The Official 2012 Presidential Election Thread

[giblets]

Intrade's markets for state victories suck, gribbler. You could probably buy all the shares for less than 100 dollars

Obama
93.1%
Today's Change: +37.4
Shares Traded: 30,384
10 @ $9.30
Sell Shares
2 @ $9.47
Buy Shares
Romney
7.5%
Today's Change: -39.4
Shares Traded: 29,727


Looks more like $300,000 to me....

[snoopy369]

How do you define 'fairly unpopular'?

http://themoderatevoice.com/166866/good-sign-for-obama-approval-rating-52/

I mean, he's not Reagan, but what's the maximum possible approval rating for a Democrat nowadays? 60? Same for a Republican, if not lower. 35-40% of people are solidly on one side and will never approve of someone from the other.

[Asher]

A lot of people seem to owe Nate Silver an apology.

[giblets]

Looks like an fairly unpopular president is going to win, because there is nobody better. This is a sad day.

Obama is a pretty good president actually.

[snoopy369]

A lot of people seem to owe Nate Silver an apology.

I agree, though I think Nate would be the first to say that a single data point (2012 Election Results) does not prove or disprove his methodology, no more than a Romney victory would have.

[giblets]

Because it was the one place on my projection that was a speculative bet, the rest was pretty obvious.

Florida wasn't obvious.

[H Tower]

Hey, Joe "The Deadbeat Dad" Walsh lost. Huzzah!

Hooray, that Carpet Bagging ***** Duckworth won because she lost her legs in Iraq. That and a Congressional District drawn up specifically for her. She hasn't had an original idea for governing, EVER. I am ashamed she will be representing my district for 2 years. ******* Joe wasn't much of a prize either, which explains how Duckworth won, but at least he was willing to say what he would do to attempt to fix Medicare and Social Security.

[snoopy369]

Obama is a pretty good president actually.

Good != Popular. Why can't anybody here use language the way it's meant?

[Boris Godunov]

I agree, though I think Nate would be the first to say that a single data point (2012 Election Results) does not prove or disprove his methodology, no more than a Romney victory would have.

You do realize his methodology called 2008 to a tee as well, right?

[giblets]

Good != Popular. Why can't anybody here use language the way it's meant?

Kidicious said today was a sad day, which is untrue because a good president was re-elected.

[self biased]

A lot of people seem to owe Nate Silver an apology.

**** that guy. he knows what he did to deserve my wrath.

[Boris Godunov]

Iowa for Obama.

With him losing NC, my prediction is on track. Just need Obama to win VA and lose FL.

[Boris Godunov]

MSNBC calls Ohio for Obama AND THE ELECTION!!!

[snoopy369]

You do realize his methodology called 2008 to a tee as well, right?

What does that have to do with anything? I made a very specific point relating to these election results. I'm also someone who believes that his model is pretty darn good, so if you're under the misapprehension that I am suggesting his model isn't accurate, well, don't be.

[Boris Godunov]

What does that have to do with anything? I made a very specific point relating to these election results. I'm also someone who believes that his model is pretty darn good, so if you're under the misapprehension that I am suggesting his model isn't accurate, well, don't be.

Then what the hell was your point? We have two Presidential Elections where his data points were pretty spot-on. He was also the most accurate in the 2010 midterms. I think three data points is enough to say his methodology is pretty damned good.