Let's talk some econ/finance ****

[notyoueither]

Hey guys, we can build a bunch of **** and ship it over there for them to buy so long as we give them the money to buy it!

Ermm, yeah, why do we want to do that again?

[Dauphin]

I can't remember if I posed the question here or not, but is there any place where austerity measured actually worked to pull a country out of a recession or depression?

If our politicians and right wing media are to be believed, Canada.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

also Sweden...

however both of those had the austerity measures implemented where there rest of the world was experiencing growth and their local actions had negligible impact on anything outside the borders, having a growing external environment helped soften the impact of the internal cuts...

this time around it is not quite the same...

[Asher]

If our politicians and right wing media are to be believed, Canada.

[dannubis]

How much of the recovery in Canada is happening through the mining and energy sector ?

[Drogue]

I can't remember if I posed the question here or not, but is there any place where austerity measured actually worked to pull a country out of a recession or depression?

Austerity measures aren't meant to pull a country out of recession, they're implemented after you've come out of recession to pay for the measures you took to get you out of recession.

[DaShi]

Then why are countries implementing them while still in a recession?

[Asher]

How much of the recovery in Canada is happening through the mining and energy sector ?

Much of it. The oil price certainly helped in Prairies and Atlantic regions.

Ontario doesn't have much of either (as a percentage of their economy) and have still recovered nicely, even with a massive drop in manufacturing (which has been their mainstay for decades).

[Barnabas]

Krazy Horse

If you lived in a third world country with 25% annual inflation, how would you do to save money?

You can't put the money into a bank because you only get 9% per year

You can't buy dollars because the native currency is barely devaluating

What most people do is invest the money in properties (houses, apartments) so that they can get a rent, and peg the rent to the inflation rate to avoid losing money

[notyoueither]

If our politicians and right wing media are to be believed, Canada.

Are they claiming we have had austerity budgets?

[DaShi]

I wish Lord Shiva was here. I want to ask him about banking in India.

[C0ckney]

I doubt it will have to. If and when it does will be entirely down to a tipping point in the market, when the few jitters get loud enough to stop people lending en masse.

i'm not so confident, the cost of its borrowing is still rising. yesterday they paid 6% on a 2.5 year bond, which compares with 4.1% in september 2010. their 10 year borrowing cost is 7.69% and has been climbing for some time. you have to ask how long this is sustainable for.

also i've read that the ECB now owns around 20% portuguese government debt, and seems to be the main buyer for lots of its most recent paper. one can only imagine what the rates would be like without this intervention. it also seems a bit ironic that the central bank is creating a false market in government debt.

A potential debt-deflation spiral. Though I would be surprised if the EU Central Bank pushed peripheral countries that far, as they'd seriously consider exiting the Euro and Germany wouldn't want that. Even though Trichet seems to have his head in the sand on deflationary troubles, I can't see Euro interest rates rising much soon.

it seems that there are both inflationary and deflationary pressures in the euro zone and trichet seems more concerned about the former. or maybe the real problem is the single interest rate for economies which are different and performing very differently at the moment.

it contrasts with the attitude of the bank of england which is do nothing while inflation climbs to 4% or 5% (depending on which measure you use) and to keep saying that it's all down to 'temporary' factors. the same thing they've been saying for about 3 years...

Well, it's a country bailout, rather than a bank one, and yes I could see it, but bailout has the wrong connotations for some circumstances. Whether or not these bailouts cost the ECB anything depend on what rate they charge on them. The market is not perfectly efficient because of a co-ordination problem: countries may be solvent if they are able to roll over their debt, but may default if they cannot - effectively a confidence problem causing a liquidity one. In this situation, investors only want to offer funding if other investors will as well, or if they're so big that they can bankroll the country. So investors that are not that large shy away because they'd expect to lose money, but a single very large investor would expect to make a profit. The ECB could provide this role and make money on it. However telling the difference between a solely confidence/liquidity problem and a solvency one is very difficult, and if the ECB steps in to an insolvent country, it's likely to lose money and this would constitute a bailout in the colloquial sense of the term.

thanks, that's interesting.

i say bank bailout because i read that some analysis by barclays capital suggested that the actions of the EBC had allowed banks to leave the portuguese bond market. in 2010 the ECB purchased 20 billion euros of portuguese government debt and banks sold the same amount, very convenient! when you consider that portugal only issued 21.7 billion in total last year, it points to the false market i talked about earlier.

Clearly the default of a country in the Eurozone is a bad thing for the rest of the Eurozone, so even if they're liable to lose money, I would be surprised if the ECB or another country (ie. Germany) didn't step in if a Eurozone country got into difficulty. Which makes the power balance between the EU and the new Irish government interesting: you may expect that the Irish government has little power, they've agreed to pay a certain rate of interest and that their people want to pay a lower one shouldn't matter. But if the Irish default it has huge knock-on consequences for other Eurozone countries, so other countries will want to avoid this even if it means getting a lower return. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. However it does I can see it hurting Ireland's future borrowing, as the market will be slow to forget being held to ransom in that way.

i know that some irish politicians on the fringes have calling for a default, and i think the government will under enormous pressure to renegotiate the deal, as they promised the people they would do so. i agree it will be interesting.

Yes, if there's enough political will. Whether it should is a different matter, but it's possible for it to survive indefinitely if politicians want to remain members of it.

this is probably true, i'm more interested in what kind of event would make politicians start to think the price is too high.

[Dauphin]

Are they claiming we have had austerity budgets?

Example 1, but there are lots.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10254055

Canada may be better known for its brightly-attired policemen and love of ice hockey, but its example of successful budget-cutting is suddenly all the rage with the UK government.

As Prime Minister David Cameron warns of the need for extensive spending cuts to bring down the UK's substantial public deficit, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition is aiming to follow the achievement of the Canadian government between 1993 and 1996.

During those four years, the then Canadian administration of prime minister Jean Chretien managed to turn a deficit of 9.1% or 39bn Canadian dollars ($37bn; £25bn) into a small budget surplus.

While the UK government faces a tougher challenge - a deficit of 11.5% or £156bn - what lessons can it learn from Canada?

[MRT144]

Let's go dollar. Clap Clap CLAPCLAPCLAP!

[KrazyHorse]

Then why are countries implementing them while still in a recession?

Why do you believe so firmly without empirical evidence (or theoretical justification, given the existence of fiat currencies) that deficit spending leads to greater economic growth?