Three Charts Republicans Should Know

[Kuciwalker]

Those are some of the most hilariously disingenuous graphs I've ever seen.

[Zevico]

President Obama signing the ARRA into law.

Look at all those white people in the background.
Clearly this administration is racist.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

You clearly have no idea what the ARRA is. It would be nice if those of you who don't know what the **** you're talking about would stay out of these discussions.

As a public service:

For those still confused, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (of which TARP was a part) was signed by Bush. It is generally thought to be the mechanism that prevented system wide collapse and in general has pad for itself (despite the claims of bailing out the fat cats populist rhetroic). Most people think it successful. Win one for Bush. Some small amount of credit is due to the Obama treasury for administering the program, albeit in a hacktastic way. It was a bipartisan passed emergency measure.

Prior to the EESA, Bush's stab at Keynsian stimulus was that he passed the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, it consisted of one time tax breaks for citizens. It had minimal impact as most people paid down debt or saved considering they expected a worsening economy. Generally tax breaks are fast hitting but short lived, a jolt to get things moving. Didn't work as the housing collapse later in the year overshadowed all previous stimulative effects. Also a bipartisan effort. IMO, this was money largely wasted.

The American Reinvestment and Recovery Act was purely an invention of the Obama administration and passed both chambers of congress with almost no GOP support. (none in the house & the typical squishes supporting it in the senate). This is the infamous stimulus package that has had little effect and was to go to a mix of tax breaks (shown previously per Bush's stab at keynsian policy to be innefffective), nonexistent shovel ready jobs for infrastructure (always expected to be interminably delayed and overrun)and pent up democratic boondoggle projects that never would have seen the light of day were it not for once in a life time politcal climate the dems found themselves with , as well as payments to states to shore up state wide deficit issues (thus prolonging the necessary and needed state wide budget refroms). Large expenditures/wastages of money were expended in 2009 and 2010 as a consequence. It has been analyzed and most folk agree that ARRA was a failure. Although one can not change time and see the effect without ARRA it is generally thought that the expected keynsian multipliers for this stimulus effort in no way approaches what was expected.

[Dinner]

Republicans and conservative democrats massively modified the ARRA (making it much worse in terms of actual economic stimulus) but then ended up voting against it any way mostly for partisan reasons. The original administration proposal had about 50% infrastructure spending in it but after Congress got done with it actual infrastructure spending was down to just 7% of the bill with 35%-40% of the bill being tax cuts in various forms. The rest of the bill was mainly aid to states (in order to help prevent states from laying off workers and thus forcing the unemployment rate up) and social welfare measures designed to help people layed off (such as extended unemployment and additional food stamp funding to deal with the increased demand from the unemployed).

As I see it, the original plan was pretty good and would have bester stimulated economic growth by providing a bomb in construction but the negotiations with Republicans significantly worsened the bill and in the end they still wouldn't vote for it even though tax cuts made up the largest part of the bill. Tax cuts dripped out in small increments (it averaged about $25 to $50 per month per person) just don't stimulate much of anything because most people didn't notice it was even there anyway. Direct government purchase do indeed generate new factory orders and so would have provided excellent stimulus in the form of increased total demand but that portion of the bill got watered down so much it went from 50% of the bill to just 7%. The lesson here is the administration got played for a fool by the Republicans (something which it is still doing on a regular basis) because it keeps compromising (and thus making the bill significantly less likely to stimulate the economy) in order to appease Republicans but the Republicans ended up stabbing him in the eye and playing politics even though they got just about everything they wanted. The lesson Obama should have learned is to say "F*ck you, I'm doing it the right way, the way economists all agree it should be done" instead of vainly hoping that giving into Republican demands would actually result in the Republican leadership allowing it's members to vote for the final product. Obama is apparently a slow learner though because he keeps falling for the same stupid political game the Republicans play instead of sticking to his guns and insisting on the best policies; no matter how much you give them the Republicans won't vote for anything he wants (even when he agrees to policies Republicans proposed they turn a 180 and suddenly announce they hate their own proposals) so he should have just told them to **** off and done it the right way.

Lord knows that's exactly what the Republicans did when they were in charge but for some reason Democrats have no backbone and won't stand up for their beliefs even when it is obvious Republicans are just playing stupid reindeer games.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Then again there is that portion of the populace that continues to believe in the fairy tale that large scale works can be completed in a timely fashion (if at all) given the hyper regulated and litigious society we live in and that capital purchases of equipment will funnel their way back to the USA who has a diminished manufacturing base.

[Kidlicious]

Although one can not change time and see the effect without ARRA it is generally thought that the expected keynsian multipliers for this stimulus effort in no way approaches what was expected.

But there is no evidence at all what the multipliers were, because we don't know how bad it would have been without the stimulus. Whatever you believe is simply the product of your bias and nothing more such as science.

[Kidlicious]

Then again there is that portion of the populace that continues to believe in the fairy tale that large scale works can be completed in a timely fashion (if at all) given the hyper regulated and litigious society we live in and that capital purchases of equipment will funnel their way back to the USA who has a diminished manufacturing base.

And whose fault is it that we import so much that multipliers are lower?

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

But there is no evidence at all what the multipliers were, because we don't know how bad it would have been without the stimulus. Whatever you believe is simply the product of your bias and nothing more such as science.

I believe my caveat addresssed this exact point. Thank you for reiterating what was obvious considering I never claimed "science" in my response.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

And whose fault is it that we import so much that multipliers are lower?

Given my experience, generally speaking industry has moved off shore due to inherent cost structural issues in the US.

With the exodus of large manufacturing the impact to demand for secondary tier suppliers likewise is impacted.

[Kidlicious]

Given my experience, generally speaking industry has moved off shore due to inherent cost structural issues in the US.

With the exodus of large manufacturing the impact to demand for secondary tier suppliers likewise is impacted.

So it's industry's fault that we are stuck in this recession?

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Wow simplisticism. Who would have thought.

[Kidlicious]

Wow simplisticism. Who would have thought.

Sometimes simplicity is a good thing, not that this is neccessarily one of those times, but you're the one with the simple answer. I was just getting conformation.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Sometimes simplicity is a good thing, not that this is neccessarily one of those times, but you're the one with the simple answer. I was just getting conformation.

You were looking for "confirmation" and got none. Congrats consideriing I never suggested a root cause, ****.

[Kidlicious]

You were looking for "confirmation" and got none. Congrats consideriing I never suggested a root cause, ****.

I asked you who was to blame, and you said industry did ...

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

I asked you who was to blame, and you said industry did ...

You truly are an idiot. You asked whose fault is it that we import so much. If your take away was that industy desires to have structural cost such that they are not as profitable as they need to be and as a result premeditated the migration to go overseas by somehow manipulating the business eviron to be unfavorable to them in the US, you have managed the impossible and are a larger moron than I could imagine.