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I don't think it is outside the realm of possibility for a Republican candidate to get 30% of the black vote in a major race if the conditions are right. (which admittedly would be difficult for those conditions to be right)
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Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - Rah -
Has that ever happened? (since the modern civil rights era, and in a state with a significant black electorate)Originally posted by OzzyKP View Post12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Voinovich got 32% for Senate in Ohio in 2004. If I remember correctly there was an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot that year too.
Steele got 25% of the black vote in Maryland in 2006.
Spector got 25% in PA in 2004.
And while 4% population probably isn't significant, Kyl got 40% in Arizona in 2006.Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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So I guess with the Voinovich example, my future prediction is now kind of foolish, since it already happened. I guess I should try pushing the limit and predict 40 or 50%.Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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Voinovich-Fingerhut was not a major race (the Dem lost by almost 30% in a state that has recently been competitive, and Obama won by 5%). Specter is now a Democrat. And Steele is a black guy. The Kyl numbers could be accounted for by a small sample size, as you said."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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And Houston
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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None of that matters or changes anything from my statement/prediction. Ohio was definitely competitive in 04. Bush carried it by just over 2%.Originally posted by Ramo View PostCaptain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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That was my point. Fingerhut was not a real candidate."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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So?
Not a relevant point.
Also, interestingly, Bush got 28% of the black vote in Oklahoma in 2004:
Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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I repeat. Voinovich-Fingerhut was not a major race."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Those Indian casinos in Oklahoma are crap. They don't even HAVE to pay off, if they deem it too high. No controls over the savages. How did they vote?Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
"Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ BraindeadComment
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dpLife is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
"Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ BraindeadComment
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Major race = Senate, Governor, PresidentOriginally posted by Ramo View Post
Whatever criteria you are using to determine "major" is not relevant.Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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Mark Pryor ran uncontested for the Senate last year (strictly speaking, against a Green). I guess that means the Dems have gotten the fundies all locked up."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I never said "locked up"Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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