[civil] Brexit - how likely is it for UK to leave the EU

[korn469]

I saw this article today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/opinion/why-a-brexit-looms-large.html?_r=0

It claims that both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party are either Euroskeptics or ambivalent to staying in the EU, while the Liberal Democrats, which remain pro EU lost big in the last election. It also states that Europe is distracted and will probably not make the concession needed to keep the UK in the EU. So do you agree or disagree with this article? How likely do you think a Brexit is and how would it change the EU?

[NICE MOBIUS]

Increasingly!

[rah]

I think it should be UKexit

[NICE MOBIUS]

If we exit the EU, it will likely kickstart the break up of the Union as well, if that's what you mean, rah...

[C0ckney]

too early to say, but it's certainly a real possibility.

[kentonio]

I think still practically no chance. The government would fight tooth and nail against it (ironically), most of the Labour party would be totally against it, and pretty much all the Lib Dems. They've just been using it as an excuse for so long, that they're now having to find ways to reverse their own damage. They'll pull it off, its too important to **** up.

[Dinner]

It depends on two issues. If the EU is willing to give them the exemptions they want and if the political parties are series instead of just wrangling for concessions. Financially the UK doesn't really have much to gain or lose unless the EU insists on pushing for taxes on the Fina cial sector it which case exit becomes a lot more attractive from an economic standpoint. If they get an automatic opt out then there is no reason to go.

[kentonio]

Financially the UK doesn't really have much to gain or lose unless the EU insists on pushing for taxes on the Fina cial sector it which case exit becomes a lot more attractive from an economic standpoint.

Err what? We'd lose a vast amount of money by leaving the EU, which is why a large majority of politicians and serious people in general are dead set against it.

[kentonio]

The Guardian has a recent study showing it as 14% of GDP or £215 billion.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...s-german-study

[C0ckney]

I think still practically no chance. The government would fight tooth and nail against it (ironically), most of the Labour party would be totally against it, and pretty much all the Lib Dems. They've just been using it as an excuse for so long, that they're now having to find ways to reverse their own damage. They'll pull it off, its too important to **** up.

possibly, i think a lot depends on how the tory party reacts, which will depend on cameron's negotiation with europe. considering what a terrible negotiator he is, i can't see that going well. cameron has promised to campaign based on the outcome of the negotiations, although i think he will back a yes come what may. if, however, he returns from europe pretty much empty handed he have a divided party on his hands and will have to make a choice between party unity and really pushing the yes vote. he may well choose to back a middle course.

likewise, corbyn is pretty ambivalent about the EU and won't be willing to go very far to defend britain's membership. the right of the labour party are very pro-EU and will likely try to make this a wedge issue within the party, so corbyn may be pressed to do something. he may well choose to back a middle course.

it's wholly possible that the yes side will have the two main party leaders giving it only lukewarm support and allowing others in their parties to campaign as they wish.

[kentonio]

possibly, i think a lot depends on how the tory party reacts, which will depend on cameron's negotiation with europe. considering what a terrible negotiator he is, i can't see that going well. cameron has promised to campaign based on the outcome of the negotiations, although i think he will back a yes come what may. if, however, he returns from europe pretty much empty handed he have a divided party on his hands and will have to make a choice between party unity and really pushing the yes vote. he may well choose to back a middle course.

The thing is though, business will come out completely against it, and pissing off business is something the Tory party simply cannot do.

likewise, corbyn is pretty ambivalent about the EU and won't be willing to go very far to defend britain's membership. the right of the labour party are very pro-EU and will likely try to make this a wedge issue within the party, so corbyn may be pressed to do something. he may well choose to back a middle course.

What middle course? I don't see any way he isn't forced to take a side, unless he just sits on the fence, in which case the big voices in the party are going to come out in favour of staying in regardless.

it's wholly possible that the yes side will have the two main party leaders giving it only lukewarm support and allowing others in their parties to campaign as they wish.

I think you're underestimating quite how devastating an exist would be, not just to the economy but to the millions of British people living in other EU countries. In the face of a massive economic hit, having supported the exit side could mean career ruin.

[NICE MOBIUS]

There was a poll somewhere about how the No EU side was actually greater among public opinion for the first time just recently. That and the fact that event in the EU aren't exactly helping matters, not to mention a public that has been expertly herded by the politics of fear in recent decades...

Let's just say that there'll need to be some kind of proper joined up pan-European plan in place to deal with the refugee crisis - or else our gullible and easily led public may very well end up pressing the 'STUPID' button and ejecting us from the EU...

[NICE MOBIUS]

Here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10488565.html

The Mail has linked the shock result to the migrant crisis and a change in the referendum question, which is supposed to make it more neutral.


More than a fifth of those who favoured staying in the EU said they might change their minds if the migrant crisis worsened.

Cameron won't be remembered for ****ing a dead pig if this goes tits up...

[NICE MOBIUS]

Also this:

Small business poll shows UK divide over EU referendum

So basically if we leave the EU, it will be because of the English. Clearly we haven't left 'Little Englander Syndrome' behind after all these years...

And if we leave the EU, I can imagine it precipitating the break up of the UK too.

[Dauphin]

In bizarro land I can see the SNP campaign south of the border for leaving the EU so they can then demand to leave the UK because Scots didn't vote for it.

And to solve the migrant problem for the EU, and "overcrowding", I suggest a one-in, one-and-a-bit-out policy. For every refugee accepted the EU country accepting them gets to export one to two benefit scroungers^TM or other undesirable to Syria or other such country.