The ongoing ISIS massacres

[Al B. Sure!]

This situation demonstrates that war isn't necessarily binary with enemy and friendly. Three-sided wars do exist in modern history, such as the Sino-Japanese War, Spanish Civil War, and Algerian War.

[DinoDoc]

This situation demonstrates that war isn't necessarily binary with enemy and friendly. Three-sided wars do exist in modern history, such as the Sino-Japanese War, Spanish Civil War, and Algerian War.

I thought it demonstrated the folly of the US engaging in a half-hearted air-only campaign.

[Elok]

Well, I don't like ISIS, but I also don't like Assad, or Turkey. If there's an outcome that involves all three losing somehow, and the Kurds pulling through, I'd be for that. Sadly, I expect at least one of the three has to "win" in some sense. Who's the smart money on at present?

[kentonio]

Turkey of course. ISIS will get mangled and then resort to a long drawn out insurgency, Assad will probably end up falling, but Turkey will still be standing at the end of it like they always are.

[Bereta_Eder]

Well, Turkey will not get partitioned (in the foreseable future) but it's not really winning anymore.
It was winning indeed when Erdogan managed to break up the vicious circle of islamist gov/military coup/military regime/elections/islamist gov etc etc.
That was a very big win for Erdogan and something that hasn't been done since Ataturk christened (maybe that's the wrong word) the military of all things as the paramount guardian of secularism in Turkey.
It was also winning since Erdogan managed to turn Turkey's economy around quite admirably (for Turkey's standards).
And there was a noticable detente in Greek/Turkish air dogfighting platitudes.
However, things have changed.
Erdogan got too tied up with the pleasures of power. Turkey is now, according to some reports, the country with the most jailed journalists in the world, internal divisions are high, it is at odds with a significant ally of hers (US mainly) and then there's the kurds.
But it will pull through, surely.

What has really changed is the kurdish question. Kurds have a semi-autonomous country for the first time.
Turkey's inability to fight the PKK (besides some humble contributions to it from abroad) was mainly due to its fighters escaping and regrouping in Syria and Iraq. The new kurdish state could well have been a weak armenia, incapable of doing any real damage if not for the 20 millions of kurds - 12 in Turkey(one of the largest populations without a nation incidently) that will be eagerly waiting for good will gestures from Turkey, that they will not be getting.
As for ISIS it could well stabilize into a territorially defined entity and of course a world wide pariah, or it could be decimated.

[Elok]

I didn't mean the end of Turkey as a nation--bit much to hope for, and they don't deserve that. Losing territory to a large independent Kurdistan is probably also a pipe dream. But seeing their crypto-theocrat regime humbled in some way would be nice, especially if it somehow leads them to stop sitting on the Ecumenical Patriarch.

[Bereta_Eder]

Well one thing that I admit buffles me is their insistance on the Patriarch being a Turkish citizen in order to get the job.
But I don't think military Turkey or Islamist Turkey will make much of a difference on that one. I think it is part of a Treaty that was signed after a crushing defeat of Greece but I may be wrong.
Erdogan's stance on religious matters was very promising at first (opening up the Great Generational School, a big school, if only by symbolism of Greeks in Constantinople, opening up Greek schools in the islands of Imvros and Tenedos, again a symbolic move but an exceptional one) and the last few years he has become rather erratic, for example proclaiming that the Agia Sophia will be turned into a mosque, while at the same time inviting Greeks (and other christians I'm sure) to come and settle in the City).

Generally, the longer Erdogan stays in power (nomatter the actual post) the more erratic he becomes.

Btw many people in Turkey also have a problem with his theocracy and they're muslims. The secular state has indeed taken a beating. It's not that Turkey during the military status quo was more free as a whole, it is that now, liberties are taken away from everyday citizens, not just those who posed problems for the state. And especially the more "westernized" citizens of Turkey, in the Asia Minor seaside do not like that at all.

But on religious matters (and I'm in noooo way an expert) I think Erdogan was much more lenient than its predessesors (or I might be confusing this with the general betterment of Greek Turkish relations during his reign).

[C0ckney]

Well, I don't like ISIS, but I also don't like Assad, or Turkey. If there's an outcome that involves all three losing somehow, and the Kurds pulling through, I'd be for that. Sadly, I expect at least one of the three has to "win" in some sense. Who's the smart money on at present?

it rather depends on what you mean by win and it's by no means impossible that all three will be standing when the dust settles (though i suspect not).

anyway, it's probably worth saying a few words about the general situation here to add to pakitis' informative posts. the PKK realised a long time ago that they couldn't beat the turkish state through violence; though that is not to say they've renounced it completely. instead they opted for non-cooperation and non-engagement with the turkish state; a programme of building democratic structures, based on municipalism, to challenge it and, little by little, make it irrelevant. it's a slow process, but it has claimed some successes, especially in areas like education and culture.

this is also why turkey, correctly, views them, and their syrian counterparts, as a threat; a bigger, though very different one from ISIS. obviously a long campaign to make dismantle the turkish state in kurdish areas is a big problem for turkey, and one that's quite tough to respond to. it's easy to justify repression, both at home and abroad, when bombs are going off and soldiers being killed; much harder to do the same when kurdish parents are boycotting turkish state schools and setting up their own ones to give kurdish language education. although the turkish state does still have many means at its disposal to stop, or at least impede, such initiatives, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see how they regard an area over the border where the PKK affiliated YPG and local governments can carry out the municipalist experiments for the kind of things they want to see realised in turkey.

turkey's approach has also changed and there's quite a lot to say about it, but to avoid an excessively long post, i'll just say that turkey has been somewhat more conciliatory towards its kurdish population in recent years.

there's also the matter of the kurdish state in northern iraq. it's a mistake to see the kurds in iraq, syria and turkey as one entity. there is no shortage of friction between the kurdish government in northern iraq and the PKK (and its syrian offshoot), although this hasn't precluded some cooperation. the turkish government and iraqi kurds maintain good relations.

[Nikolai]

Turkey will end up on top, and gain a great power status in the ME, that I'm quite sure of. They have shown an aptitude at gaining influence for a long time.

[Bereta_Eder]

That's really interesting Cockney.
Municipality schools and self organization... I didn't know about that at all but I think it does "hit" in the heart of the matter since the very reason the PKK was born or the kurdish movement was born as a whole, was indeed the (initial) full ban on the use of the kurdish language.

[Bereta_Eder]

Although I suppose violent uprisings will not cease.

A small taste of the turkish border couple of days ago

noone got killed btw.

The song, I'll bet, is a revolutionary one.

[C0ckney]

dp

[C0ckney]

That's really interesting Cockney.
Municipality schools and self organization... I didn't know about that at all but I think it does "hit" in the heart of the matter since the very reason the PKK was born or the kurdish movement was born as a whole, was indeed the (initial) full ban on the use of the kurdish language.

i've been following the situation there for some time. it's surprising (or perhaps not...) that it doesn't get more attention from the western media. luckily these days there are quite a few good sources about kurdish issues in english; blogs and so on.

[Bereta_Eder]

On a lighter note, barber shops have massive influx of business in some parts of Turkey

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29620018

[Colonâ„¢]

The anti-IS operation has been named Inherent Resolve. I can forego witty comments on this.