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  • DC Braces for megastorm

    Das Compost

    Mega-storm threat growing for mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next week from hurricane Sandy
    By Jason Samenow


    There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a strong fall cold front and transition into a powerhouse, possibly historic mid-latitude storm along the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast coast Sunday through Wednesday.

    The majority of models now take Sandy from its current position over Jamaica northward over the Bahamas before curving the storm towards either the mid-Atlantic or Northeast coast. Models disagree on where the storm will recurve and make landfall: simulations vary from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. There remains a chance, though diminishing, the storm will slide harmlessly out to sea.



    The location of the storm’s landfall is very important for determining exactly what local impacts will be. Not everyone will experience significant or dangerous storm conditions. But suffice to say, coastal regions from the Carolinas through eastern Canada are likely to get battered by tremendous surf and face a real risk of significant to severe coastal flooding. This storm will be a slow mover meaning large waves may pound the coast for lengthy time periods. Not to mention, the wind and waves will raise the water level, bringing ashore a multiple foot storm surge in regions close to where the storm makes landfall (assuming it does so).

    Making matters worse, the storm will coincide with a full moon Monday night, meaning elevated tides above normal levels. Astronomically high tides have played a key role in historic coastal flooding events along the East Coast, such as the Ash Wednesday storm of March, 1962.

    Inland areas in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, from Richmond to Washington, D.C. to New York City to Boston, may also deal with significant storm impacts. Heavy rains are possible along with punishing winds. But the track is key in determining exactly where and we cannot say which areas, if any, will experience these conditions.

    As a hurricane transitions into a mid-latitude weather system, the storm’s core tends to unwind. This means the most extreme winds around the storm’s center diminish some, but very strong winds spread out over a larger distance, affecting a much broader region. In other words, sustained winds above tropical storm force (39 mph) will be possible for locations well-displaced from the storm’s center, meaning a high power outage risk.

    Severe inland flooding is another possibility. But again, it’s impossible to pinpoint if/where this will occur. Recall that the inland flooding - as opposed to wind or storm surge - was the greatest cause of death and economic damage during hurricane Irene in 2011 bringing torrents to upstate New York and Vermont.

    Finally, snow may be an issue at high elevation in the interior mid-Atlantic and Northeast as cold air pours down on the storm’s west and southwest flank. Some models suggest over a foot of heavy, wet snow could fall in places like western Maryland and central and western Pennsylvania. This amount of snow on top of existing foliage could result in tremendous tree damage and power outages.

    Snow is much less likely at lower elevations as the storm wraps around some mild air from the tropics. However, it cannot be ruled out briefly towards the tail end of the storm as tropical air departs and cold air wins

    Why is the storm unlikely to go out to sea?


    It’s actually pretty simple: a traffic jam in the atmosphere’s flow probably won’t let it. Models are consistent in showing a “blocking” area of high pressure west of Greenland and a big ocean storm to its east. These features are likely to prevent the big incoming cold front from pushing Sandy out to sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation - a measure of this “block” in the flow, is forecast to be three standard deviations from the average- meaning this is an exceptional situation. Thus, the storm is favored to be forced north rather than going east out to sea (although I stress this still cannot be ruled out)

    As NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center writes:

    “THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS... THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN SEEMS DESTINED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY BLOCKY HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH DECREASING WIGGLE ROOM FOR EVEN LARGE FEATURES LIKE SANDY. ”

    Round-up of voices/opinions about this storm

    Jeff Masters, wunderground: “Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England”

    Dr. Greg Forbes, the Weather Channel: “A worst-case scenario of Hurricane Sandy or some hybrid (mixed with a cold front and jet stream system coming toward it) could bring a widespread destructive windstorm to some part of the Northeast from Sunday into early next week. Prior to then, heavy rain, strong gusty winds, large waves and maybe storm surge are possible for coastal areas from FL to NJ.”

    Bryan Norcross, the Weather Channel: “....it’s not often that credible forecast models consistently forecast a historic event, and with more models leaning that way, we need to be aware and pay attention along the entire U.S. East Coast.”

    Joe Lundberg, AccuWeather: “....the evidence seems to be mounting toward the convergence of these two weather systems into an historic storm early next week.”

    Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather: “The realm of possibilities continues to range from Sandy escaping out to sea, with nothing more than blustery, much cooler air sweeping in, to a dynamic storm turning inland packing coastal flooding, flooding rainfall, high winds, downed trees, power outages, travel mayhem and even Appalachian snow.”
    Stock up on Ramen and ammo.
    Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.

  • #2
    "Historic storm." Get your video equipment ready, too.
    Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
    "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
    He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

    Comment


    • #3
      Sucks for them.
      Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

      Comment


      • #4
        At least we don't have firestorms.

        I remember that fine day in San Diego I stepped outside and said "Ah...is it snowing? It doesn't feel cold. I didn't think it snowed..."


        *Turns and looks at looming firestorm*

        "Whelp, back to the ship."
        Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.

        Comment


        • #5
          Was that 2003? Yeah, they had a massive wild fire that year.
          Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

          Comment


          • #6
            Is it too late to raid Felch's house for supplies?
            Pool Manager - Lombardi Handicappers League - An NFL Pick 'Em Pool

            https://youtu.be/HLNhPMQnWu4

            Comment


            • #7
              Business as usual here in Pittsburgh but they cancelled class at UVA so my friends are having a hurricane party...

              Not looking forward to walking to school in a foot of snow.
              If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
              ){ :|:& };:

              Comment


              • #8
                Well, my boss called me yesterday afternoon saying that the building was being closed and to not to report for work this evening. So since 1800 or so I've been drinking Laphroiag listening to the rain and watching Parks and Recreation.

                PEPCO is in top form, as usual. Let's hear it for Dominion power. I've just had a few flickers. Big tree went down outside my apartment building and I ran out to make sure it didn't crush my car.

                The pictures from the NYC subway system look pretty nightmarish.
                Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.

                Comment


                • #9

                  Is this shopped?
                  If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                  ){ :|:& };:

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Also, PEPCO

                    Dominion
                    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                    ){ :|:& };:

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I know it's flooded. I don't know to what degree. All tunnels and bridges closed. If you're there, you're staying there. What about GePap, for one?
                      Where is KH, for two? We need a sign in sheet.
                      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        KH lives in suburbia in Connecticut now.
                        If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                        ){ :|:& };:

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post

                          Is this shopped?
                          Yes.
                          Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.

                          Comment


                          • #14






                            Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              "Is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow? "No!' says the man in Washington, 'It belongs to the poor.' 'No!' says the man in the Vatican, 'It belongs to God.' 'No!' says the man in Moscow, 'It belongs to everyone.' I rejected those answers; instead, I chose something different. I chose the impossible. I chose... Rapture!"
                              If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                              ){ :|:& };:

                              Comment

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