How do you think the revolt in Libya will turn out

[Egbert]

Do you think the rebels will oust Gaddaffi? Or perhaps there will be some other result?

I am inclined to think that either Gaddaffi will win or there will be a protracted civil war. Thise assumes NATO does not commit ground troops. I see the civil war with an effective partition of Libya as very feasible. I think it but a matter of time until NATO tires of enforcing the no fly zone. Public enthusiasm would wane but Gaddaffi won't be caving in.

Of course, this whole thread seems somewhat speculative.

[dannubis]

They will get rid of Gadaffi alright. But nothing much in the form of centralized governement can come into place since this is tribal berber country.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

long civil war...

[SlowwHand]

Rebels oust Gaddaffi and form a government

[Asher]

Osama bin Laden is elected President of the new country.

[BeBMan]

Some of those options aren't mutually exclusive. Just sayin'

As for Libya, I'm torn between the POV that Obama is a muslim and terrist which would make the whole op a case of friendly fire, and the POV that he's ObamaHitler which would make Sarkozy the new desert fox leading the Afrikakorps into battle.

[Asher]

[Whoha]

Libya split in two. the rebels can not oust Gadaffi and we're not going to.

[rah]

If some country will agree to give Gadaffi sanctuary then this might end well. If not, I don't see a happy resolution.

[germanos]

I'd say protracted civil war effectively putting the country into anarchy. Another Iraq really.

[Traianvs]

A protracted civil war won't happen for two reasons:

• Either Khadafi gains ground and he effectively crushes the remaining resistance in true dictatorship style. As he's a pariah in the international community now, he doesn't have to take human rights and that sort of thing into consideration.
  
• Or the rebels win this war with the help of western bombardments. The west, and France first and foremost, cannot accept defeat now they've dropped Khadafi. Europe is already frowned upon since it can't mount even a halfway decent military operation. Losing to a puny puppet leader in the Middle East would lower its status even more. Europe has every reason to push things to the limit.

Either way, both are driven into a one way street with no reverse gears available. A stand-off is inevitable.

Of course all of this is speculative

[germanos]

A protracted civil war won't happen for two reasons:

• Either Khadafi gains ground and he effectively crushes the remaining resistance in true dictatorship style. As he's a pariah in the international community now, he doesn't have to take human rights and that sort of thing into consideration.
  
• Or the rebels win this war with the help of western bombardments. The west, and France first and foremost, cannot accept defeat now they've dropped Khadafi. Europe is already frowned upon since it can't mount even a halfway decent military operation. Losing to a puny puppet leader in the Middle East would lower its status even more. Europe has every reason to push things to the limit.

Either way, both are driven into a one way street with no reverse gears available. A stand-off is inevitable.

• Ghaddaffi will not be allowed to gain ground. Then we get another Benghazi bail-out by NATO/whoever is the most trigger happy.
• The rebels are a bunch of idiots who hardly know how the waste their ammo on firing in the air. They will not be able to take any town not belonging to their tribe. They are confined to the east

stale-mate

The only thing that might lead to Ghaddaffi's downfall if he looses the western territories. That hasn't happened so far and I doubt it will. If it does happen he still holds the centre.

Perhaps Mugabe will invite Moammar over. Poor Zimbabwe.

[Fake Boris]

The illegal combatants will be sent to Guantanamo.

[Dinner]

The civil war will continue for a while making it clear Kadaffi can't crush the rebels as they're protected by western airpower but the rebels are militarially worthless so they can't take anything. Eventually the west gets tired of this stalemate and does the job itself probably after sending in a few "advisers" to help train and arm the rebels for the better part of a year but in the end it will be westerners who kick out Kadaffi not the poorly trained and poorly armed militia.

[MOBIUS]

I think I mentioned partition a while back. That's what I'm going for.