A man is sentenced to be hanged, and is told that a. he will be hanged on the following week, b. he will be hanged at noon, and c. he will not know in advance on which day he will be hanged.
The man reasons that he cannot be hanged on Saturday, because on Friday afternoon the man would know in advance that he was to be hanged on Saturday. Likewise, the man cannot be hanged on Friday, because on Thursday afternoon the man would know in advance that he was to be hanged on Friday (for if he weren't hanged on Friday then he would know in advance that he was to be hanged on Saturday). Following this line of reasoning, the man realizes that he cannot be hanged on any other day of the week, and is convinced that he has escaped punishment.
The following week, they hanged him on Wednesday.
What the hell just happened?
Some possible ways to resolve the paradox I've come across:
a. The prisoner is correct -- logically, he shouldn't have been executed.
b. The prisoner cannot make a valid inference about his Saturday execution until Friday afternoon. In other words, when Friday afternoon rolls around he can say "logically, you can't execute me on Saturday!" However, prior to Friday afternoon he's not allowed to (logically) say this.
c. The prisoner's reasoning is self-defeating. If he fails to conclude that he cannot be executed on, e.g., Saturday, then he will be caught completely unawares when he is executed on Saturday. If he successfully concludes that he cannot be executed on Saturday, then he will still be caught completely unawares when he is executed on Saturday. ("But... you said that I wouldn't know in advance the day of my execution!" "Did you expect us to execute you today?" "Yes!" "Then logically we shouldn't be executing you, right?" "Yes..." "Then logically you didn't expect us to execute you today, therefore we're executing you." "Goddammit!")
d. Suppose the executioner flips a coin every morning -- if it comes up heads then he'll execute the prisoner, otherwise the prisoner gets a 1-day reprieve. There is about a 98.5% chance that the prisoner will be executed prior to Saturday, and the execution will come as a surprise to the executioner and logically will also come as a surprise to the prisoner (if the executioner isn't 100% certain that he's going to kill the prisoner, then how can the prisoner be 100% certain?). So, there's about a 1.5% chance that the execution will happen on Saturday and won't come as a surprise (assuming that the executioner doesn't flip a coin on Saturday and hold over the execution until the following week on a 'tails' result), and about a 98.5% chance that the prisoner will be executed and won't have foreseen the date of his execution. Thus the stated conditions of the prisoner's execution are (mostly) true.
The man reasons that he cannot be hanged on Saturday, because on Friday afternoon the man would know in advance that he was to be hanged on Saturday. Likewise, the man cannot be hanged on Friday, because on Thursday afternoon the man would know in advance that he was to be hanged on Friday (for if he weren't hanged on Friday then he would know in advance that he was to be hanged on Saturday). Following this line of reasoning, the man realizes that he cannot be hanged on any other day of the week, and is convinced that he has escaped punishment.
The following week, they hanged him on Wednesday.
What the hell just happened?
Some possible ways to resolve the paradox I've come across:
a. The prisoner is correct -- logically, he shouldn't have been executed.
b. The prisoner cannot make a valid inference about his Saturday execution until Friday afternoon. In other words, when Friday afternoon rolls around he can say "logically, you can't execute me on Saturday!" However, prior to Friday afternoon he's not allowed to (logically) say this.
c. The prisoner's reasoning is self-defeating. If he fails to conclude that he cannot be executed on, e.g., Saturday, then he will be caught completely unawares when he is executed on Saturday. If he successfully concludes that he cannot be executed on Saturday, then he will still be caught completely unawares when he is executed on Saturday. ("But... you said that I wouldn't know in advance the day of my execution!" "Did you expect us to execute you today?" "Yes!" "Then logically we shouldn't be executing you, right?" "Yes..." "Then logically you didn't expect us to execute you today, therefore we're executing you." "Goddammit!")
d. Suppose the executioner flips a coin every morning -- if it comes up heads then he'll execute the prisoner, otherwise the prisoner gets a 1-day reprieve. There is about a 98.5% chance that the prisoner will be executed prior to Saturday, and the execution will come as a surprise to the executioner and logically will also come as a surprise to the prisoner (if the executioner isn't 100% certain that he's going to kill the prisoner, then how can the prisoner be 100% certain?). So, there's about a 1.5% chance that the execution will happen on Saturday and won't come as a surprise (assuming that the executioner doesn't flip a coin on Saturday and hold over the execution until the following week on a 'tails' result), and about a 98.5% chance that the prisoner will be executed and won't have foreseen the date of his execution. Thus the stated conditions of the prisoner's execution are (mostly) true.
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