Originally posted by Lancer
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A critical political mistake was the simple shortsightedness of the original core CSA states - they had huge opportunities to stockpile modern arms before the yankee imperialist aggression, but didn't believe there would be a real fight - it was positively delusional. The whole "King Cotton" mindset blew up in their face, and then you had things like Stonewall Jackson proposing to equip regiments with pikes due to a shortage of muskets. Or the fact that Jackson was killed by a regiment armed, two plus years into the war, with smoothbores that had about 40% of the reload speed of Minié ball muskets like the .577 Enfield. Artillery shortages were also acute, especially rifled artillery other than the 3" Ordnance Rifle for effective counter-battery fire. The Brit Army rejected the Whitworth Rifle and bunches of those could have been had for a song, a dance and a bale of Cotton. Those would have been an artillerist's wet dream (and an enemy artillerist's ticket to meet his maker.
Later on, with everything playing out the way it did, the south still could have won politically - especially by freeing the slaves and removing the moral high ground at the right time. After Vicksburg and Gettysburg, you had the original "War will be over by Christmas!" delusion, and when that didn't happen, civilian enthusiam plummeted. Fast forward to 1864 and Grant's campaign. Grant was effective, but he was a callous bastard with not much tactical sense. All the subtlety of a berzerker coming at you with a club, but he realized he could sustain the casualties and materiel loss pretty much indefinitely, and the CSA couldn't. After the Wilderness, Spotsylvania, etc., although Grant was winning, the sheer magnitude of the casualties reported in the news vaporized yankee enthusiasm for the war. If Johnston had been allowed to maintain a delaying action on the retreat into Georgia, it is entirely possible that McClellan would have won, simply by a lack of good war news - people were getting sick of it, with no clear, visible end in sight. God knows McClellan didn't have the guts to prosecute any offensive action.
Oh and the western states could have made it quite nicely. All that distance, no railroad yet, and all that gold and later silver. Plus no slaves and no possibility of blockade.
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