Do oil trade sanctions work?

[rah]

I think it's a bit different there since the government could fall but the religious leaders would still contain control.

[Dinner]

A separate question of course is whether the sanctions, if they do as designed (i.e. cause economic hardship to the regime), will "work" in backing the regime away from the nuclear program.

On this I am far more skeptical. I think we can cause them pain but I don't see them giving in.

Iran supposedly just opened another new uranium enrichment facility last week and this one is under ground so as to be much harder to hit with airstrikes. Economically it's clear Iran is wasting a lot of money on its nuclear program which could be better spent on other things (like building reservoirs & aqueducts to increase it's agricultural output so it doesn't have to import so much food) but I guess the head theocrats have decided its nuclear or bust for their national security.

[Wezil]

It's the paranoid decision. Having a nuke in your pocket is a good invasion deterrent but the cost is high as you point out. The hope is the regime (and ayatollahs) are unpopular enough for the common people to decide the price is too high and toss the buggers out.

Like I say, I'm not optimistic.