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Economic crisis: lessons learned?

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  • Economic crisis: lessons learned?

    Not really, apparently.





    Goldman Sachs: Gambling With Your Money?


    Goldman Sachs is using its new taxpayer-subsidized status to bring increased risk to the financial system, a group of House members charged Monday. They want to know why the Federal Reserve is allowing it.

    The group on Monday sent a letter to the Fed asking for an explanation of why Goldman Sachs is being allowed to speculate wildly even while officially redesignating itself a bank holding company, which theoretically means stricter regulation. The bank designation gives Goldman access to dirt-cheap Federal Reserve loans.

    Goldman initially applied for the new designation last fall, so that it could access bailout funds (since paid back). Because bank holding companies, unlike investment banks, have access to a host of valuable taxpayer subsidies, they are required to reduce the risk associated with their investment activity. But Goldman then applied to the Federal Reserve for an exemption to the rules, saying that it takes time to alter a business model. The exemption was granted in February -- and Goldman went on to take even greater risks. Its Value-at-Risk model, a widely used measure of the risk of loss, recently showed potential trading losses at $245 million a day; in May 2008, it was $184 million a day.

    The bets paid off in the most recent quarter as the market rose and Goldman posted stellar earnings. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, was similarly given an exemption by the Fed but did what it said it would do and reduced its risk. The company lost money, largely as a result of that decision.

    The likely result: Other players on Wall Street will follow Goldman back toward the cliff they dangled over just months ago. In announcing its lousy earnings, Morgan Stanley assured that it will increase the risk it takes in the future. Citigroup is racing to increase its exposure, too, handing another billion dollars worth of chips to its riskiest traders, bringing its hedge fund operations to close to $2 billion. On the brink of collapse, it had scaled such investing down to around $800 million.

    Lucas van Praag, a Goldman spokesman, declined to respond directly to the charges in the letter, but said that the firm is working to reduce its exposure.

    "We're very cognizant of risks inherent in risk taking. We have one of the highest capitalizations of any bank," said van Praag. He said that the Value-at-Risk numbers, while the only publicly released measure of risk, are only one metric and that internal measures show the bank has reduced its exposure over the past year.

    He also took a dig at other Wall Street players who have avoided using mark-to-market accounting in an effort to fluff their balance sheets. Earlier this spring, banks lobbied Congress and the Financial Accounting Standards Board to soften mark-to-market rules. The new rule allowed banks to inflate their balance sheets by claiming that an asset was worth more than it could fetch on the market because the market was frozen. Goldman Sach, said van Praag, doesn't use that slight of hand, so its balance sheet is an honest reflection of its exposure.

    Story continues below

    "We have dramatically reduced our leverage and as a mark-to-market firm--we aggressively mark our assets to market--our leverage ratio is a true reflection of risk," said van Praag.

    Nevertheless, as Wall Street follows Goldman, overall systemic risk is ramped up. Meanwhile, Congress is debating whether to give the Fed authority to regulate systemic risk throughout the economy. The congressional letter puts the Fed on the spot, demanding that it explain why it's allowing Goldman to use taxpayer dollars to increase systemic risk.

    "The only difference between Goldman Sachs today and Goldman Sachs last year is that today, the company is officially gambling with government money. This is the very definition of 'heads we win, tails the taxpayers lose,'" reads the letter.

    Read the full letter:

    Dear Chairman Bernanke:

    In the fall, Goldman Sachs secured access to government funding by converting from an investment bank into an ordinary bank. Despite this shift, the CFO of the company, David Viniar, said last week that the company is continuing to operate as if it were still a high-risk investment bank: "Our model really never changed," he noted in a quote to Bloomberg. "We've said very consistently that our business model remained the same."

    This statement seems accurate. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve granted a temporary exemption to Goldman Sachs from standard bank holding company Market Risk Rules, allowing the company to continue operating as if it were an investment bank. The company and its employees have taken full advantage of its new government subsidies, and the retained ability to bet big. In its most recent quarter, Goldman Sachs earned high profits of $2.7 billion on revenues of $13.76 billion, with 78 percent of this revenue derived from high-risk trading and principal investments. It paid out much of this revenue in compensation, setting aside a record $772,858 for each employee at an annualized rate. The company's own measurement of risk, its Value-at-Risk model, recently showed potential trading losses at $245 million a day, up from $184 million last May.

    Despite its exemption from bank holding company regulations, Goldman Sachs has access to taxpayer subsidies, including FDIC-backed bonds, TARP money (since repaid), counterparty payments funneled through AIG, and an implicit backstop from the taxpayer that allowed a public equity offering in a queasy market. The only difference between Goldman Sachs today and Goldman Sachs last year is that today, the company is officially gambling with government money. This is the very definition of "heads we win, tails the taxpayers lose."

    It is worth noting that there sometimes might be good reasons to grant temporary regulatory exemptions, considering that companies cannot instantly change their business model. Still, given Goldman Sachs's last quarter results and public statements that it is not changing its business model, we are worried that the company is using its regulatory freedom to evade capital requirements and take outsized risks with taxpayers on the hook for losses.

    With this in mind, our questions are as follows:

    1) In the letter granting a regulatory exemption to Goldman Sachs, you stated that the SEC-approved VaR models it is now using are sufficiently conservative for the transition period to bank holding company. Please justify this statement.

    2) If Goldman Sachs were required to adhere to standard Market Risk Rules imposed by the Federal Reserve on ordinary bank holding companies, how would its capital requirements differ from the current regulatory regime?

    3) What is the difference in exposure to the taxpayer between these two regulatory regimes?

    4) What is the difference in total risk to the portfolio between these two regulatory regimes?

    5) Goldman Sachs stated that "As of June 26, 2009, total capital was $254.05 billion, consisting of $62.81 billion in total shareholders' equity (common shareholders' equity of $55.86 billion and preferred stock of $6.96 billion) and $191.24 billion in unsecured long-term borrowings." As a percentage of capital, that's a lot of long-term unsecured debt. Is any of this coming from the Government? In this last quarter, how much capital has Goldman Sachs received from the Federal Reserve and other government facilities such as FDIC-guaranteed debt, either directly or indirectly?

    6) Many risk-management experts, most notably best-selling author Nassim Taleb, note that VaR models can dramatically understate risk. What is your overall view of Taleb's argument, and of the utility of Value-at-Risk models as regulatory tools?

    As we work through legislative conversations regarding systemic risk, these questions are taking on increased significance. We appreciate your time and the efforts you are making to explain the actions of the Federal Reserve to Congress, and to taxpayers.

    Sincerely,

    Alan Grayson (D-Fla.)

    Brad Miller (D-N.C.)

    Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.)

    Elijah Cummings (D-Md.)

    Ron Paul (R-Texas)

    Tom Perriello (D-Va.)

    Maxine Waters (D-Calif.)

    Jackie Speier (D-Calif.)

    Maurice Hinchey (D-N.Y.)

    Walter Jones (R-N.C.)
    Let me fire a cheap shot here: as long as unchecked greed is hard-coded into our current ultracapitalist corporate society, nothing much is going to change.
    "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
    "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

  • #2
    Goldman rage is so ****ing hilarious to me. GS was BY FAR the most prudent large fincorp during the last couple of years, which is why they continued to make money while their competition died.

    If they make money, they're evil. If they lose money they're evil.

    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
    Stadtluft Macht Frei
    Killing it is the new killing it
    Ultima Ratio Regum

    Comment


    • #3
      The lesson I've learned is that most people who comment on financial stuff know just about as much about the subject as most people who comment on cosmology.
      12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
      Stadtluft Macht Frei
      Killing it is the new killing it
      Ultima Ratio Regum

      Comment


      • #4


        Goldman Sachs VaR Reaches Record on Risks Led by Equity Trading
        By Christine Harper

        July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ratcheted up risk-taking to an all-time high in the second quarter, increasing equity bets 58 percent to amass record trading revenue and quarterly earnings.

        Value-at-risk, a measure of how much money the firm could lose in a day’s trading, rose to $245 million from $240 million in the first quarter, the New York-based firm said yesterday. The figure stood at $184 million last May (see table, below). Most of the increase during the second quarter stemmed from equity-trading risk, which surged to an average of $60 million per day from $38 million in the previous three months.

        Goldman Sachs’s move to become a bank holding company in September to win the financial backing of the Federal Reserve didn’t curb the firm’s appetite for wagering its capital on trading, a formula that fueled Wall Street profit and compensation records in 2007. Second-quarter earnings and revenue also benefited from reduced competition, following the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

        “Our model really never changed,” Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said yesterday in an interview. “We’ve said very consistently that our business model remained the same.”

        Goldman Sachs, which was the biggest U.S. securities firm before converting to a bank, is the only one of its major Wall Street rivals that hasn’t been transformed by the financial crisis. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September, while Bear Stearns Cos. was taken over by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. was sold to Bank of America Corp.

        Capital Buffer

        Morgan Stanley, which ranked second to Goldman, has said it is scaling back trading risk and principal investments. The firm acquired control of Citigroup Inc.’s Smith Barney brokerage in May to focus on selling financial advice to clients. Analysts predict Morgan Stanley will report a third consecutive quarterly loss next week, after disappointing them with weaker-than- expected trading revenue last quarter.

        Goldman Sachs’s value-at-risk, or VaR, has climbed in tandem with the buffer of capital the firm has at its disposal. The bank’s total shareholder equity was $62.8 billion at the end of the second quarter, up from $44.8 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2008, boosted by stock sales in September and again in April.

        While the risk-taking has paid off for Goldman Sachs so far, some question whether it could be a perilous example for others to follow.

        “Do we want other people trying to emulate what they’re doing, perhaps not with the same skill or resources?” asked Arthur Wilmarth, a professor at George Washington University law school who specializes in issues related to banking. “Regulators ought to be concerned and say ‘Is Goldman making this money with any kind of reasonable prudence?’”

        ‘Disciplined Fashion’

        Equities trading generated a record $3.18 billion of revenue, up 59 percent from the first quarter and 28 percent from a year earlier. Trading in fixed-income, currencies and commodities brought in $6.8 billion, topping last quarter’s record by 4 percent.

        “Goldman saw that they were being paid to take risk and they did the appropriate thing,” said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees $13.8 billion including Goldman Sachs shares. “If you can generate commensurate return to the risk you’re taking, you do it and you do it in a disciplined fashion.”

        Equities trading revenue benefited from a gain in many of the major world markets, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising 12.6 percent between March 27, the end of Goldman’s fiscal first-quarter, and June 26, the end of its second quarter. The U.K.’s FTSE-100 climbed 8.8 percent during the same period and the Hang Seng index jumped 31.7 percent.

        Rates, Currencies

        “The interesting thing about the equity market is it probably has the most correlation of any market between the direction of prices and how we do,” Viniar said yesterday in a conference call with analysts. “It is the one market where you tend to see more activity when the market’s going up because people are more confident. They feel better. They do more.”

        Goldman Sachs trimmed its average daily risk on interest rates to $205 million from $218 million in the first quarter. The figure was still up from $144 million in the second quarter of last year.

        Viniar, who turns 54 next week, told analysts that interest-rate revenue in the second quarter was “strong but down from a record first quarter as client activity declined and spreads narrowed modestly.”

        Revenue from trading currencies rose in the quarter from the previous period on higher trading volumes, Viniar said. The firm’s average daily risk in currencies rose to $39 million from $38 million in the first quarter, the company reported.

        Level 3

        Value-at-risk to commodity prices was unchanged from the first quarter at $40 million and Viniar said revenue in that segment was down from the first quarter because customer activity diminished.

        Goldman Sachs reduced the assets on its balance sheet to $890 billion on June 26 from $925 billion at the end of March. The company’s leverage, the ratio of the bank’s assets to shareholder equity, dropped in the quarter to 14.2 from 14.6 at the end of March.

        “I do not expect our balance sheet to stay this low,” Viniar said. “We’re in an environment where all of the opportunities are in very, very liquid items, so things move off our balance sheet very quickly.”

        So-called Level 3 assets, those that are hardest to value and trade, fell to about $54 billion, or 6 percent of total assets, from $59 billion in the first quarter, or 6.4 percent.

        The table below shows Goldman Sachs’s average daily value- at-risk and shareholder equity, from 2007 to present, according to company reports.

        Quarter End Value-at-Risk Shareholder Equity
        (Daily Average) (at Quarter End)

        June 26, 2009: $245 million $62.81 billion
        March 27, 2009: $240 million $63.55 billion
        Nov. 28, 2008: $197 million $64.37 billion
        Aug. 29, 2008: $181 million $45.60 billion
        May 30, 2008: $184 million $44.82 billion
        Feb. 29, 2008: $157 million $42.63 billion
        Nov. 30, 2007: $151 million $42.80 billion
        Aug. 31, 2007: $139 million $39.12 billion
        May 25, 2007: $133 million $38.46 billion
        Feb. 23, 2007: $127 million $36.90 billion
        “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
        "Capitalism ho!"

        Comment


        • #5
          VaR?



          Why not just consult a crystal ball?
          12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
          Stadtluft Macht Frei
          Killing it is the new killing it
          Ultima Ratio Regum

          Comment


          • #6
            VaR is a ****ing joke. The only reason people still calculate it is that it's required by regulators.

            Real risk managers look at MUCH different measures of risk-taking.
            12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
            Stadtluft Macht Frei
            Killing it is the new killing it
            Ultima Ratio Regum

            Comment


            • #7
              It seems we have learned nothing.
              Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

              Comment


              • #8
                Also, it doesn't say (that I could see) what VaR it was. 1 day 5% VaR? 5 day 1%?
                12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                Stadtluft Macht Frei
                Killing it is the new killing it
                Ultima Ratio Regum

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
                  VaR is a ****ing joke. The only reason people still calculate it is that it's required by regulators.

                  Real risk managers look at MUCH different measures of risk-taking.
                  What do they look at?
                  “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
                  "Capitalism ho!"

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
                    Goldman rage is so ****ing hilarious to me. GS was BY FAR the most prudent large fincorp during the last couple of years, which is why they continued to make money while their competition died.

                    If they make money, they're evil. If they lose money they're evil.

                    You haven't really read the article, have you?
                    "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
                    "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      VaR is a measure of possible losses using diffusive assumptions. It's precisely the sort of stupid "everything is Gaussian" measure that so many people complain about in the context of pricing derivatives. Real risk managers spend much more of their time worrying about tail events. That won't be captured on a VaR measure.
                      12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                      Stadtluft Macht Frei
                      Killing it is the new killing it
                      Ultima Ratio Regum

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Traianvs View Post
                        You haven't really read the article, have you?
                        Oh, but I did.

                        It's indicative of complete ignorance on the author's part. The fact that you swallowed it at face value is indicative both of your ignorance and your credulousness.

                        12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                        Stadtluft Macht Frei
                        Killing it is the new killing it
                        Ultima Ratio Regum

                        Comment


                        • #13


                          Just checked. The author isn't EVEN a financial reporter. He's a congressional reporter.

                          12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                          Stadtluft Macht Frei
                          Killing it is the new killing it
                          Ultima Ratio Regum

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Oh boy you never change do you? I don't mind if you have an argument, but just say it already instead of going into one of your cliché frenzies

                            Well instead of trashtalking then why is GS continuing to engage in high-risk investing, despite your claim that it was one of the more prudent corps in the past few years. Also taking into account the fact that Morgan Stanley is about to do the same things GS is doing right now.

                            In the end that's not even what it's about. If GS says it hasn't changed it's business model, then they have no right to that taxpayer's money. It's that simple really.
                            "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
                            "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

                            Comment


                            • #15

                              Well instead of trashtalking then why is GS continuing to engage in high-risk investing


                              When did you stop beating your wife?

                              Also taking into account the fact that Morgan Stanley is about to do the same things GS is doing right now


                              No, MS is NOT about to do "the same thing" GS is doing right now.


                              In the end that's not even what it's about. If GS says it hasn't changed it's business model, then they have no right to that taxpayer's money. It's that simple really.




                              You literally don't have a clue what any of this is about, do you? You just swallow at face value the claims that GS is being financed with taxpayer money and that they're engaging in some sort of wild risk taking.

                              12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                              Stadtluft Macht Frei
                              Killing it is the new killing it
                              Ultima Ratio Regum

                              Comment

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