Chinese Naval Might

[Lonestar]

# of ships is a pretty crappy metric.

Bingo, tonnage and electronics are better metrics.

[David Floyd]

Lonestar, do you agree w/ my analysis?

If not, I would certainly defer to your opinion in this area.

[MrFun]

I'm so scared of China. Their navy is so powerful, that they still haven't figured out how to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

[Lonestar]

Lonestar, do you agree w/ my analysis?

If not, I would certainly defer to your opinion in this area.

Hmmm, in principle.

The PRC is well on it's way to developing a carrier group through the Varyag Shi Lang. The amount of work being on it(completed with lots of machinery being ripped out and put in) leaves no doubt that the Chinese are planning on having it operational sooner rather than later. There are also full-scale mockups of carrier decks at Chinese airbases.



Add this to the story of Chinese aviators training on the Brazilian carrier then yeah, it's clear the Chinese are serious about it.

Having said all that, there's no evidence of new Chinese carrier construction. Chinese surface vessels remain smaller and have shorter legs than the USN(anyone want to guess when the VERY FIRST TIME they refueled at sea was? hint: Right before their much-ballyhooed anti-piracy deployment), which directly leads to less capability(You can have the best electronics in the world, but if you don't have the hull to support the powerplant, it's meaningless).

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the Chinese are going to be greatly increasing their naval ability in the next decade or so, but mostly so that they can act as a partner with the USN, not as an enemy. In otherwords, we may see a Chinese CSG alongside USN CSGs for some kind of UN action. I don't think the Chinese are building the navy to fight the USN, I think they're building a navy for the purposes of influence and power projection, and I really doubt we'll see more than the Varyag at sea for many many years as the PLAN hammer out doctrine and what exactly it is they want out of a carrier(they may ultimately decide they don't want to spend the cash on large-carriers based upon experience with the Varyag).

The USN is going to remain ahead of peer competitors for the foreseable future, and even if we were to end up fighting China for some damn reason, the RoC, RoK, and JMSDF join the USN OOB, which makes it an even trickier proposition for China. And all of those countries have better surface combatants than the PLAN does.

MrFun,

(1)I don't think anyone is saying the ultimate goal of China is to invade Taiwan
(2)Even if it was, I don't think China would invade Taiwan. They'd hammer it into submission.
(3)This is, of course, assuming they think they can get away with it and not having the East Asian navies step in, plus the USN, plus the RAN, France, etc..

[MrFun]

I know

[Drake Tungsten]

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the Chinese are going to be greatly increasing their naval ability in the next decade or so, but mostly so that they can act as a partner with the USN, not as an enemy.

[dannubis]

Why oh why would "communist" China want to invade their biggest foreign customer base?

[Patroklos]

This again? You guys are lucky I am on travel and don't have time to respond

[Theben]

Don't we know it.

[Lonestar]

Don't laugh, we don't have anything like the adversarial relationship with had with the USSR, and China's naval trend has been more along the lines of "we want to play with the big boys" instead of "go to war with the USA"(see the deployment of warships to join the approximately 7 dozen international anti-piracy/MIO task forces in the HoA...they aren't operating by themselves).

Just like nukes, aircraft carriers are a status symbol. One refurbed going-on-20 year old Russian carrier isn't something that can compete with China's immediate neighbors, or project power with long distances by itself.

[Drake Tungsten]

China's naval trend has been more along the lines of "we want to play with the big boys" instead of "go to war with the USA"

No, it's been along the lines of "we want to be able to kill any American ship that dare sail west of Guam"...

One refurbed going-on-20 year old Russian carrier isn't something that can compete with China's immediate neighbors, or project power with long distances by itself.

What makes you think the Chinese are really that interested in projecting naval power a great distance from home? They don't need to do so in order to achieve hegemony in Asia.

[Lonestar]

No, it's been along the lines of "we want to be able to kill any American ship that dare sail west of Guam"...

Yeah? How?

What makes you think the Chinese are really that interested in projecting naval power a great distance from home? They don't need to do so in order to achieve hegemony in Asia.

Yeah, you do. Asia is a big place. And having a less-capable navy than the JMSDF and the RoKN means those two countries, at least, can do a pretty good job of not worrying as much about their opinion on the matter.

[Drake Tungsten]

Yeah? How?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ship_missile

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine

Yeah, you do.

[Sprayber]

Why can't we send in a probe team to sabotage and then blame it on Russia triggering a vendetta between the two?

[Felch]

I think the Chinese social engineering makes them more resilient to probe teams.