Finally, Some Good News for Mitt

[Tupac Shakur]

Why would anyone have any confidence on Romney about anything as President? The one consistent theme of his existence has been, "I will say ANYTHING you want to get me elected."

Romney reminds me a lot of Hillary, who would be our President right now if America wasn't full of morons. Romney and Hilldawg are both stiff, uncool figures who can't quite make their pandering for votes seem natural, but they make up for whatever political liabilities they may have by being extremely smart and competent individuals who would be far better executives than a charismatic empty suit like Obama.

[MrFun]

The electoral map favors Obama too much. He's going to win Virginia again, which will be enough to counteract losing Ohio, Iowa and Florida, should that happen. Hell, he could lose Colorado (unlikely) and still win as long as he carries Virginia.

I'm not so sure Obama will lose Iowa. Iowa did vote for Obama in 2008.

[Tupac Shakur]

I think Obama's far more likely to win Iowa than he is Virginia.

[MrFun]

Obama won Virginia in 2008 too.

[Tupac Shakur]

Again, that was the only time in the last ten elections that the Democrats have won Virginia. They've won Iowa five times out of the last ten.

[MrFun]

true

[giblets]

And was followed up by a ridiculously huge lead for the Republicans in the following year's statewide elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.

Any polls which suggest that Obama is in the lead there aren't accounting for the fact that Republican supporters are going to turn out more, and that the key groups that allowed Obama to win Virginia last time already are looking unlikely to be turning out in large numbers again. Hispanics, blacks, and young voters will be voting less this year, in addition to a several point swing in the direction of the Republicans across the board.

edit: To be clear I'm referring to Virginia in particular in this post. I doubt Obama's going to get any Southern states besides Maryland and Delaware.

How do you know what the turnout for minorities and younger voters will be? Or do you just make this stuff up?

[Dinner]

The Real Clear Politics poll average (a weighted average of a bunch of other polls) shows Obama up by 4 points in Virginia which is just slightly higher than the error bars so it looks like unless the numbers move radically (and it's a long way until Nov so that's possible) this election is going to be a close one in that state.

[regexcellent]

How do you know what the turnout for minorities and younger voters will be? Or do you just make this stuff up?

Voter registration has declined among both groups, as have measures of enthusiasm.

[Boris Godunov]

I don't see why you're so confident about Virginia. The Democrats have only won the state once in the last ten presidential elections, and that victory came during the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

The demographics of Virginia have changed considerably over a relatively short period of time. There's plenty of examples of states that were previously likely for the other party but have shifted, and Virginia has definitely undergone a big shift. Obama has consistently polled ahead of Romney there, even when suffering the lowest approval ratings of his term. It's also probably the single biggest target for the Obama campaign's organization efforts.

[Boris Godunov]

Romney reminds me a lot of Hillary, who would be our President right now if America wasn't full of morons. Romney and Hilldawg are both stiff, uncool figures who can't quite make their pandering for votes seem natural, but they make up for whatever political liabilities they may have by being extremely smart and competent individuals who would be far better executives than a charismatic empty suit like Obama.

And you base that smartness and competency on what, exactly?

[Boris Godunov]

Voter registration has declined among both groups, as have measures of enthusiasm.

I believe he was asking for actual evidence of this in Virginia, which I can't locate.

[Hauldren Collider]

The electoral map favors Obama too much. He's going to win Virginia again,

[Hauldren Collider]

I think Obama's far more likely to win Iowa than he is Virginia.

QFMFT

[Hauldren Collider]

Obama won Virginia in 2008 too.

For the first time in 40 years, and then they got completely trashed at every level of government in THREE consecutive elections (2009, 2010, AND 2011).

Regarding the virginia polls: http://bearingdrift.com/2012/05/07/t...nary-virginia/

The polling in Virginia has been hilariously bad. The Washington Post is getting kind of outrageous.