2012 Election Map Prediction Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm saying that if Romney wins Massachusettes, I will eat the disgusting quasi-food item of your choice.

He managed to win a gubernatorial election there so anything's possible. We know what the polls say but Mass. voters did vote for Romney before.


Looking at the electoral map, it's evident that Romney MUST win Florida. I don't see any way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Florida.

[Jaguar]

I'm saying that if Romney wins Massachusettes, I will eat the disgusting quasi-food item of your choice.

The safer bet is something like "if Obama wins at least six states, he will win MA."

It would almost take a literal miracle to make that statement false.

[Hauldren Collider]

He managed to win a gubernatorial election there so anything's possible. We know what the polls say but Mass. voters did vote for Romney before.


Looking at the electoral map, it's evident that Romney MUST win Florida. I don't see any way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Florida.

You could also say he must win Texas. There's no way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Texas. But the question is whether it would flip before other states. If Obama wins Florida, he also wins other states he would need.

[Hauldren Collider]

The safer bet is something like "if Obama wins at least six states, he will win MA."

It would almost take a literal miracle to make that statement false.

I think you need to put the number higher than six states. I would expect Romney to overperform a generic Republican in Massachusetts.

[Jaguar]

I think you need to put the number higher than six states. I would expect Romney to overperform a generic Republican in Massachusetts.

I was giving Romney an edge over the generic Republican. MA is Obama's third-strongest state, just barely behind Hawaii and Vermont.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Looking at the electoral map, it's evident that Romney MUST win Florida. I don't see any way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Florida.

He could do it, but he'd have to pick up Pennsylvania, and that doesn't seem very likely this year.

[Jaguar]

He could do it, but he'd have to pick up Pennsylvania, and that doesn't seem ver likely this year.

Karl Rove framed it in terms of a 3-2-1 strategy. The three usually-Republican states of VA, IN, and NC. The two infamous swing states of OH and FL. And one more.

His board looks like this.

I think it is very difficult to come up with a plausible win for Romney that doesn't follow that path. He's not going to carry the entire upper midwest and lose Ohio or Florida.

[Jaguar]

In the Rove framework, the strategy becomes pretty clear. Obama should decide whether to pour his heart and soul into denying one of the "2", or should he just defend all of the states I left "undecided" there?

The OH and FL pair are both slightly Republican-leaning in a typical 50-50 vote, which makes them scary to defend. In contrast, the nine states that could be potential tipping points for Romney are all quite Democratic-leaning, but that's a lot of states to defend.

[Imran Siddiqui]

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kEd

Same as Rufus's

[The Mad Monk]

I'm saying that if Romney wins Massachusettes, I will eat the disgusting quasi-food item of your choice.

Smutto.

[Al B. Sure!]

Please can an Obama love-child come out of the woodwork before November...

[The Mad Monk]

What did Guynemer ever do to you?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

In the Rove framework, the strategy becomes pretty clear. Obama should decide whether to pour his heart and soul into denying one of the "2", or should he just defend all of the states I left "undecided" there?

The OH and FL pair are both slightly Republican-leaning in a typical 50-50 vote, which makes them scary to defend. In contrast, the nine states that could be potential tipping points for Romney are all quite Democratic-leaning, but that's a lot of states to defend.

I think Ohio in particular is going to be a tough win for the GOP this year, especially given the unpopularity of their governor.

[Elok]

This reminds me very strongly of NFL talk.

[The Mad Monk]

It's certainly my favorite spectator sport.