The Official 2012 Presidential Election Thread

[Uncle Sparky]

When was the last time that a presidential candidate won the election while losing his home state?

[kentonio]

Nixon.

[giblets]

When was the last time that a presidential candidate won the election while losing his home state?

Looking at Wikipedia, 1916 appears to be the answer- Woodrow Wilson was governor of New Jersey before becoming President, so New Jersey is considered his home state, however while he won it in 1912 he lost it when he was re-elected.

Nixon.

No, Nixon won California in both 1968 and 1972.

[The Mad Monk]

Everyone called Vermont with 0% of the vote months ago so that's fine by me.

Kent, just relax and enjoy a pint of Ben & Jerry's.

[kentonio]

No, Nixon won California in both 1968 and 1972.

Nixon was resident in New York.

[Boris Godunov]

CNN Exit poll has Ohio as Obama +3.

Considering the Senate races so far are following the polls, I think the whole "the polls are biased" argument is failing.

[Hauldren Collider]

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/Data/2012/68C30477-AAF2-46DD-994E-5D3BE8A89C9B/Unofficial/1_s.shtml

Fairly confident Virginia will go Romney at this point. Chesapeake still appears to be an awesome bellweather, by the way. As of this writing, the state is at 55.16%-43.15% in favor of Romney and 55.21%-43.26% in Chesapeake City.

Only about 40% of precincts are in statewide, of course so it could still turn the other way. 80% are in in Chesapeake.

[Asher]

Oye, this thread is pathetic.

It's genuinely amazing, the things Republicans try to convince themselves of. Such weak people.

[giblets]

Yeah, with a tiny percentage of Fairfax County reporting in?

x-post.

[giblets]

Nate Silver says Montgomery County is Virginia's bellweather, and it's essentially tied.

[Arrian]

IIRC, when Obama won Virginia in '08, "his" precincts came in late. It wasn't called until ~90% reported. VA is apparently a coinflip, so I'd be surprised if it was called (correctly) early.

I think O will pull this out and the D's will hold the Senate, but of course I'll worry until it's over.

Polling place in (irrelevant) small town CT was busy. Voted O/B, Murphy, threw a vote to the greens in the House, and then Republicans for the state senate & rep (because context matters. CT republicans are often not nuts, and our Dems have too much control). I had pondered a Gary Johnson protest vote, but in the end I figured since I love half his agenda and hate half his agenda, I might as well stick with the Obamamonster.

-Arrian

[Boris Godunov]

60% of Florida in, Obama leads by ~100,000 votes. Exit polls say he won the Hispanic vote 60%-39% and the Jewish vote by 40%.

It will be close, but it's looking good. And if he wins FL, it's over early.

[snoopy369]

All polls are biased. The question is _not_ whether there is sampling or response bias (or, any other bias) in the polls. The question is how _much_ bias there is, and whether it tends to favor one candidate or is ultimately fairly neutral. So far it doesn't look like the bias is very substantial or very unidirectional.

[Arrian]

And exit polls are garbage. I thought this was common knowledge. Did I miss something?

-Arrian

[snoopy369]

I was responding to both Boris (saying the 'polls are biased' is wrong, which it certianly isn't) and the people arguing that the polls are biased and meaning that they're significantly biased in one direction (which is always possible but seems unlikely). Not talking about exit polls, which generally don't merit discussing.