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Some Thoughts on Central Banking

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  • Some Thoughts on Central Banking

    It may surprise some that a gold nut like me would say this, but I have come to re-evaluate the mid-century central banking systems like the US federal reserve, and I've changed my opinion somewhat.

    The federal reserve system, in its theoretical basis, is not altogether bad and even ingenious in that it tries to place monetary policy outside of month-to-month government whims.

    The idea (on paper at least) was to achieve a middle ground between privately issued money and what some call 'fiat' money.

    The more controversial idea (IMO) is the idea that interest rates could be 'rationalized', that is to say that a group of technocrats would know better than the government or the market.

    However, in its execution, the group of experts were all big bankers. It sounds counter-intuitive, but the last people who should be trusted with a nations monetary policy are those who have such obvious private interests in that policy.

    In an ideal world, an independent central bank like the Fed theoretically could be a tremendous brake on government spending and a guarantor of the long-term value of citizens savings.

    But I think the last few years have exposed some major weaknesses especially in the makeup of the boards and chairmen.

    There should be reforms aimed at shutting out former and current banking industry and treasury department people to prevent the incestuous private/public corporatism seen in the last few years, and strict regulations preventing bankers from 'growing' their own blue-ribbon academics.

    Maybe even radical reforms are necessary like making the appointments and membership of the board secret (especially from the banking industry and most government personnel outside a congressional committee), or farming out the jobs to academics in disinterested neutral nations.

    Anything that would actually create a truly independent and trustworthy central bank.
    "Wait a minute..this isn''t FAUX dive, it's just a DIVE!"
    "...Mangy dog staggering about, looking vainly for a place to die."
    "sauna stories? There are no 'sauna stories'.. I mean.. sauna is sauna. You do by the laws of sauna." -P.

  • #2
    Seeker, I have no idea what your complaint is. Central banks have kept inflation low and stable for 25 years in the developed world.

    As far as central bankers having some sort of private interest in market manipulation, I'd be interested to hear your specific accusations.

    Bernanke is a lifelong academic
    Greenspan held most of his assets in a blind trust during the first part of his Fed chairmanship (until 1997). From then on he held most of his assets in treasuries
    Not sure what Volcker's assets were, but he's the one who drove inflation down to a reasonable level; given your other statements, I'd think you would approve
    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
    Stadtluft Macht Frei
    Killing it is the new killing it
    Ultima Ratio Regum

    Comment


    • #3
      Oh, I do indeed approve of Volcker!

      If only his policy had continued, become status quo. Not at his emergency high rates, but at least decently high and most importantly stable.

      My criticism is interest rates below 3-4%. For long periods of time. Therefore, only the recent Greenspan/Bernanke fed, especially the low rates during the greenspan period.


      And, of course, the chairman is not the only member of the board and is influenced by the 'characters' that surround him.

      I'm very suspicious that the greenspan/bernanke regime seemed so responsive to "crisis" and short-term events, which indicates to me that they must have been under tremendous pressure from SOME source. Why did the feds discipline buckle under pressure? There must have been influence.

      It's my opinion that the central bank should above all maintain stable rates above 2% and they have not been doing that recently ('98-'09), so my theory is the obvious, outside private influence.
      "Wait a minute..this isn''t FAUX dive, it's just a DIVE!"
      "...Mangy dog staggering about, looking vainly for a place to die."
      "sauna stories? There are no 'sauna stories'.. I mean.. sauna is sauna. You do by the laws of sauna." -P.

      Comment


      • #4
        My criticism is interest rates below 3-4%.


        And yet inflation has remained low and stable. Why do you have a specific interest rate in mind, if it's been demonstrated that inflation can be held in check with lower rates?

        I'm very suspicious that the greenspan/bernanke regime seemed so responsive to "crisis" and short-term events, which indicates to me that they must have been under tremendous pressure from SOME source. Why did the feds discipline buckle under pressure? There must have been influence.


        Again, I don't see what your problem is. You seem to be concerned with keeping inflation low. They did that. From a monetarist perspective, in a crisis monetary velocity drops and it's the central bank's job to increase the monetary base in order to maintain the price level. Not doing so can lead to deflation and an overadjustment due to wage stickiness.

        It's my opinion that the central bank should above all maintain stable rates above 2% and they have not been doing that recently ('98-'09), so my theory is the obvious, outside private influence.


        Seeker, with only one lever (purchase and sale of short term treasuries) the central bank has only ONE AVAILABLE TARGET. It can target a given interest rate or it can target price levels. Why do you think that targeting a single interest rate is more important than targeting price levels?
        12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
        Stadtluft Macht Frei
        Killing it is the new killing it
        Ultima Ratio Regum

        Comment


        • #5
          The balance is between fiscal policy and monetary policy, and really doesn't matter who is running the show (bankers or politicians) as long as each show is allowed to go on without interference from the other, only act and react accordingly. The problem comes in when powerful people attempt to influence other not so powerful people in channels they shouldn't put their nose into, i.e./e.g. presidents and presidential appointees flexing power in the central bank. Push overs like Bernanke shouldn't have listened and bow to their will, but they are weak willed people. IMO, Greenspan wouldn't have been their puppet. It also doesn't help that the government is giving companies like GE bank status, wtf?

          Government should stick to fiscal policy and Central Bank to monetary and ne'er the twain shall meet.
          Monkey!!!

          Comment


          • #6
            "it's the central bank's job to increase the monetary base in order to maintain the price level. Not doing so can lead to deflation and an overadjustment due to wage stickiness."

            You say this as if it were not disputed by anyone.
            "Wait a minute..this isn''t FAUX dive, it's just a DIVE!"
            "...Mangy dog staggering about, looking vainly for a place to die."
            "sauna stories? There are no 'sauna stories'.. I mean.. sauna is sauna. You do by the laws of sauna." -P.

            Comment


            • #7
              I gave you a chance to dispute it further on in my post:

              Seeker, with only one lever (purchase and sale of short term treasuries) the central bank has only ONE AVAILABLE TARGET. It can target a given interest rate or it can target price levels. Why do you think that targeting a single interest rate is more important than targeting price levels?
              12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
              Stadtluft Macht Frei
              Killing it is the new killing it
              Ultima Ratio Regum

              Comment


              • #8
                Is it really decentralized if you move central banking to "West banking", for instance.

                Originally posted by instance
                thanks
                np
                To us, it is the BEAST.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I worked for an NCB 2012

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