The F-15 production line wasn't going to be shut down if the Japanese weren't allowed to order some planes. The practical arguments for selling the F-22 to Japan are much stronger than those for selling the F-15 were, yet there are no signs that it will ever happen.
That's why we're not selling the F-22 to anyone. It's just too advanced to let anyone have it. The aircraft we already sell to our allies already outperforms any threat they are likely to face - hell, the F-15 as an air-to-air record of 104-0, and has shot down everything from a MiG-21 to a MiG-29, with quite a few other aircraft in between.
As for the Japanese Constitution question, I was pretty sure the 1% figure is an aspect of Article 9. Upon review, it isn't, so mea culpa. OTOH, I do know that Japan has consistently NOT spent above 1% of total GDP on the military, and that at least the reason for that is certain terminology in Article 9 (as well as regional political considerations). They do spend right up to the limit, and replacing the F-15 fleet with F-22s, to any significant degree, would certainly put that number up over 1%, given the higher up front cost and operating cost of the Raptor.
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