U.S. Gun Ownership: In Decline?

[giblets]

Paul Waldman, in the final installment of his epic series about guns and the NRA (nickel summary: the gun lobby isn't as influential as you think), provides us with a surprising chart. For the last 30 years, it turns out, gun ownership has dropped steadily. Today, only about 30% of households own a gun. Most of this is due to demographics. Apparently there was a big spurt in gun ownership in the generation born between 1920 and 1960, and then the spurt went away. Cohorts born in later years all own guns at substantially lower levels.



It's hard to square this up with gun sales because (a) nobody seems to reliably track overall gun sales, and (b) the vast majority of new gun sales are made to a smallish number of big customers, such as police forces and militaries. Still, unit gun sales seem to have gone up pretty explosively between 2005-10, doubling from around 5 million per year to 10 million per year. FBI background checks, a proxy for gun sales to individuals, have gone up too.

So I'm not sure what's going on. Gun sales to individuals seem like they've increased a fair amount over the past decade, but the number of households reporting gun ownership has decreased a bit. Does this mean that fewer households own guns, but the ones that do own guns have more and more of them? More data please!

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/chart-day-gun-ownership-30-year-decline

Does this mean America has less casual gun owners who like to go hunting, but more gun nuts who are prepared for peak oil and the collapse of civilization?

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Are there any comparative figures stretching back to the 1920s? I'd be interested in checking out how this compares with car ownership figures.

[The Mad Monk]

Was this taken form registered gun records, or was it a survey?

I suppose it doesn't really matter either way, except it's harder to get around the registry than lie to a pollster.

I think it's more a measure of open gun ownership, especially after draconian gun control laws took effect along the coasts.

[Hauldren Collider]

30% is a pretty enormous demographic.

[Aeson]

Also, the Gun Control Act of 1968 + rising number of felons probably helped.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Looks like the trend was broadly flat until 1989. I'm interested in what's driving that change.

[kentonio]

especially after draconian gun control laws took effect along the coasts.

Draconian? This place really needs a lol smiley.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

It's like the falls in recorded crime levels. The accepted wisdom was that there were links with the economy- you'd get more crime when times were hard. That's not really being supported by the figures recently.

Cue all sorts of weird and wonderful theories springing up.

[giblets]

Apparently being elderly makes you less likely to have a gun in your home:

The "before 1920" cohort had a significant drop in their 70's.

[The Mad Monk]

Draconian? This place really needs a lol smiley.

I also said "the coasts". Pay attention.

[The Mad Monk]

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20120301_TotalNICSBackgroundChecks.pdf

A background check has been required for all new gun purchases since 1998.

[kentonio]

I also said "the coasts". Pay attention.

That makes it less funny why?

[The Mad Monk]

Because there is a gulf between the laws of the coasts and the interior.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nic...oundChecks.pdf

A background check has been required for all new gun purchases since 1998.

How relevant do you feel that is? Looks like the sharper fall happened before that, and has since levelled off to a large extent.

[The Mad Monk]

With the exception of the peak of Nov-Dec 1999 (who would have guessed?), checks have been steadily increasing and accelerating to the present day.