"Are the generals stealing Egypt?"

[Zevico]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MJ18Ak01.html

The author ("Spengler", a pseudonym for David Goldman, economist) posits that Egypt is heading towards bankruptcy. It is receiving foreign aid but far from enough to pay its bills. Bankruptcy, and perhaps even starvation may follow as Egypt's subsidised foodstuffs stop flowing. The author speculates as follows:

Egypt's Finance Minister Hazem el-Beblawi is talking about reviving discussion with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $3 billion credit. All in all, less than $5 billion in aid to Egypt seems to be in play, against a financing requirement well in excess of $20 billion. The economics of the proposed IMF loan make no sense, but split among a dozen senior officials, $3 billion goes a long way.

In a previous article I can't be buggered to find he speculated that this crisis may be averted (if memory serves) if the generals cut their own defence budget and use the rest to keep the subsidies going.

Either way Egypt is not looking good.

[Thoth]

Does Egypt have oil?

[Zevico]

Does Egypt have oil?

Yes, in the Sinai. But there's not much of it at all. It's far from being a major producer.

An interesting read on the subject of egyptian oil:http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7425

Compare and contrast the Saudi approach--they had more than enough currency in hand to appease everyone thanks to their oil-bought currency.

[giblets]

I'm surprised by how Egypt and Libya have been getting so much attention, considering that they're in Africa.

[giblets]

Also, "Spengler" sounds like a terrible pseudonym.

[Zevico]

I'm surprised by how Egypt and Libya have been getting so much attention, considering that they're in Africa.

If Egypt goes down the drain try guessing what happens in the Middle East next. Then guess what happens to oil prices.

[Dinner]

It seems that the Generals are working against implementing real democracy.

[Traianvs]

Yes (@ OP). The generals don't need Egypt per se, the power it yields is enough. And more importantly, they don't need anyone else to interfere. Hooray for democracy!

[Traianvs]

It seems that the Generals are working against implementing real democracy.

You're telling us anything new? Maybe you have some indepth knowledge of some of these organisations that would mitigate this kind of situations!

[Dinner]

That's just what the talking heads on TV are saying. That the generals are trying to make sure they maintain their power as much as possible. Is this new? No, it's been around as long as there has been Generals.

[Zevico]

Speculation ensues:
(1) The Egyptian elections won't be supervised by foreign observers. In other words, it's possible that the vote will be rigged by the military to favour its preferred vision for Egypt. Speculation and rumours of a military-Muslim Brotherhood alliance abound. Even if the vote isn't rigged the MB is popular enough to gain a substantial, leading minority in the polls.
(2) If and when Egypt runs out of government subsidised food, will the top echelons of the Egyptian military have enough money, power and influence to buy off the Egyptian officer class, elite (bought off) military units enough for them to shoot at anyone who tries a rebellion?
(3) If not, the Egyptian military or some part of it might be bought off and assist in a coup by the prospect of power or promotion by an alternative would-be ruling elite, such as the MB, which is still the only well organised mass political movement in Egypt.
(4) Regardless, expect a Tiannemen Square redux if a real rebellion against the Egyptian military arises. No more "the army and the people are one" nonsense.
(5) Another possibility is the collapse of the Egyptian state. Anarchy, starvation, gangs roving the countryside. No foreseeable resolution as ethnic and religious hatreds spur on tribal and civil war. After a sea of blood, a new strongman emerges.
(6) A desperate Egyptian army looking for popularity provokes a war with the Israelis to galvanise nationalist, anti-Jewish sentiment and unite it around the military.
(7) None of the above.