is telling me we are nearing the end of a growth cycle especially with both China and Europe in trouble. Sadly, this is the time the Fed has picked to finally raise interest rates and I think they are going to find that is a mistake.

[Dinner]

If you look at mergers the last time we had this many companies merging was 2007. When the over all market is flat it is hard for companies is to show growth thus they try to buy out the competition and get growth that way. When markets are growing fast you seldom see big mergers like the ones we have seen all year.

This basically is telling me we are nearing the end of a growth cycle especially with both China and Europe in trouble. Sadly, this is the time the Fed has picked to finally raise interest rates and I think they are going to find that is a mistake.

[Sava]

the overeducated, underemployed adults of chicago still have plenty of disposable income

[The Mad Monk]

Recent statistics from the Mortgage Banker's Association state that foreclosure rates are now back to pre 2008 levels. Serious delinquency is at the lowest level since 2005. Average time from list to contract on sales of homes is at lowest level since 2008. Predictions for next year are for a healthy increase in purchase volume (although overall mortgage volume will be down due to refinances drying up because of higher rates anticipated next year).

There may be some localized areas of distress, but the broad picture on foreclosures, short sales, and quick sales seem to be returning to what is considered a "normal" level.

The two biggest issues facing the Mortgage Industry continue to be access to credit and regulatory uncertainty and risk.

If a recession is coming, IT'S NOT MY FAULT THIS TIME!

Waddayamean, this time?

[PLATO]

Waddayamean, this time?

Haven't you heard? Us Mortgage folks wrecked the world economy back in 2008.

[PLATO]

Sadly, this is the time the Fed has picked to finally raise interest rates and I think they are going to find that is a mistake.

I disagree actually...Most of the rate increase has already been priced into most markets. I think a rate increase may hurt stocks, but I don't see it being any kind of drag on the economy...and lets face it...going from 0 to .25 is hardly a disaster.

[The Mad Monk]

Haven't you heard? Us Mortgage folks wrecked the world economy back in 2008.

Actually, I missed that you are in the evil bankster banking industry.

[Kidlicious]

Some problem with the price of oil, but I doubt it will cause a serious recession.