The Altera Centauri collection has been brought up to date by Darsnan. It comprises every decent scenario he's been able to find anywhere on the web, going back over 20 years.
25 themes/skins/styles are now available to members. Check the select drop-down at the bottom-left of each page.
Call To Power 2 Cradle 3+ mod in progress: https://apolyton.net/forum/other-games/call-to-power-2/ctp2-creation/9437883-making-cradle-3-fully-compatible-with-the-apolyton-edition
Recessions are bad. Unemployment rises, businesses fail, families break down and lives are ruined.
I hate to disagree, but........
Recessions are not all bad. What causes a recession? Well really a recession is caused by a business cycle. The simple explanation is that economy booms, inflation rises, high employment, credit debt rises, lots of money disappears out of the economy due to interest payments and rising consumer prices. Prices reach a point where demand drops (due to loss of accessibility by some demographics) and over production. Coupled with reduction in money in economy (due to interest payments etc) results in less consumer spending. Inflation halts, companies make losses, unemployment, closures blah blah. How do you cushion a recession? Well the usual chosen method is the government injects money into the economy, be it via infrastructure projects, social security or just plain give cash to people (stimulus packages). Once people have some cash again demand starts to rise and the economy enters the boom cycle once more. Traditionally it's the building sector which is most sensitive to economic change, so that's why people are always interested in what's happening in housing.
The business cycle in a couple of sentences (but to get the full explanation you need two years of micro-economics at uni). A recession is viewed as a necessity in economics to re-balance the economy. If you lived perpetually in boom times inflation (read consumer prices) would continue to rise and could lead to a depression (which is disaster).
A depression is completely different. A depression is where the economy collapses. Instead of inflation slowing it actually does the opposite and sky-rockets. Your typical 'Banana-Republic' so to speak.
Please note I'm not an economist, so I may not be 100% correct. But this is what I remember from my uni course (about 15 years ago).
Boom and bust is exactly what central banks have been trying to escape, by reigning in inflation with judicious use of interest rates. They are not trying to induce recessions, they are trying to avoid them. A recession is only necessary if inflation gets out of hand. Even then, moderate inflation is actually a good thing, in that it soaks up debt (although not so good for those on a fixed income).
The current world recession was caused by a collapse in confidence - too many bad debts, so the banks and other financial institutions stopped lending to each other. Ultimately recessions are caused by lack of confidence, due to various causes, sometimes high interest rates, ala Australia's previous recession in the 90's.
In summary, recessions are bad, they are not necessary and are only brought about when an economy gets out of kilter triggering a collapse in confidence.
High school economics, 25 years of reading the financial pages and living through a few recessions has taught me this.
The current Australian government rules by creating a sense of crisis and then proposing and implementing needed solutions to that crisis it has talked up, whether the crisis is real or not. In the first months of office, that crisis was inflation, some concern but certainly no crisis. Then the global financial crisis hit the world and statements by the Prime Minister and treasurer deliberately overstated the impact of the global economic crisis in Australia causing a crash in consumer and business confidence.
So true to form it proposed and implemented a solution, ie a stimulus package. (Note that the inflation rate it was concerned about earlier had not yet began to fall although it has lowered a little since with the slowdown in growth). The opposition supported the forst instalment of the stimulus totally, but when 2 months later a far bigger package was proposed they opposed it as excessive, generally suggesting that about half of it was necessary only.
Result is the economy is now expanding at a increasing rate, growth in the last quarter figures are available for showed annualized rate of 2.5% with unemploment plateauing at 5.8%. This week the reserve bank increased interest rates and today the unemployment rate declined to 5.7% despite an increase in the participation rate. The economy is now growing strongly generating jobs at virtually a boom rate. But to avoid givng the impression the oppostion is right, the government still maintains that our 'fragile, slow growing economy' needs stimulus for at least another 18 months or so. This load of crap is going to lead to major interest rate increases and a rapid return of inflation, most of which will probably occur very soon after the next election. The government is purposely engineering the circumstances for an early election so it can avoid the goose that is coming in to roost.
Trev, are you aware of how hard the GFC hit the US and Europe? Have you heard the expression "When the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold"?
When the ALP was in opposition, interest rates, set independently by the RBA in response to inflation, were starting to cause a lot of pain. Real interest rates (ie, average repayments as a proportion of average income) were higher than the infamous 17% under Keating.
When the GFC hit, if history was to be believed, Australia was headed for a major recession. Avoiding recessions always overrides concerns over inflation, as the pain is real and immediate.
I agree the Rudd govt is prone to spin, but I honestly believe that were it not for stimulus package and the strong (independent) loosening of fiscal policy by the RBA we would have been in the same boat as the rest of the developed world.
Trev, I wouldn't throw stones if I were you, because despite your 15 year old B. Econ., you demonstrate shaky understanding of economics at best. My engineering degree did supply some basic economics, but when it boils down to it it's really just a matter of reading the commentators, applying some basic maths, understanding of human nature and common sense to weed out the bull****, and voila, supply and demand laid bare.
Your comparison with Turnbull and Hockey is a sloppy analogy, as they're both anti-stimulus (as oppositions of both stripes are across the planet, because they don't want the incumbents to get any credit for helping the situation). Just in case you didn't get it, I am PRO stimulus.
I'd like to note that this will create a massively distorting 'carry trade'. Get low interest US denominated loans, invest them in AUS denominated low-risk investments. A free money machine. Only problem is, there's no such thing.
"Wait a minute..this isn''t FAUX dive, it's just a DIVE!"
"...Mangy dog staggering about, looking vainly for a place to die."
"sauna stories? There are no 'sauna stories'.. I mean.. sauna is sauna. You do by the laws of sauna." -P.
My comparison of you to the Hockey is that like him you talk lots of partial truth, but some is just bull.
Take your claim of "Ultimately recessions are caused by lack of confidence". How was the recession of early 90's and '08-9 related to lack of confidence? In the 90's continual high interest rates (a govt decision before financial de-regulation) drained the economy just a bit too much causing "the recession we had to have". The recent one was caused by too much high-risk credit lending by the financial sector combined with soaring oil prices which led to much unpaid debt and the resulting collapse of much of the credit sector in the US and UK. Since a lot of Asia depended on US credit which suddenly closed to them, it impacted the Asian economies too.
Granted the stock market recession of '01 was due to lowering consumer confidence (stock market crashes of Oct '01) but the one before and after were not caused by consumer confidence.
Take your claim of "Ultimately recessions are caused by lack of confidence". How was the recession of early 90's and '08-9 related to lack of confidence? In the 90's continual high interest rates (a govt decision before financial de-regulation) drained the economy just a bit too much causing "the recession we had to have".
High interest rates reduce confidence that a loan is worth it, or can be afforded.
The recent one was caused by too much high-risk credit lending by the financial sector combined with soaring oil prices which led to much unpaid debt and the resulting collapse of much of the credit sector in the US and UK. Since a lot of Asia depended on US credit which suddenly closed to them, it impacted the Asian economies too.
The credit freeze was precisely a lack of confidence - that the credit would be repaid.
Granted the stock market recession of '01 was due to lowering consumer confidence (stock market crashes of Oct '01) but the one before and after were not caused by consumer confidence.
I don't really know much of them. I'm referring to the real economy.
High interest rates reduce confidence that a loan is worth it, or can be afforded.
You're kidding right? The high interest rates of the late 80's early 90's didn't lower consumer confidence. Look up your facts man, in the second half of 89 and first half of 90 the Aust economy was STILL GROWING! The rates peaked mid-89 and started to come down, but too late as too much money had already been sucked out. The banks ran out of money to lend, no mortgages could be approved and the building industry completely stopped in less than 6 months. You should read some history lessons.
The credit freeze was precisely a lack of confidence - that the credit would be repaid.
Holy crap man I should call you Brumby not Hockey! It's more like air than any real facts. The credit freeze occured because the banking sector had too much confidence in high-risk yields. These high-risk yields failed on the banks and substantially reduced the available credit (the sub-prime bubble burst). This caused the financial sector to freeze credit.... cuz there was nothing left. What the hell does that have to do with confidence? Bloody nothing, that's what!
you demonstrate shaky understanding of economics at best.
I have mostly stated facts, so not sure where you get this statement from. The fact is that in our size economy, 40,000 extra jobs in one month is boom growth if it continues ( it may be some statistical error seeing it is one months figures so far) so caution needs to be exercised when considering how much stimulus is appropiate, unfortunately I have seen no such caution.
PHP Code:
Trev, are you aware of how hard the GFC hit the US and Europe? Have you heard the expression "When the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold"?
The global economic crisis hit USA and Europe extremely hard, very loose fiscal policy in some countries combined with too low interest rates set up the boom, then bust. The bust was worsened in Europe and Britain by Central Banks that kept interest rates at contractionary levels until well after the recession started.
But the Australian economy now reflects more what is happening in the fast developing economies of Asia, not what happens in the USA or even Japan now. So the USA only gives us a tickle in the throat now, not the cold or flu.
I actually have very little respect for economists in general, they are like a flock of sheep usually, totally unwilling to deviate from the general consensus in their forecasts, so when an economy like Australia is bucking the world trend, they ignore the bucking and continue to forecast low growth like the rest of the developed economies have. But our unemployment rate has not increased now for 4 months, and has now fallen, so there is a clear trend of good growth, blinded the wool of the sheep next to them, the economists cannot see it. I stay in the open paddock and therefore can see more.
House prices have in the last 12 months increased by 18% in Melbourne, one of our 2 big cities, encouragement is not needed there. My brother in Sydney tells me that in his suburb, apartments are sold within a week or two of entering the market, prices have risen substantially after about 5 years of poor growth. There is now a lot of confidence in our economy and people are willing to pay increased prices to participate in what is coming. It is past time for the government to stop the stimulus and prevent the boom that is rapidly gaining steam, before it goes bust in a big way from serious overheating.
House prices have in the last 12 months increased by 18% in Melbourne, one of our 2 big cities, encouragement is not needed there. My brother in Sydney tells me that in his suburb, apartments are sold within a week or two of entering the market, prices have risen substantially after about 5 years of poor growth.
To note, much of this might be due to the easing of of foreign property ownership and a rise in property investment in Australia by wealthy Chinese and Indian investors.
There's no game in The Sims. It's not a game. It's like watching a tank of goldfishes and feed them occasionally. - Urban Ranger
you demonstrate shaky understanding of economics at best.
I have mostly stated facts, so not sure where you get this statement from. The fact is that in our size economy, 40,000 extra jobs in one month is boom growth if it continues ( it may be some statistical error seeing it is one months figures so far) so caution needs to be exercised when considering how much stimulus is appropiate, unfortunately I have seen no such caution.
[
Sorry Trev, that second "Trev" in my reply that you've quoted there should have read "Dale". I agree that it may be time to start winding back the stimulus, which is why interest rates are rising, but a lot of the stimulus to come was committed to over a year ago. It is arguable that because it was committed to the confidence was achieved, ie, that's why it worked.
Dale, you've said that both recessions you're referring to were caused by a drying up of credit because of money volume limitations. This is not true. There is always more money available, as long as the purchaser is willing to pay its price (the former recession) and the lender is willing to take the risk (the latter recession). The first part of your response described a still growing economy after interest rates peaked, but what was business borrowing/spending doing?
Asian savings accounts are still chockers - the recent boom could have continued, had lenders been willing to lend. (Thank goodness they weren't, because things were just getting silly). They weren't willing to lend, because they feared they wouldn't be repaid.
The credit dried up because all the bank's reserves were lost due to writing off so many mortgage debts to banks during the sub-prime crash. Thus bank's reserves were all used up and there was no money left to lend out. The write-off was so large the US Fed Reserve Bank actually had to cover the shortfall between the write-offs and reserves which resulted in a diminished economy and the start of the recession.
Tweet
Comment