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So Gallup and Rassmussen: Can we now admit they are out to lunch?

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  • So Gallup and Rassmussen: Can we now admit they are out to lunch?

    Like I said?
    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

  • #2
    Yes, and can we admit that the Democratic advantage in party identification from 2008 was largely preserved?

    Or did the exit polls and the election also "oversample Democrats"?

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    • #3
      "I don't understand what went wrong! We called only people with landlines and then adjusted the numbers arbitrarily, and we were wrong in 6 of 9 states! How could this happen?"
      "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
      Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

      Comment


      • #4
        Nate Silver, FTW!
        “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
        - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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        • #5
          I'd like to point out one other hugely significant datum: The Ipsos/Reuters online poll was very close to tracking the results correctly, far far closer than any other online poll has ever come. The difficulties of random sampling via online polling seem to have been overcome, which is a HUGE achievement, and likely means we can stop worrying about landlines or cell phones now.

          Future
          <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
          I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
            I'd like to point out one other hugely significant datum: The Ipsos/Reuters online poll was very close to tracking the results correctly, far far closer than any other online poll has ever come. The difficulties of random sampling via online polling seem to have been overcome, which is a HUGE achievement, and likely means we can stop worrying about landlines or cell phones now.

            Future
            Let's suss it out a bit before we declare it solid
            "I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
            'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger

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            • #7
              <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
              I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

              Comment


              • #8
                The RAND tracking poll was an interesting experiment that ended up pretty on-target. They tracked the same 3500 voters over the course of the year rather than calling different people. Their final result was Obama 49%-Romney 46%, so they called the two-candidate victory margin accurately.

                Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Asher View Post
                  Like I said?
                  Turns out just calling landlines skews polls. WHO KNEW

                  EDIT: Just saw your second post, sorry, now my sarcastic post isn't as good.
                  Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.

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                  • #10
                    The most accurate pollster (PPP) was landline-only and automated...
                    Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                    • #11
                      DrunkNateSilver predicted Asher would gloat about me!
                      “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                      ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

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