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Thread in which I make tech predictions

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  • Thread in which I make tech predictions

    PREDICTION: Within two years, Nvidia will be purchased by IBM, Intel, or some other huge tech company.

    BASIS: The market for discrete GPUs will be declining, if not completely stagnant. Integrated GPUs are becoming far more capable (see AMD's upcoming Llano and Intel's upcoming Sandy Bridge), and the long-term trend will be for fast, simple SIMD processors to be bundled onto the CPU die (like AMD's Fusion, Intel's Knights Ferry) which also reduces the market for "general purpose GPU" like Nvidia's Tesla and AMD's FireGL.

    Nvidia no longer has a chipset business. They instead are trying to break into the embedded market with Tegra (as used in the Zune), but their design wins are becoming fewer. Most recently, the Tegra was booted out of the potentially-awesome Boxee Box (TV streamer, due out next month) because it's not fast enough. The low-power GPU market that Tegra competes in is pretty saturated now with some very good competition, like the GPUs in the iPhones, Android phones, etc. Tegra's just not too competitive anymore.

    They're in fewer markets today than they were a year ago, and the ones they're in are shrinking.

    But they have a massive patent portfolio (both of their own, and from their acquisitions like 3dfx). And they have talented engineers that could be put to use as part of designing next-gen CPU components. A very likely acquisition target for Intel or IBM.
    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

  • #2
    Could Nvidia go into CPU production instead? They aren't getting along with Intel right now.

    JM
    Jon Miller-
    I AM.CANADIAN
    GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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    • #3
      Does that mean buy or sell Nvidia?

      JM
      Jon Miller-
      I AM.CANADIAN
      GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

      Comment


      • #4
        They would have to go into a non-x86 CPU design (not production, they don't make anything...they're fabless). ARM is a big market right now. But I'm not sure they'd enter the market well, it's already hyper-competitive.

        Intel won't license x86 to them.

        And I'm not going to say anything about the stock. I don't think it'll perform too well, but I'd have sold a year ago. I'm not sure if it's worth selling now.
        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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        • #5
          Nvidia would bring a lot of value to Intel (who struggles designing GPUs, even though they're slowly getting better) or IBM (who could use Nvidia's tech pretty well in the supercomputer and compute cluster market they love).
          "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
          Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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          • #6
            GPU cluster computing is awesome.

            Our currently code, with just a few parts set to use GPUs would prefer to have 10 GPUs per CPU.

            It is possible that we could design it to use GPUs even more, only one person has tried and with only one module of code.

            I am not sure I would build a cluster without GPUs right now.

            JM
            Jon Miller-
            I AM.CANADIAN
            GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

            Comment


            • #7
              I've been playing with OpenCL myself for doing some audio manipulation (at home), trying to guess music genres algorithmically. A ton of DSP-esque ops.

              At work I'm exploring OpenCL for doing gesture recognition (multi-touch surface), as well as vector manipulation, anti-aliasing, and drawing. It's wickedly fast.

              Management isn't too high on it due to the increased system requirements. But I'm building a proof of concept to show them it'll be worth it.
              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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              • #8
                The basic code to recognize gestures from a stream of points is something on the order of 1000x faster with OpenCL on a Radeon 5770 (800 stream processors). It's absurdly responsive.
                "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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                • #9
                  The module that runs on CUDA is 100x as fast as that written in extremely optimized assembler (which was faster than standard code).

                  JM
                  Jon Miller-
                  I AM.CANADIAN
                  GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm very interested to play with AVX in the new Sandy Bridge processors also. It doubles the SIMD throughput on the CPU, upgrading the SSE engines from 128-bit to 256-bit.
                    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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                    • #11
                      Not sure what that is?

                      JM
                      Jon Miller-
                      I AM.CANADIAN
                      GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

                      Comment


                      • #12


                        New features

                        * The size of the SIMD vector registers is increased from 128-bits XMM registers to 256-bits registers called YMM0 - YMM15. Existing 128-bit instructions use the lower half of the YMM registers. Further extensions to 512 or 1024 bits are expected in the future.
                        * Non-destructive instructions. The AVX instruction set allows all two-operand XMM instructions to be modified into non-destructive three-operand forms where the destination register is different from both source registers. For example a:=a+b is replaced by c:=a+b so that register a is unchanged after the instruction. AVX does not support non-destructive forms of instructions using general purpose registers (e.g. EAX), but such support may be added in future instruction sets.
                        * The alignment requirement of SIMD memory operands is relaxed.

                        Applications

                        Suitable for floating point-intensive calculations in multimedia, scientific and financial applications. Increases parallelism and throughput in floating point SIMD calculations. Reduces register load due to the non-destructive instructions.
                        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          So should I wait until Intel's Dusty Bottom integrated GPU before buying a new comp?
                          “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
                          "Capitalism ho!"

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                          • #14
                            Still wouldn't want to use integrated GPUs to play games today.
                            "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                            Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Asher View Post
                              I've been playing with OpenCL myself for doing some audio manipulation (at home), trying to guess music genres algorithmically. A ton of DSP-esque ops.
                              One of the profs I've done work for is a major guy in the music information retrieval field.



                              SP
                              I got the Jete from C.C. Sabathia. : Jon Miller

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